It's Back To The Future As Stocks, Futures Jump On The Latest Abysmal Economic News; China Tremors ReturnSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 10/21/2015 05:57 -0500
26 years ago, today was envisioned as day when cars flew, holographic movies were box office hits, hoverboards roamed, and people were fired by fax. None of the happened. Instead the only "back to the future" moment this morning is a deja vu one we have seen every day for the past 7 years: bad economic news leading to surging stocks.
First The Bank of Japan destroyed the Japanese bond market, and then, back in May we warned that The Bank of Japan had 'broken' the stock market. Now, it appears the all too obvious consequences of being the sole provider of buying power in an antirely false market are coming home to roost as Nomura reports the "temporary suspension" of new orders for 3 leveraged ETFs - the largest in the world - citing "liquidity of the underlying Nikkei 225 futures market."
And now the real shocker: there is over US$100bn in gross financial exposure to Glencore. From BofA: "We estimate the financial system's exposure to Glencore at over US$100bn, and believe a significant majority is unsecured. The group's strong reputation meant that the buildup of these exposures went largely without comment. However, the recent widening in GLEN debt spreads indicates the exposure is now coming into investor focus."
"In the event of a downgrade by Standard & Poor’s and/or Moody’s from current ratings to the level(s) immediately below... there are $4.5 billion of bonds outstanding, where a 125bps margin step-up would apply, in the event that the bonds were rated sub-investment grade by either major ratings agency."
Good news! Bad news is again great for stocks, and overnight we had just the right amount of bad news from Japan, China and Europe to send stocks surging on the first day of the final quarter.
As SEC Rolls Out Liquidity Risk Plan, Here Are The Bond Funds That May Be Most Vulnerable In A MeltdownSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 09/22/2015 16:15 -0500
With the SEC moving to head off the risk of a bond market meltdown triggered by a dangerous combination of illiquidity and bond fund proliferation, WSJ decided to see which fund providers are the most at risk in a crisis. The list may surprise you...
Bankers and borrowers have kicked the can down the road about as far as they can as more oilfield service (OFS) and exploration and production (E&P) companies default on their loans and seek more relief on lending covenants. While a significant oil price increase to lift all the sinking boats will surely come, it won’t happen soon enough. More of the same won’t work. Oil industry debt is everyday news. But the discussion is about the symptoms, not the ailment.
Glencore Capitulates: Scrambles To Avoid Default By Selling Equity, Dumping Assets, Cutting DividendSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 09/07/2015 08:37 -0500
Early this morning Glencore finally capitulated and admitted defeat not only on its expansionary phase (it was just last year Glencore had approached Rio Tinto to engage in a merger), but on its shareholder "friendliness", with a stunning annoucement that it would proceed in a $10 billion debt reduction, issuing $2.5 billion in equity in the form of a rights offering, sell $2 billion worth of assets (such as "proposed precious metals streaming transaction(s) and the minority participation of 3rd party strategic investors in certain of Glencore’s agriculture assets, including infrastructure"), cut working capital by $1.5 billion, cut capex and its loan book by a further $1-$1.8 billion... oh, and it would also scrap its final $1.6 billion dividend as well as next year's interim payout, saving a further $2.4 billion. All this because our "best way to trade China's blow up" was finally picking up steam.
"The costs of executing the collateral are very high unless creditors send pirates from Algeria to go and get the vessel."
How the intersection of Fed policy, the post-crisis regulatory regime, and illiquid markets turned ETFs into the new financial weapons of mass destruction.
On Wednesday, Carl Icahn and Larry Fink engaged in an epic debate about the role ETFs play in perpetuating systemic risk. Icahn, taking a page from the Tyler Durden playbook, talks phantom liquidity before calling BlackRock "a dangerous company", and opining that Fink and Janet Yellen are "pushing the damn thing off a cliff."
"Diva Of Distress" Dissed: Court Tosses Lynn Tilton's Lawsuit Against SEC, Which Is Suing Her For FraudSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 06/30/2015 13:24 -0500
Just hours after the SEC sued Lynn Tilton for CLO fraud, the "Diva of Distress" countersued the SEC to stop it from pursuing its civil charge, alleging the SEC violated her constitutional rights or something. As she said then, "I hold hope that our nation will allow a fair fight for truth, to defend integrity and intent against allegations and provides fair forums," Tilton posted on Twitter. Our nation did not.
"As this critical domino chain of local governments in China’s credit risk situation begins to wobble, there could be significant ramifications for broad financial market stability. Such a chain reaction seems to have begun."
Some people talk about peak energy (or oil) supply. They expect high prices and more demand than supply. Other people talk about energy demand hitting a peak many years from now, perhaps when most of us have electric cars. Neither of these views is correct. The real situation is that we right now seem to be reaching peak energy demand through low commodity prices.
If I'm a fund manager, the idea that ETFs provide liquidity rests on the assumption that when I experience outflows, someone else will be experiencing inflows and thus I can sell ETFs and avoid offloading my bonds into an illiquid corporate credit market. Put another way: I am depending on new money coming into the market to fund redemptions from previous investors who are exiting the market, all so that I can avoid liquidating assets that are declining in value and that I believe will be difficult to sell. There's a term for that kind of business. It's called a ponzi scheme.