S&P Downgrades Greece, Suggests Worst Case Scenario With Bank Runs And "Capital Controls": Full ReportSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/06/2015 13:14 -0500
And the hits keep coming. On the heels of a demand for repayment of ECB's profits from GGB bond gains and to extend the T-Bill limit to give the nation time to negotiate with EU leaders (i.e. a Bridge Loan) which Jeroen Dijsselbloem already dismissed earlier in the day, S&P just piled on...
GREECE RATINGS CUT TO B- FROM B BY S&P; MAY BE CUT FURTHER
This downgrade comes just 5 months after upgrading Greece because "risks to fiscal consolidation in Greece have abated." EURUSD is not moving much (having already cratered after US payrolls) but Greek stock ETFs are sliding once again.
With the Ruble having plunged 3 handles today alone, it appears perhaps more than a few could see this coming...
- RUSSIAN FEDERATION RATINGS CUT TO JUNK BY S&P
- RUSSIAN FEDERATION CUT TO BB+ FROM BBB- BY S&P; OUTLOOK NEG
Putting it below investment grade for the first time in a decade. Of course, this happens just 6 days after the news first leaked that S&P would pay a $1.5 billion settlement to the US DoJ over downgrading America: one wonders just what else was in the small print?
Earlier this evening China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange's (SAFE) Wang Yungui noted "the impact of the Russian Ruble depreciation was unclear yet, and, as Bloomberg reported, "SAFE is closely watching Ruble's depreciation and encouraging companies to hedge Ruble risks." His comments also echoed the ongoing FX reform agenda aimed at increasing Yuan flexibility which The South China Morning Post then hinted in a story entitled "Russia may seek China help to deal with crisis," which which noted that Russia could fall back on its 150 billion yuan ($24 billion) currency swap agreement with China if the ruble continues to plunge, that was signed in October. Furthermore, two bankers close to the PBOC reportedly said the swap-line was meant to reduce the role of the US dollar if China and Russia need to help each other overcome a liquidity squeeze. Is 'isolated' Russia about to be bailed out by the world's largest economy China?
- Just how many rats are there? Steven Cohen's Firm Loses Another Top Executive (WSJ)
- Iceland Sees a Potential Volcanic Eruption, and Airlines Cower (Bloomberg)
- Iraqi forces battle to drive jihadists from Saddam's home town (Reuters)
- Israel, Palestinians Agree to Extend Gaza Truce for 24 Hours (BBG)
- Pimco now buying junk (BusinessWeek)
- Pakistan arrests 147 in Punjab towns as protests in capital continue (Reuters)
- Ex-Rabobank Employee Pleads Guilty in Libor-Rigging Probe (BBG)
- Ebola Orphans Targeted by Aid Groups as Newest Victims (BBG)
- Two California youths accused of plotting high school shooting spree (Reuters)
- Only Rich Know Wage Gains With No Raises for U.S Workers (BBG)
"We are pleased to announce the signing of the Treaty for the establishment of the BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA) with an initial size of US$ 100 billion. This arrangement will have a positive precautionary effect, help countries forestall short-term liquidity pressures, promote further BRICS cooperation, strengthen the global financial safety net and complement existing international arrangements. We appreciate the work undertaken by our Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors. The Agreement is a framework for the provision of liquidity through currency swaps in response to actual or potential short-term balance of payments pressures." - The BRICS
As Pepe Escobar explains, way beyond economy and finance, this is essentially about geopolitics - as in emerging powers offering an alternative to the failed Washington consensus. Or, as consensus apologists say, the BRICS may be able to "alleviate challenges" they face from the "international financial system".
After the crisis, many expected that the blameworthy would be punished or at the least be required to return their ill-gotten gains—but they weren’t, and they didn’t. Many thought that those who were injured would be made whole, but most weren’t. And many hoped that there would be a restoration of the financial safety rules to ensure that industry leaders could no longer gamble the equity of their firms to the point of ruin. This didn’t happen, but it’s not too late. It is useful, then, to identify the persistent myths about the causes of the financial crisis and the resulting Dodd-Frank reform legislation and related implementation...."Plenty of people saw it coming, and said so. The problem wasn’t seeing, it was listening."
