Core CPI

It's All About This Friday's Payrolls: Key Events In The Coming Week

After Friday's Jackson Hole repricing of Fed hike expectations, which made it clear that the fate of a September rate hike is now in the hands of the August payrolls number, the main risk event of the week is therefore this Friday's US NFPs for which consensus expects a reading of 180K, down from last month's 217K print. A number substantially above this will make a September hike virtually certain, and potentially risks roiling markets as good news will likely be bad news this time around.

Core CPI Remains Above Fed Mandated 2% For 9th Straight Month

Core CPI (ex food and energy) rose 2.2% YoY (below the 2.3% expectations) but remains above The Fed's 2%-mandate for the 9th straight month. The modest disappointments across the board in CPI data were led by a drop in energy-related prices (down 1.6%) with food prices unchanged. The headline CPI data was unchanged month-over-month, the weakest price change since Feb 2016.

Key Events In The Peak Vacation Season Week

With Wall Street hitting peak vacation season, it is a quiet week for news. The key economic release this week is CPI inflation on Tuesday. There are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week. Many will be looking for signs of hawkishness Minutes from the July FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday.

The Bank of Japan Will Be The Top Shareholder Of 55 Companies By The End Of 2017

With the BOJ already a top-five owner of 81 companies in Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average, the BOJ is on course to become the No. 1 shareholder in 55 of those firms by the end of next year. Just as insane, the central bank owned about 60% of Japan’s domestic ETFs at the end of June. This is up from just over half as of a few months ago suggesting that the BOJ is gobbling up equities at an unprecedented pace.

Preview Of Key Events In The Coming Week

After last week's central bank and GDP fireworks, we have another busy week on deck culminating with Friday's jobs report, the 100% priced in BOE rate cut, as well as a possible easing by the RBA.Here is the full breakdown.

The FOMC Butterfly That Will Ruin The World

Imagine the financial crisis knocked you out and you did not wake up from the coma that followed until this day. Then, presented with the following three charts you were asked to guess where the federal funds rate was trading...

Treasuries Will Tell You All You Need To Know

Even with the S&P 500 hovering at all time highs and currencies moving all over the place, Bloomberg's Richard Breslow says the only asset class that is dispositive right now is bonds.

What Is Helicopter Money? Goldman Explains

Here is a useful primer for all those wondering just what is coming, courtesy of Goldman Sachs, which explains the nuances of monetary policy's endgame: Helicopter Money.

Here We Go Again - Stockman Warns Of August 2007 Redux

Nearly everywhere on the planet the giant financial bubbles created by the central banks during the last two decades are fracturing. The latest examples are the crashing bank stocks in Italy and elsewhere in Europe and the sudden trading suspensions by four UK commercial property funds. If this is beginning to sound like August 2007 that’s because it is. And the denials from the casino operators are coming in just as thick and fast.

Futures Stumble As Global Bond Yields Drop To All Time Lows, Precious Metals Spike

Whether it is due to the conclusion of quarter-end window dressing, or due to a more poor manufacturing data out of China overnight, but the new quarter is starting off poorly for risk with Europe flat and US equities lower, while the scramble for safety means that bond yields across the developed world just hit new all time lows as precious metals are surging once again on ongoing speculation central banks will do anything to keep markets propped up and buy up even more assets.

Preview Of Today's ECB Announcement

With the ECB announcement due in a few minutes, followed by Draghi's press conference, today's ECB meeting should be a relatively dull affair as they are currently in 'wait and see' mode with regards to previous policy actions. As RanSquawk notes, general consensus among analysts is that the ECB are to keep rates on hold this month and avoid added stimulus.

Why This Friday's Payrolls Report Could See A Big Miss

When the main economic event this week hits this Friday at 8:30 am EDT, when the BLS releases the May payrolls report, Wall Street consensus wil be expecting a 160,000 print, a number which will have a big impact on market expectations for a Fed rate hike at the June or July FOMC meeting. However, consensus may be disappointed for one reason: the Verizon strike could chop off as much as 35,000 workers from the headline payrolls print.

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The Inflation Tipping-Point

The increasingly obvious trend reversal in inflation, amid softening growth, indicates the long predicted arrival of stagflation. While not unexpected, this is likely to propel the gold price higher.