CPI

Stunned Global Markets Wake Up To President Trump

As it dawned on markets that they had been caught dead wrong for the second time in half a year, first with Brexit and then with the historic election of Donald Trump, their reaction was identical: a slow selloff at first, followed by a furious dump, which led to a limit down halt in NASDAQ and Emini future trading. However, turbulence calmed as investors reassessed the effects of Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the U.S. presidential election.

Diving Into The Medical CPI: Are Your Medical Expenses Up Only 5% From Year Ago?

Obamacare is on the death bed. Costs have soared, huge premium hikes are in the works for 2017, and benefits have been slashed. Meanwhile, the BLS posts preposterous statistics and the Fed seriously underestimates how much consumers are getting clobbered. Rate hikes cannot possible be the cure for this mess.

Key Events In The Coming Presidential Election Week

The US election this Tuesday is the main focus of the week. The key economic release this week is University of Michigan consumer sentiment on Friday. There are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week. 

Global Stocks Drop; Futures Hints At Longest Losing Streak Since December 1980

With yesterday's, 8th consecutive decline for the S&P 500, the US equity market has now posted the longest losing streak since October 2008; and should we close payrolls Friday day with another negative print, it would be the longest negative streak since December 1980. Putting the recent slide in context, stocks are now down compared to a year ago, and are unchanged since December 2014.

BOE Keeps Rates Unchanged, Drops Guidance To Further Rate Cuts, GBP Jumps

In a widely expected announcement, the Bank of England kept it bank rate unchanged at 0.25%, as well as holding it government bond purchases at £435bn and corporate bond purchases at up to £10bn. Among the notable highlights in the report, the BOE said that "monetary policy can respond, in either direction, to changes to the economic outlook", which appears to have pushed sterling higher.

Global Bond Selloff Resumes; Stocks Rise Following Strong Chinese Data

With October, the worst month for stocks since January, now in the history books S&P futures are eager to telegraph that the streak of five consecutive will end, with a modest gain of 0.3% in overnight trading, coupled with mixed global markets as the global bond selloff returned after strong Chinese economic data prompted concerns about rising global inflation.

Bank Of Japan Leaves Policy Unchanged; Warns Growth, Inflation Outlook Skewed To Downside

Expectations for the BoJ meeting tonight were for no change (and perhaps lowering its inflation and growth outlooks) and markets were braced for a whole lot of nothing with overnight USDJPY vol at its lowest of the year (for a BoJ meeting). Sure enough that is what they got. "No change" across anything policy but cuts to inflation expectations (as well as warnings of a downside skew for growth) left the yen slightly higher.

Key Events In The Coming Busy Week

The key economic releases this week include the personal income and spending report on Monday, ISM manufacturing on Tuesday, ISM non-manufacturing on Wednesday, and the employment report on Friday. The November FOMC statement will be released on Wednesday at 2PM.

Previewing This Week's Most Interesting Central Bank Decision (No, Not The Fed)

With Yellen paralyzed with fear and certain to change nothing just 6 days before the election, a far more interesting central bank meeting due later this week, is that of the BOJ which addresses the market on November 1, and which over the past few months has set the global bond market on edge with its attempts to steepen the JGB yield curve which in turn led to the VaR-shocked early September stock selloff,

Prices Are Skyrocketing, But Only For Things You Actually Need

The way that economic data is presented, we often think of inflation as a singular number representing a general increase in prices. But in reality, price changes do not affect products and services in such a uniform and simple fashion...