Earlier this week, in "Why The Turkish Government May Be The Casualty Of A $119 Billion PetroDollar Loophole" we said "dare to mess with the Petrodollar and the wrath of the US government will hunt you down... sooner or later." Sure enough, after resulting in a Turkish government scandal, punishing its stock market and sending the Lira reeling, the blowback has reached Iran where billionaire Babak Zanjani was arrested yesterday on corruption charges, although in reality his chief transgression was allowing the Petrogold system to show that the Petrodollar is no longer irreplaceable.
Heading into the North American open, stocks in Europe are seen broadly lower, with consumer services seen as the worst performing sector, where the UK based retailers have underperformed amid fears that a combination of heavy discounting, along with bad weather, impacted heavily on overall performance. Of note, the SMI index in Switzerland underperformed throughout the session, with Swatch shares under pressure after officials were unable to say what caused the fire at the weekend at the co.'s ETA unit factory in Grenchen, which destroyed one workshop and damaged another. As expected, traded volume is far below the daily avg and this trend is expected to continue this week. The euro is stronger against the dollar. Japanese 10yr bond yields rise; Italian yields decline. Commodities little changed, with silver, gold underperforming and natural gas outperforming. U.S. pending home sales, Dallas Fed manufacturing data due later.
It was in October 2012 when we explained how Iran evades the Western blockade (ostensibly with the implicit nod of none other than the US), and when we first defined the concept of PetroGold in the context of the Turkey-Dubai-Iran crude-for-gold triangle. One year later, following Iran's unperturbed ability to exist in a world without US dollars, the blockade of Iran is a thing of the past, and the west has engaged in a full-blown detente with the country, much to the fury of both Israel and Saudi Arabia, lowering and in many cases outright eliminating Iran sanctions, which proved futile. So a happy ending for Iran (if only briefly). However, one country that has seen better days, whose government may be on the edge of collapse due to an unprecedented corruption scandal precisely for enabling said PetroGold scheme, and which has been in the news on a daily basis recently, is Turkey. As Turkey's Today's Zaman explains in "Iran's Turkish Gold Rush", the political crisis Turkey finds itself in may be nothing but a consequence of the PetroGold scheme conceived over a year ago, and in which Turkey played a crucial role. Here is how the Turkey-Dubai-Iran PetroGold triangle, or as the Zaman calls it, "gas for gold", may soon result in the toppling of yet another government, simply because it showed that existence outside of the clutches of the 'Petrodollar' is perfectly possible...
Muammer Akkas, the prosecutor who complained his government corruotion investigation efforts were being blocked by the government - has been removed from the investigation. Prime Minister Erdogan's efforts to rein in "the final attack" on "new Turkey" are failing even after his cabinet reshuffle but this morning's rhetoric has sent asset prices tumbling once more:
*'THE NEW TURKEY IS UNDER SERIOUS ATTACK': ERDOGAN
*IN NEW TURKEY, SOVEREIGNTY CAN'T LIE WITH JUDICIARY: ERDOGAN
*LAWMAKERS SHOULD AVOID REMARKS HURTING ERDOGAN: ARINC
*ERDOGAN SAYS HE'S ISSUING LEGAL COMPLAINT AGAINST MEDIA LEAKS
As one analyst noted, "Erdogan continues to present the developments as a conspiracy despite having to shuffle his cabinet, which indicates that there may be some serious findings behind the probe."
- Millions of Tons of Metals Stashed in Shadow Warehouses (WSJ)
- Moguls Rent South Dakota Addresses to Dodge Taxes Forever (BBG)
- Fastest Japan Inflation Since ’08 Stokes Wage Pressure (BBG)
- Thai crisis deepens as army chief hints at intervention (Reuters)
- Anti-Assad Lebanese ex-minister killed in Beirut bomb (Reuters)
- Foreigners Unload Turkey Bonds as Probe Tarnishes Erdogan Growth (BBG)
- Small ISS Change Shakes Up Boards: Tweak to Influential Shareholder Adviser's Recommendations Has Directors Rethinking Proposals (WSJ)
- Japan’s Nishimura Calls for Quick Corporate Tax Cut to Under 30% (BBG)
- Japan's Abe bets U.S. alliance, ratings can weather shrine visit (Reuters)
If political protests focused on the real culprits of economic instability within their countries, then they could be immensely successful in bringing about real change. However, as long as they focus on distractions and the players of the game rather than the real culprits, politicians will continue to sell all of us "hope" and "change we can believe in" and continue laughing behind our backs all the way to the bank.
