Core CPI

"ECB Or Not To Be": A Preview Of What Mario Draghi Will Say

Questions on possible exit scenarios will dominate the press conference. While acknowledging the strength of the economy, Draghi is likely to counter any ideas of an imminent and rapid path towards ending QE, instead urging patience with the still-subdued inflation outlook.

Dollar Tumbles, Euro Soars After Obamacare Repeal Dies; China Intervenes To Halt Rout

The Bloomberg Dollar Index tumbled to a fresh 10-month low after two more Republican defections on Monday night doomed the proposed GOP healthcare plan in the Senate. And while Treasuries rose on concerns about inflationary pressures and the viability of the Trump stimulus agenda, S&P futures rebounded gingerly from session lows, and were up 0.1%

Key Events In The Coming Week: The Summer Doldrums Arrive

With little on the US economic docket in the coming days, this week's focus is on the ECB and BoJ meeting along with minutes from the RBA and the Riksbank. In the US The key economic release this week is housing starts on Thursday. There are no scheduled Fed speaking engagements this week.

Sleepy Overnight Session Interrupted By Chinese Market Turmoil

While it was indeed a generally quiet session (with Japan markets closed), US equity futures continued their run into record territory (ES up 0.1% to 2,458.50), and Europe fractionally lower, the early Monday focus was on the previously discussed turmoil for Chinese markets where despite a solid set of Chinese data small caps tumbled, selling off into the close after further warnings of regulatory scrutiny and deleveraging,

Goldman Revises Its Fed Rate Hike Odds After Latest Disappointing Data

"We adjusted down our Fed odds accordingly. We now believe there is a 5% probability that the next rate hike will come in September, a 5% probability that it will come in November, and a 50% probability that it will come in December (a 60% cumulative probability of at least three hikes this year)."

Global Shares Hit Another Record High In Lethargic Session Ahead Of US Data Deluge

It was another painfully low-volume overnight session, which however did not prevent global stocks from hitting another record highs, capping their best week in over two months as the dollar stayed close to nine-month lows following Yellen's dovish retreat in which she noted caution on persistently low inflation as odds of future rate hikes in 2017 and 2018 dropped.

Global Stocks Rise Amid Strong Economic Data; Yen Drops To 2 Month Low As Oil Resumes Slide

In a quiet overnight session, S&P 500 futures are fractionally in the green (2,426, +0.2%) with European and Asian stocks as oil drops second day after an initial ramp higher amid speculation that LIbya and Nigeria may be asked to cap their production. Nasdaq 100 Index are again higher, following the biggest daily advance in more than a week, up 0.4% as of 6:20 a.m. in New York.

The Fed Has An Alarming Low-Inflation Problem

With all the talk of central bank hawkishness in the last week, one might assume there was some inflation to point to. It is quite the opposite. It is one thing to talk about inflation being below the Fed’s target of 2%, it is an entirely different issue to see it flirting with deflation!

S&P Futures, Euro Shares Start 2nd Half Solidly In The Green; Oil Rises For 8th Day

S&P500 futures have started the second half solidly in the green, up 0.3% to 2,429, tracking European markets broadly in the green, while Asian stocks fell slightly and crude oil is little changed. With US markets set to close at 1pm today trading volumes in many markets remain light before Tuesday’s July 4th holiday