European shares fall, reversing earlier gains, with the banks and tech sectors underperforming and basic resources, oil & gas outperforming. Companies including ArcelorMittal, Allianz, Swiss Re, Richemont released results. The Spanish and Italian markets are the worst-performing larger bourses, the U.K. the best. The euro is stronger against the dollar. Japanese 10yr bond yields rise; German yields increase. Furthermore, the pullback in the USD-index from overnight highs has also provided the commodity complex with some upside and thus has seen basic materials and energy name outperform to the benefit of the FTSE 100. Elsewhere, Allianz’s (+4.9%) impressive pre-market report has helped halt the move to the downside for the DAX which trades with modest gains of 0.3%. Fixed income markets continue to hold fire (albeit in marginal negative territory) with volumes exceedingly thin ahead of key risk events. And with that, all eyes move to today's Nonfarm payroll expected to print at 235K, after last month's 248K. Something to keep in mind: the average seasonal adjustment to the October data is almost exactly 1 million, so yet again the fate of the US and global economy, will be determined by an Arima X 13 "fudge factor."
Confused how your cost of living increase is always orders of magnitude above the "inflation" reported by the BLS' Consumer Price Index? Then prepare for your daily dose of Keynesian epiphany, with this step by step guide from the BLS of how to use the Hedonic Quality Adjustment to turn a 400% price increase into a 7.1% decline.
At 12:50pm Tokyo time, Nikkei 225 Index was sitting pretty, up 0.5% for the day. Then came the tumble. Over the next 22 minutes, Nikkei Index lost 1.8% to touch intraday low of 16,725.45. USD/JPY followed suit, but with a lag, based on data compiled by Bloomberg; currency slid from 115.38 to 114.46 during that period, marking 0.8% drop. Japanese banks sold down Nikkei to take some money off the table, given its 8% advance since Oct. 31 when BOJ announced its latest easing, which in turn caused USD/JPY to retreat, according to a Tokyo-based FX sales trader. Nikkei 225 closed down 0.9%, reversing earlier gain of as much as 0.6%
Economic data from China have generally been on the weak side of late, but not catastrophically so. And yet, apart from growing weakness in aggregated data, we also see more and more anecdotal evidence that the economy is deteriorating.
In the previous 125 years of the Global economy, no two events overshadow the system fragility of the financial system as the economic woes of the 1920’s and 1930’s and the crisis of 2008.
"Japan is no Zimbabwe. Neither was Israel, yet from 1972 to 1987 its inflation averaged nearly 85%. As its CPI rose nearly 10,000 times, its stock market rose by a factor of 6,500 … Regular readers know that I don’t generally make forecasts, but that every now and then I do go out on a limb. This is one of those occasions. Mapping Israel’s experience onto Japan would take the Nikkei from its current 9,600 [as of October 2010] to 63,000,000. This is our 15-year price target." - Dylan Grice
Paul Singer Slams The Fake World: "Fake Growth, Fake Money, Fake Jobs, Fake Stability, Fake Inflation Numbers"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/04/2014 11:52 -0500
"Nobody can predict how long governments can get away with fake growth, fake money, fake financial stability, fake jobs, fake inflation numbers and fake income growth. Our feeling is that confidence, especially when it is unjustified, is quite a thin veneer. When confidence is lost, that loss can be severe, sudden and simultaneous across a number of markets and sectors."
"The situation is universal, a consequence of incompetent leaders and careless (or ignorant) citizenry."
Japan’s aging population needs rising prices like a hole in the head. The more “successful” Mr. Kuroda becomes in forcing prices up, the less money people will have to spend and invest. The economy will weaken, not strengthen, as a result. The advantages the export sector currently enjoys are paid for by the entire rest of the economy. moreover, even this advantage is fleeting. It only exists as long as domestic prices have not yet fully adjusted to the fall in the currency’s value. If one could indeed debase oneself to prosperity, it would long ago have been demonstrated by someone. While money supply growth in Japan has remained tame so far, the “something for nothing” trick implied by the BoJ’s massive debt monetization scheme is destined to end in a catastrophe unless it is stopped in time. Once confidence actually falters, it will be too late.
Prepare to once again hear the word "decoupling" a whole lot more.
“Kuroda loves a surprise - Kuroda doesn’t care about common sense, all he cares about is meeting the price target,” Folks, look-out below. As George W. Bush said in another context... this sucker is going down!
Back in late September, we posted what Albert Edwards thought at the time was "The Most Important Chart For Investors" which was quite simply, a chart of the USDJPY. Considering the BOJ's overnight move, he was absolutely correct. So for all those who missed it, here it is again, because it explains not only where the Yen is headed next, but why, sadly, this could well be the end of Japan and the mirage of a recovery that has had everybody hypnotized for the past 6 years.
Goldman On BOJ's Banzainomics: "We Highlight The Potential For Harsh Criticism Of Further Cost-Push Inflation"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/31/2014 07:12 -0500
It was about several months ago when Goldman, which initially was an enthusiastic supporter of BOJ's QE, turned sour on both Abenomics and the J-Curve (perhaps after relentless mocking on these pages), changed its tune, saying an unhappy ending for Abenomics is almost certainly in the cards. Not surprisingly then, in its post-mortem of the BOJ's overnight action, already being affectionately called Banzainomics, is hardly glowing, and is summarized as follows: "We maintain our view that unless the yen continues to depreciate significantly, as a result of the latest QQE action, the BOJ is unlikely to meet its scenario for inflation to stably reach 2% during FY2015. From a political perspective, with nationwide local elections looming in April 2015, we also highlight the potential for harsh criticism of further cost-push inflation driven by the weaker yen among nonmanufacturers, SMEs, and households. Irrespective of the latest easing moves, we believe the BOJ is treading a very narrow path."
Central banks are printing rules almost as fast as they’re printing money. The consequences of these fast-multiplying directives — complicated, long-winded, and sometimes self-contradictory — is one topic at hand. Manipulated interest rates is a second. Distortion and mispricing of stocks, bonds, and currencies is a third. Skipping to the conclusion of this essay, Jim Grant is worried: "The more they tried, the less they succeeded. The less they succeeded, the more they tried. There is no 'exit.'"
Brandenburg CPI -0.3%, Previous 0.0%
Hesse CPI -0.2%, Previous 0.1%
Saxony CPI -0.2%, Previous 0.1%
Bavaria CPI -0.3%, Previous 0.1%
To summarize (even though with liquidity as non-existant as it is, this may be completely stale by the time we go to print in a minute or so), European shares erase gains, fall close to intraday lows following the Fed’s decision to end QE. Banks, basic resources sectors underperform, while health care, tech outperform. Companies including Shell, Barclays, Aviva, Volkswagen, Alcatel-Lucent, ASMI, Bayer released earnings. German unemployment unexpectedly declines. The Italian and U.K. markets are the worst-performing larger bourses, the Swiss the best. The euro is weaker against the dollar. Greek 10yr bond yields rise; German yields decline. Commodities decline, with nickel, silver underperforming and wheat outperforming. U.S. jobless claims, GDP, personal consumption, core PCE due later.