"Stocks have surged by 6% since the election on the prospect of higher earnings under potential Trump policies, but consensus bottom-up 2017 EPS forecasts for S&P 500 have been unchanged" - Goldman Sachs
Suddenly the coolest thing in corporate America is announcing major capital investments in the US while adding thousands of American jobs, in other words the opposite of the globalization trend of the past 30 years, in yet other words, doing precisely what Donald Trump demands.
Today, the only thing keeping a lid on financial calamity is epic amounts of artisanal money. Deregulating an inherently corrupt and coddled banking industry, already floating on said capital assistance, would inevitably cause another crisis during Trump’s first term.
James Madison, the father of the Constitution, put it best when he warned: “Take alarm at the first experiment with liberties.” Anyone with even a casual knowledge about current events knows that the first experiment on our freedoms happened long ago. We are fast moving past the point of no return when it comes to restoring our freedoms.
As we head into 2017, trying to predict the markets is often quite pointless. The risk for investors is “willful blindness” that builds when complacency reaches extremes. It is worth remembering that the bullish mantra we hear today is much the same as it was in both 1999 and 2007. We don’t need to remind you what happened next.
We started this year with the economy deteriorating and finished it with the second interest rate increase in ten years. There were a lot of ups and downs along the way, but ultimately 2016 was defined by three key story-lines: 1) Brexit 2) The Presidential Election 3) Fed Policy. The first two events were votes that shocked the world. The stock market’s reaction to each was arguably even more shocking.
It took only nine days in office for President Obama to be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. Likewise, the markets seem to have prematurely greeted Trumponomics as an outstanding success. There’s just one thing: Trump hasn’t done anything yet. We’re still weeks away from his inauguration, and details of his economic plans remain scarce.
"The Fed will dominate the Wed wires but monetary policy really isn’t driving the tape at the moment and that won’t change following the final FOMC decision of the year. Far more important is US politics and the specifics around Trump’s tax and regulatory plans."
"No president-elect before him — even the current president — was bowed down to in this regard. Not because the media loves Trump, of course, but it loves the ad revenue he generates via boffo ratings."