Counterparties

Tyler Durden's picture

Yellen, You Have A Problem: The "Rate Hike Corridor" Just Broke





Moments ago the effective Fed Funds rate tumbled from yesterday's 0.35% to just 0.12%, confirming that indeed the rate hike corridor can and has been breached at least once, and only two weeks into the Fed's rate hike experiment.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Asia's Largest Commodity Trader Was Just Downgraded To Junk: Collateral Calls Next?





"Moody's downgrades Noble Group to Ba1; outlook negative.... "The downgrade of Noble's ratings reflects Moody's concerns over the company's liquidity," says Joe Morrison, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Credit Officer. The Ba1 ratings also reflect low levels of profitability and consistent negative free cash flow from core operating activities, which exclude proceeds from asset sales."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

2015 Year In Review - Scenic Vistas From Mount Stupid





“To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything.” ~Edward Abbey

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Fed Reveals Rate Hike "Plumbing" Details: Removes Cap On Reverse Repos, Limits Each Counterparty To $30 Billion





Perhaps even more important than the actual rate hike announcement, the one statement the market was particularly focused on was the Fed's "implementation note", which lays out the Fed's thought process on how it will actually raise rates in order to maintain the Fed Funds in the 0.25%-0.50% range. What it reveals is that in addition to removing the daily limit on aggregate borrowings through its overnight reverse repurchase facility, previously set at $300 billion (recall that according to Citi, the Fed may need to drain up to $1 trillion in excess liquidity to effect the 25 bps hike), it will have a per counterparty limit of $30 billion per day, which may or may not be enough.

 
zenkick2000's picture

2015 creating many analogies with the period running up to 2008 crisis





Despite the low interest rate regime, there are a number of similarities between now and the period running up to the 2008 crisis……

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Another High Yield Domino Falls As $900 Million Lucidus Capital Liquidates





Moments ago, a third domino fell as Lucidus Capital Partners, a high-yield credit fund founded in 2009 by former employees of Bruce Kovner’s Caxton Associates, has liquidated its entire portfolio and plans to return its $900 million in AUM.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

With One Week Left Until The Fed's Rate Hike, Nobody Knows If The Fed Can Actually Do It





We are less than one week away from a historic monetary experiment in two parts: first, attempt the Sisyphean task of pushing up the rate of interest on over $2.5 trillion in excess liquidity, and second, to assure the market that it has correctly priced in the overnight evaporation of up to $800 billion (or more) in liquidity from asset prices. If one or both of these fail to deliver, than the embarrassing disappointment that marked the ECB's December announcement and its dramatic impact on asset prices and FX levels, will be a walk in the park compared to "disappointment" that the Fed will unleash once the market realizes that while in theory the Fed can and is ready to hike, it simply can't do so in practice.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Ever Greater Distortions Hint At Rising Crash Probabilities





Government interference by both central banks and regulators (the latter are desperately fighting the “last crisis”, bolting the barn door long after the horse has escaped, thereby putting into place the preconditions for the next crisis) has created an ever more fragile situation in both the global economy and the financial markets. As the below charts and data show, price distortions and dislocations have been moving from one market segment to the next and they keep growing, which indicates to us that there is considerable danger that a really big dislocation will eventually happen.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

BIS Warns The Fed Rate Hike May Unleash The Biggest Dollar Margin Call In History





"While funding continued to be available, such a large negative basis indicates potential market dislocations. And this may call into question how smoothly US dollar funding conditions will adjust in the event of an increase in US onshore interest rates. Similar pricing anomalies have also emerged in interest rate swap markets recently, raising related concerns."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"People Are Afraid": Market Panics As Brazil's "Goldman Sachs" Scrambles To Raise Cash, Junk'd By Fitch





"People are afraid. They don’t like to see the headlines and that is why they are withdrawing their money. It shows the panic that is going on from the investors’ perspective.”

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Presenting The Mechanics Of "Liftoff" Or, How The Fed Actually Hikes Rates





How would a Fed hike be transmitted? To the uninitiated, it might seem as though Janet Yellen snaps her fingers or twitches her nose and just like that, banks and money markets price in the 25bps. But contrary to Haruhiko Kuroda's characterization of central bankers as fairy tale protagonists, it's not as simple as waving a magic wand and in the US, the whole show runs through Bill Dudley's Open Market Trading Desk at the New York Fed.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

S&P Just Warned Asia's Largest Commodity Trader It May Be Junked





As usual, S&P was late, but just over three months after our explicit warning, the rating agency finally came out with the catalyst we have been expecting when moments ago it said that it had "placed its 'BBB-' long-term corporate credit rating on Hong Kong-based supply-chain management service provider Noble Group Ltd. and the  'BBB-' issue rating on the company's senior unsecured notes on CreditWatch  with negative implications." In other words, Asia's Glencore is about to be junked.

 
Reggie Middleton's picture

Bitcoin's Computing Network is More Powerful than 525 Googles and 10,000 Banks!





Power? Power! You can't handle POWER!!! Most people are still busy counting coin prices....

 
Tyler Durden's picture

No Serious Financial Repercussions From The Paris Attacks? Don't Be Too Sure





It's not just tourism and retail sales that might swoon--global sentiment might switch decisively from "risk-on" to "risk-off" with far-reaching consequences, a reversal that would quickly cascade through every asset class and every market--not just in the short-term, but in the long term.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Mangled End Of Markets: An Unambiguous Signal Of Malfunction If Not Distress





While the stock market had one of its best months in years, it was, like the jobs report, uncorroborated by almost everything else. The junk bond bubble, in particular, stands in sharp and stark refutation of whatever stocks might be incorporating, especially if that might be based upon assumptions of Yellen’s re-found backbone. As noted on several prior occasions, swap spreads have been sinking fast and to unprecedented levels. Though mainstream commentary will provide plausible-sounding excuses, mostly about corporate or even UST issuance, that is only because these places will not even consider that Janet Yellen has it all wrong; thus, they only search for possibilities that allow that narrative to remain undisturbed even though that narrative itself can never account for negative spreads.

 
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