CPI

SocGen: Beware The Ghost Of 1993

"The comparison with 1993 is worthwhile too - it ended badly for asset markets, after all. Whether the Fed should worry about over-frequent excursions to the zero lower bound, or focus on financial sector stability, the risk is plain – super-easy monetary policy is creating artificially low volatility and driving money into trades and investments that are mispriced as a result."

Key Events In The Coming Week: Inflation, Spending In The Spotlight

With the French election now finally in the rearview mirror, this week's focus is on global inflation releases, with the spotlight falling on the US and China. We also have BoE and RBNZ rates meetings. In other data we note industrial production in the Eurozone, UK and Norway along with US retail sales and Fed speakers.

Macron Victory Leads To "Risk Macr-Off" In Europe, Poor China Trade Data Doesn't Help

It was supposed to be Risk Macr-ON after Emmanuel Macron's avalanche victory in Sunday's French presidential elections; instead as some banks cautioned and as we showed early in the overnight session, the market reaction has been the opposite with the victory fully priced in and especially in the European currencies and stocks, as well as S&P futures, we have seen a modest episode of Risk Macr-Off.

A Technical Look At The FX Week Ahead

All eyes on Sunday’s French election result, but little evidence of defensive positioning in the EUR. GBP continues to fly the flag, batting off the negative mood over the latest Brexit exchanges. Commodities in focus, but tentative signs of some near term relief. CAD overstretched. US jobs report mixed at best.

Obamacare Repeal Next Steps: Why Goldman Is Suddenly Far Less Optimistic

"The revival of health legislation, which could at least take a few more months to conclude, could substantially delay consideration of the remainder of the legislative agenda. This further reduces the likelihood that Congress will enact a tax cut before year-end, in light of the additional steps that would be necessary once the health bill has been enacted."

Key Events In The Coming Busy Week: FOMC, Payrolls, 131 S&P Companies Report

Besides the upcoming FOMC meeting on May 2-3, and French & Italian politics - the decisive runoff round of the French election takes place this Sunday - this week's releases are dominated by US payrolls expected to come around 170k. The busy release calendar continues with Norges bank and RBA meetings as well as global manufacturing PMIs.

Futures Rise On Government Funding Deal; Most Global Markets Closed For Holiday

With much of Europe and Asia, including the U.K., France, Germany and China markets closed for Labor Day, Asian stocks and the dollar rose buoyed by news that Congress had reached a deal to keep the US government funded through the end of September. S&P futures are up 4 points or 0.2%. Oil declined as rigs targeting crude in the U.S. rose for a fifteenth week and output from Libya rebounded.

Global Stocks Pause Ahead Of GDP Report; Nasdaq Hits Fresh Record High

Despite yesterday's whopping beats by Amazon and Google which sent the Nasdaq to new record highs after hours, this morning futures S&P futures are little changed ahead of the closely watched Q1 GDP report, European stocks and Asian equities are slightly lower, oil is higher after Russia said it had reached the 300kbpd oil cut per the OPEC pact, and the dollar was modestly in the red.

Core Eurozone Inflation Surges To 4 Year High As CPI Nears ECB Target

Mario Draghi's job just became a little more difficult, because one day after the head of the ECB surprised markets with a more dovish statement than expected stressing risks for European inflation, on Friday morning Eurostat reported that Euro zone inflation rose by more than expected to the European Central Bank's target and core inflation increased to its highest level in four years.

Stocks Dazed After Trump NAFTA Flop, Tax Plan Disappointment; ECB Looms

European shares are lower, pressured by disappointing results by Deutsche Bank and ending a six-session gain, as Asian equities and S&P futures were little changed after a record-setting rally in world stocks which pushed the MSCI World index to over $50 trillion yesterday, fizzled after Trump released unconvincing tax cut plans prompting traders to "sell the news" while caution set in as the ECB met.

JPMorgan: "Trump's Tax Plan Will Be Virtually Impossible To Pass Through Congress"

"Trump’s much-anticipated tax blueprint will be released on Wed but 1) a lot of the details have already been leaked to the press over the last few days; 2) it seems very inchoate, leaving out key details esp. as it pertains to the individual code; 3) it will be virtually impossible to pass through Congress"