Frontrunning: March 23

  • Futures little changed day after Brussels attacks (Reuters)
  • Trump, Clinton win big in Arizona, but Cruz, Sanders show fight (Reuters)
  • Belgium identifies Brussels bomb suspect, suicide bombers (Reuters)
  • After Brussels Terrorist Attacks, Security Ramped Up in U.S. Cities (WSJ)
  • Terror Impact Threatens Cameron EU Pitch, Merkel's Open Door (BBG)
  • Brussels Attacks Will Jolt 2016 U.S. Presidential Race (WSJ)

Spot The Sucker: Brazil Stocks Edition

If you are a foreign investor in Brazilian equities and you can't look at the net purchases chart shown here and tell us who the sucker is, well then you are the sucker.

Regardless Of Who Wins In November, Freedom & Liberty Both Lose

This is the new America system: a democratic politics of power, plunder and privilege in a perpetual social conflict of social classes, racial groups and gender identities. It is a system in which the individual seems weak, small and powerless; and needing “leaders” who will use politics to bring them to the social, economic, racial and gender “promised lands” that are laid before the constituent-voters, if only this or that political candidate is elected to set the world right for the benefit of a coalition of collective groups who want certain things and to which they are told they are entitled. This the outcome of the journey from liberal individualism to political collectivism.

Brazil Needs A Stronger Currency Like It Needs A Hole In The Head, Goldman Warns

As we’ve documented extensively this month, the BRL is now trading pretty much exclusively on Lula, as his fate is seen as a proxy for whether Rousseff will ultimately be forced from office. The market apparently believes that anything would be better than the current political arrangement when it comes to shoring up the country’s flagging economy which last year plunged into what might as well be a depression. Now that the high court has blocked his appointment, Brazil should be wary of further currency appreciation, Goldman warns, as an economic rebalancing requires a weaker BRL.

Why Trump Triumphs

"Now, the zeitgeist has changed. Ms. Merkel is out of style and out of step. In Britain, France, the Netherlands, Slovakia, Hungary, and the U.S., the candidates getting the most enthusiastic support are those who urge closing borders, restricting trade, and looking to protect themselves from all that is threatening, different, or new. Forget free trade! Forget freedom of travel! Stop immigration… especially of the Muslims and Mexicans! Build a wall! Torture your enemies! Stop trying to expand the empire!"

"It's All F**ked": Brazil Descends Into Chaos As Rousseff, Lula Wiretaps Trigger Mass Protests

On Wednesday evening, it all fell apart in Brazil when the judge spearheading government corruption probes released wiretaps which seem to prove that Dilma Rousseff indeed appointed former President Lula to chief of staff in order to shield him from prosecution. When the tapes were released, Congress broke into a shouting match and Brazilians poured into the streets in 17 of 26 states calling for an overthrow of the government.

Will A Trump Presidency Really Change Anything For The Better?

Whatever Trump is, his popularity does indicate a rising tide of discontent within the U.S.  The damage to America has for the most part already been done, and there will be no avoiding the consequences. That said, how we rebuild can still be determined. No political leader including Trump will ever be able to heal the American system or the American psyche, but the efforts of millions of independent and liberty minded Americans can. We have a long and terrible struggle ahead of us, but to look at it from an “optimistic” perspective, at least Americans are becoming sick of the status quo. That is a start.

"We Choose The Nominee, Not The Voters" - Republican Party Split Looms

"The media has created the perception that the voters choose the nomination. That's the conflict here." So a Republican split is looking more likely. They have drawn the line in the sand. By no means will they accept Trump. He might as well begin forming a third party. What is going to be exposed is that we do not live in a Democracy. The Republicans prefer Hillary to Trump any day of the week.

Here Comes The Big Flush - Recession Pending, Fed "Put" Ending

If it sounds like history repeating itself, it most surely is.  The coming recession will again obliterate the sell side hockey sticks, which this time started last spring at $135 per share for 2016 and are already being reduced at a lickety-split rate not seen since the fall of 2008. But this time there is one thing that decisively different, and it will make all the difference in the world. As will be reinforced once again by the post-meeting contretemps on Wednesday, the Fed has painted itself into a deathly corner and is utterly out of dry powder. It has nothing left but to hint at the prospect of negative interest rates. And that will be usher in its thundering demise.

Brazil Currency, Stocks Tumble As Former President Lula Accepts Cabinet Position

Just last week, the BRL was riding high on news that former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was detained in connection with money laundering. He was then charged with corruption by state prosecutors. The market hoped his arrest and possible prosecution would give momentum to the effort to impeach Rousseff. Then, in a dramatic turn of events, Rousseff invited Lula to accept a ministry post yesterday. Initially, reports indicated he would resist the idea of accepting, but that soon changed.