Don’t Be Foolish
Turkish stocks are tumbling, bond yields are soaring, and the Lira is collapsing to new record lows as the prosecutor in charge of investigating the nation's "Graft" case points out the seemingly obvious (but in public)...
*ISTANBUL PROSECUTOR SAYS GOVT INTERFERING IN GRAFT PROBE: NTV
*COURT ORDERS FOR SEARCH, DETENTION BEING PREVENTED, AKKAS SAYS
*TURKEY PROSECUTOR SAYS OFFICIALS CRIMINALLY DISOBEYING COURTS
Judge Akkas cites clear pressure on the judiciary through the police are affecting his ability to continue the probe into the Turkish government's potential misdeeds and corruption.
- Late Surge in Web Buying Blindsides UPS, Retailers, Some Christmas Packages Aren't Delivered (WSJ)
- Yen Slides as Turkish Stocks Drop, U.S. Futures Rise (BBG)
- Turkish lira drops to record low against dollar, as Turkey’s Erdogan replaces 10 ministers (FT)
- Egypt designates Muslim Brotherhood as terrorist group (Reuters)
- Thai elections in doubt after political violence (AFP)
- Batista Cedes Oil Unit Control in $5.8 Billion Debt Deal (BBG)
- China celebrates Mao's birthday, but events scaled back (Reuters)
- First-class stamps to cost 49 cents as of Jan. 26 (AP)
- Obamacare Hits Snag in States as U.S. Site Finds Footing (BBG)
- NSA Struggles to Make Sense of Flood of Surveillance Data (WSJ)
The latest overnight meltup which has pushed the DJIA and S&P to new implied record opens has been driven by, what else, the falling Yen, which after tumbling to fresh new 5 year lows following the release of the BOJ minutes (which said nothing new), has sent both the Nikkei higher by 1%, to post-2008 highs of 16,174, while the S&P, up about 5 points just shy of 1840, and has only three trading days in which it should close the gap to the central banks' price target of 1900 as we first showed in April. In the absence of any actual newsflow (we now live in a world in which both good and bad news are P/E multiple beneficial, just continue keeping an eye on the EURJPY and the USDJPY - these are the only two signals tht matter for the market.
Turkish Political Crisis Deepens As Three Cabinet Ministers Quit; Prime Minister Erdogan Urged To ResignSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 12/25/2013 11:15 -0400
The Turkish high-profile corruption scandal, whose fallout has so far resulted in the jailing of the sons of the Turkish minister of the interior Muammar Guler, just escalated sharply following the abrupt resignation of three key ministers from PM Erdogan's government. Earlier today, first Economy Minister Zafer Caglayan and then Interior Minister Muammer Guler submitted their resignations to Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan Wednesday morning. A few hours later, they were joined by Environment and Urban Planning Minister Erdogan Bayraktar who also tendered his resignation as a member of parliament, however instead of doing so in a complacent manner, he lashed out at the PM and called for his resignation which roiled markets following an earlier relief rally.
A look ahead into 2014.
- Edward Snowden, after months of NSA revelations, says his mission’s accomplished (WaPo)
- Japan’s Nikkei 225 Extends Six-Year High on U.S. Data (BBG)
- Retailers blend stores, e-commerce to snag holiday stragglers (Reuters)
- Storm wreaks havoc in Britain, France ahead of Christmas (Reuters)
- Big Rally to Pump Up Wall Street Bonuses (WSJ)
- Obamacare Sign-Up Extended as Record 1 Million Use Site (BBG)
- Merkel Hits Wall With Europe Fix (WSJ)
- Boaz Weinstein Loses for Second Year as European Bet Sours (BBG)
- UniCredit has reached an agreement to sell almost €1 billion in nonperforming loans to Cerberus (WSJ)
- U.S. mortgage applications fall as refinance hits five-year low (Reuters)
- Cohen Said to Have Warned Friend About Possible Federal Investigation (NYT)
- ‘Duck Dynasty’ Dad Risks $500 Million With Gay-Sin Remark (BBG)
Call it what you will. Arrogance is overbearing pride, the self-importance of being superior and a public display of haughtiness that knows no bounds.
Capitalism means failure if you screw up. But under Bernanke’s watch, “capitalism” meant giving trillions in taxpayer money to those who screwed up.