Core CPI

Key Events In The Coming Week: CPI, Retail Sales And FOMC Minutes

The key economic releases this week are the CPI and retail sales reports on Friday. Additionally, the minutes from the September FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday. There are several speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including a speech by Chair Yellen on Sunday.

FX Week Ahead: Discretion And Common Sense Not Easy For "The Machines"

Core CPI is expected to rise from 1.7% to 1.8% as oil prices are expected to help lift the headline rate through 2.0%, but for the purposes of monetary policy current levels are strong enough to keep the Fed on their normalisation path.  Equity markets need a reality check, and it won't come from the level of balance sheet reduction now under way.

FX Week Ahead: Market In Need Of Brain-Changer, Not Game-Changer

After the FOMC meeting last week, it was (yet) again apparent that the Fed are still keen to maintain a normalisation path designed to not only get rates back to neutral levels, but also build up the policy tool kit again as well as staving off excessive leverage which has boosted stock markets to record highs. 

Deutsche Bank: "This Is The $2.5 Trillion Question"

"The Fed is about to become hugely important for financial assets. If all goes well, nominal core rates will be relatively stable and the dollar gently weaker. There is a good chance it does not go well, however."

Is Amazon To Blame The Fed Can't Hit Its Inflation Target

While globalisation was the meme of the 2000s, this decade’s has to be the “Amazonisation” of commerce. Given the bulk of the cost of goods is distribution costs, Amazon’s unique distribution model and widening range of products could impart a new disinflationary impulse on goods prices.

Key Events In The Coming Week: BOE, SNB, Inflation And Retail Sales

In a somewhat quieter week for economic news, this week's focus is on BoE and SNB policy meetings as well as on inflation releases in US, UK, China and others. Other releases of note include retail sales in the US, UK and China along with industrial production in US, Eurozone & China.