With the threat of a potential 'black swan' event with a Trump Victory, The Elite have pulled out their "Ace in the Hole" - Russia. Russia is the most feared and misunderstood of all US artificial villians (even more than Islamic Terrorists).
With Wall Street hitting peak vacation season, it is a quiet week for news. The key economic release this week is CPI inflation on Tuesday. There are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week. Many will be looking for signs of hawkishness Minutes from the July FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday.
European shares advanced, with gains in automakers helping Germany’s benchmark DAX Index turn positive for the year for the first time. Stocks rose around the world, led by emerging-markets, as oil climbed further after its best week since April and traders pushed back bets on higher U.S. interest rates. S&P futures advance and Asian stocks little changed as rising oil prices bolstered investor sentiment.
With the BOJ already a top-five owner of 81 companies in Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average, the BOJ is on course to become the No. 1 shareholder in 55 of those firms by the end of next year. Just as insane, the central bank owned about 60% of Japan’s domestic ETFs at the end of June. This is up from just over half as of a few months ago suggesting that the BOJ is gobbling up equities at an unprecedented pace.
Distortions in financial markets keep growing, as central banks all over the world are desperately intensifying monetary pumping. What is currently happening in various bond markets as a result of this and other interventions is simply jaw-dropping insanity. It is not so much that it defies rational explanation – in fact, all of these moves can be explained. What makes the situation so troubling is the fact that investors seem to be oblivious to the enormous risks they are taking. They are sitting on a powder keg.
In their most recent report, the so-called “trustees” of the social security system said that the trust fund’s near-term outlook had improved. So the stenographers of the financial press dutifully reported that the day of reckoning when the trust funds run dry has been put off another year - until 2034. The message was essentially take a breath and kick the can. That’s five Presidential elections away! Except that is not what the report really says...
Following an unprecedented credit expansion by China, which in the first few months of 2016 injected well over a trillion dollars in total credit, the payback - as previewed here - is coming. As reported earlier, overnight China reported that a swath economic activity, from factory output to investment and retail sales, slowed last month, reflecting renewed weakness in China’s economy, resulting in10Y bond yields dropping to near all time lows.
The summer doldrums continue with another listless overnight session, not helpd by Japan markets which are closed for holiday, as Asian stocks fell fractionally, while European stocks rebounded as oil trimmed losses after the the IEA said pent-up demand would absorb record crude output (something they have said every single month). S&P futures have wiped out almost all of yesterday's losses and were up over 0.2% in early trading.
Moments ago, in what would be a very undemonic rate cut, the 667th since the Lehman bankruptcy, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its Official Cash Rate by 25 bps to 2.0% in what was a widely expected move. There is just one problem with this widely telegraphed rate cut: it was too widely telegraphed and the result was a surge in the NZD to the highest level in the past year!
The 2016 La Nina is set to be bigger than 1998 and that was one of the strongest ever. The last two strong La Ninas caused drops in agricultural output...Chinese grain output went negative in 1999 and didn't recover until 2004, and food inflation went from negative during the Asian Crisis up to 33%.
S&P500 index futures were unchanged (up less than 0.1%) following another modest, low-volume levitation in European, Asian shares in a mostly eventless overnight session; oil comes off following gaining overnight with WTI trading just around $43.
The coming week brings multiple macro data releases for July, including inflation, trade data, retail sales, IP, credit and money supply. A relatively light US data calendar next week with retail sales the main release on Friday but also import and producer prices and Michigan sentiment coming up. Retail sales will be closely watched to assess consumer spending growth for 3Q.
The meltup continues with the S&P500 set to open at new all time highs as futures rise 0.2% overnight, with European, Asian stocks higher, as job data pushed MSCI Asia Pacific Index towards highest close since Aug. 2015. Germany, U.K. economic data seen positive, with dollar, oil rising, and gold declining. The MSCI All-Country World Index rose 0.4% and was headed for its highest close in almost a year.
Needless to say, the above outlandish graph does not capture capitalism at work. Nor did the speculators who surfed upon this $45 trillion bubble harvest their monumental windfalls owing to investment genius. Instead, it is the perverted fruit of Bubble Finance, and there is no better illustration of this bubble surfer syndrome than the sainted Warren Buffett.
Monetary policy, we are told, is all about staving off recession and stimulating economic growth.However, not only is monetary debasement in any form counterproductive and destroys the personal wealth of the masses, but the economists who devised today’s monetarism have completely lost their way. The real reason for today’s global monetary policies is an ultimately futile attempt to prevent a systemic and economic crisis.