Why SocGen Thinks There Is Less Than 1% Chance That 10-Year Yields Will Fall Below 1.1%

SocGen has become the latest in a long and illustrious line of (so far wrong) forecasters, to predict that the 30-year-old bond rally is finally over. Using a new and improved "model", the French bank says that there’s less than a 1 percent chance U.S. 10-year yields fall below 1.1% especially as the Federal Reserve moves to raise interest rates. "Our analysis shows a roughly an adjusted fair value for the 10yT of 1.95%." Here's why.

US Futures Rise To Session Highs, Set For Another Record Open; Global Stocks Jump

After yesterday's positive close in the Dow Jones, which hasn't had a losing day since July 7 and which took the series of consecutive green closes to 8 in a row - the longest stretch since 2013 - the index will look to lock in its 9th green day in a row with futures currently trading well in the green. It's not just the US - equities edged higher in Asia and Europe as positive earnings results from some of the world’s biggest companies countered concern the global economy is losing steam. The dollar strengthened while gold retreated.

Valuation Fallacies (Or Why The Last Big Bubble Justifies This One)

Given the rather extreme nature of the times, extreme statistics are more prevalent perhaps than at any other point. They run the spectrum, as do human intentions, from the purely mistake to the malicious. The better stats, as the best lies, are often difficult to discern because they contain some truth such as the oft-quoted relationship between P/E’s and inflation. However, facts - those annoyingly unspinnable demons - show the 'stocks are cheap based on inflation-based multiples' essentially advises that the last big stock bubble justifies why we shouldn’t be worried about another one.

US Futures Dip, European Stocks Slide After EU Court Slams Italian Bank Bailout Plans

After a head-scratching S&P500 rally - which not even Goldman has been able to justify - pushed stocks to new all time highs with seemingly daily record highs regardless of fundamentals or geopolitical troubles, overnight US equity futures dipped modestly, tracking weak European stocks as demand for safe haven assets including U.S. Treasuries and gold rises. Asian stocks outside Japan fall. Crude oil trades near $45 a barrel. 

Treasuries Will Tell You All You Need To Know

Even with the S&P 500 hovering at all time highs and currencies moving all over the place, Bloomberg's Richard Breslow says the only asset class that is dispositive right now is bonds.

US Futures Rebound Sharply From Friday's Coup Fears, Focus Shifts To M&A

Having panciked briefly on Friday night on news of a Turkish coup, which has since not only failed but been cast away as speculation rises that it was staged and designed to give Erdogan even more authoritarian power, markets have moved on and are now focusing on the main overnight event which was the surprising $32 billion bid by Japan's SoftBank for U.K.’s semiconductor giant ARM which has sent comparable semis higher in European trading and pushing the Stoxx Europe 600 Index up by 0.6%, after surging 3.2% last week. After sliding sharply on Friday, US equity futures are up 0.1% in early trading.

What Is Helicopter Money? Goldman Explains

Here is a useful primer for all those wondering just what is coming, courtesy of Goldman Sachs, which explains the nuances of monetary policy's endgame: Helicopter Money.

Global Stock Rally Halted In Aftermath Of Latest French Terror Attack

The tremendous rally of the past 4 days that has sent global stocks soaring in recent days has finally been capped and European shares, S&P futures are all modestly lower following a deadly terror attack in Nice, France. Meanwhile Asian stocks rose as Chinese economic data beat estimates, with Q2 GDP rising by 0.1% more than the estimated 6.6% on the back of stronger housing data.

Helicopter Money - The Biggest Fed Power Grab Yet

The Cleveland Fed’s Loretta Mester is a clueless apparatchik and Fed lifer, who joined the system in 1985 fresh out of Barnard and Princeton and has imbibed in its Keynesian groupthink and institutional arrogance ever since. So it’s not surprising that she was out flogging - albeit downunder in Australia - the next step in the Fed’s rolling coup d’ etat...“So it’s my view that [helicopter money] would be sort of the next step if we ever found ourselves in a situation where we wanted to be more accommodative." It’s the ultimate in 'something for nothing' economics.

US Futures, Global Markets Storm Higher As More Details Emerge About Japan's "Helicopter Money"

The global meltup continues with the S&P set to open at new all time highs, some 20 points higher from yesterday's close, however the driver for the latest rally is not so much the imminent BOE announcement which is expected to cut rates by 25 bps from 0.50%, but a dramatic surge in the USDJPY just after 1am Eastern when Bloomberg revealed more details about Ben Bernanke's masterplan for Japan's helicopter money.

Global Stocks, Futures Rise On Disappointing Chinese Trade Data, Hopes For More Central Bank Intervention

In an otherwise quiet overnight session, which among other things saw Germany sell 10Y Bunds with a zero coupon and a negative yield (-0.05%) for the first time ever (despite being uncovered with just €4.038BN sold below the €5.00BN target) anyone hoping for a confirmation that China will be able to prop up the world economy once more, was left disappointed when earlier this morning China reported June exports and imports that once again dropped substantially in dollar terms as soft demand at home and abroad continued to weigh on the world’s largest trading nation.

PIMCO Lashes Out At "Flip-Flopping" Fed: 'Stop Focusing On The Stock Market'

We truly live in interesting times: what was once tinfoil conspiracy theory, namely that the Fed is entirely focused on propping up the stock market, has become not only mainstream thought, but overnight in a scathing essay by prominent PIMCO economists, including Mihir Worah, PIMCO blasted the Fed for constantly "flip-flopping", and telling Janet Yellen that "the Fed should focus on rising wages, not the stock market."