- Ukraine forces move against separatists (FT)
- China GDP Gauge Seen Showing Deeper Slowdown (BBG)
- China Is Losing Its Taste for Gold (WSJ)
- Regulators Weigh Curbs on Trading Fees (WSJ)
- Obama, Putin Talk as Unrest Roils Eastern Ukraine (WSJ)
- Japan PM talks with BOJ chief, does not push for easing (Reuters)
- BRICS countries to set up their own IMF (RBTH)
- IMF Members Weigh Options to Sidestep U.S. Congress on Overhaul (WSJ)
- Zebra to Buy Motorola Solutions Unit for $3.45 Billion (BBG)
- Chinese Thunder God Herb Works as Well as Pain Therapy (BBG)
S&P, still deep in the mire of a legal battle with the US government, has decided now is an opportune time to cut the ratings outlook on Russia:
- *RUSSIAN FEDERATION OUTLOOK TO NEGATIVE FROM STABLE BY S&P
- *S&P SEES EU-U.S. IMPOSING FURTHER SANCTIONS
Russia remains a BBB credit (but with the outlook shift remains open to a downgrade with 24 months). S&P has cut 2014 GDP forecast to 1.2% and 2015 to 2.2%. Of course, we are sure, this would have nothing to do with currying favors with the US government (who threatened them when they downgraded the USA). Full report below.
Trust Goldman to have keen, cutting-edge advice after the fact. Like now, a day after the collapse of the Italian government, when in a note, Goldman's Francesco Garzarelli who had been quite bullish on Italy, both in absolute and relative terms, flip-flops, and is now saying to no longer buy (i.e., sell) Italian bonds. To wit: 'The resignation of the PdL ministers will clearly increase volatility in the government bond market, similar to what happened between February and April, before the current government was formed. The spread between 10-year BTPs and German Bunds closed at around 260bp on Friday. At the end of April, we recommended going long Italian 10-yr BTPs against their French counterparts at spread of 221bp. We would be looking to close this position at Monday's levels."
- Washington Post Company Chairman and CEO Donald Graham talks about the sale, what it means for the future of The Post (WaPo)
- Private-equity firms are adding debt to companies they own to fund payouts to themselves at a record pace (WSJ)
- U.S., U.K. Urge Citizens to Leave Yemen (WSJ)
- India Names Rajan Central Bank Governor as Rupee Plunges (BBG)
- Family Offices Chasing Wealthy’s $46 Trillion in Assets (BBG)
- UK 'bad bank' repays $2.9 billion to taxpayers in first half (Reuters)
- Sony rebuffs Daniel Loeb’s push for entertainment spin-off (FT)
- Public Pensions Up 12% Get Most in 2 Years as Stocks Soar (BBG)
- Hidden Billionaire Found With Food Fortune in California (BBG)
- Fonterra under fire over milk scare; more product recalls (Reuters)
- Crédit Agricole Profit Rises After Greek (WSJ)
- The revolving door continues: Mary Schapiro joins Promontory Financial (WSJ)
- First Peek at Health-Law Cost (WSJ)
- Abe warns over Japan inflation target: warns 2% inflation target may not be reached within two years (FT)
- BoJ's Kuroda tested by divided board (Reuters)
- Nanjing poultry butcher fourth person infected with H7N9 bird flu (SCMP)
- What time do top CEOs wake up? (Guardian)
- Cyprus Seeks More Time to Meet Targets in Talks With Troika (BBG)
- Investors Ignore Negativity at Their Peril (WSJ)
- Apple bows to Chinese pressure (FT)
- One can only laugh: North Korea to restart nuclear reactor in weapons bid (Reuters)
- Visa Demand Jumps (WSJ)
- Bloomberg's refutation of Stockman: yes, yes but... look over there, stocks are up! (BBG)
The Farce Is Complete: In The Case Of Countrywide, Congress Finds Itself Innocent Of Being "Friends Of Angelo"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/27/2012 20:40 -0500
Just when you thought the seemingly endless rabbit hole of Wall Street-Washington corruption, cronyism, co-option, crime and kickbacks may have finally come to an end, here comes the House Ethic Committee to pronounce that no ethics breaches were found among House members in its investigation involving the scandal surrounding Countrywide "VIP loans" and the "Friends of Angelo." And in just doing so, the House effectively cleared itself of any wrongdoing and that's it, case closed - move along... Move along.
- Israel Mobilizes Troops as Hostilities Escalate (WSJ)
- FHA Sets Stage for Taxpayer Subsidy With 2012 Deficit (Bloomberg)
- On eve of fiscal cliff talks, positions harden (Reuters)
- Japan PM Noda contradicts challenger Abe on BOJ (Reuters)
- Regulators cut JPMorgan's ability to trade power (Reuters)
- EU Should Reach Agreement on Greek Aid Next Week, Grilli Says (BBG)
- Moscovici rejects talk of French crisis (FT)
- Egypt Urges Push for Gaza Peace as Rockets Hit Israel (BBG)
- Leading Japan politicians draw election battle lines (Reuters)
- Fed Push to Tie Zero-Rate to Economic Goals Faces Doubts (BBG)
- China’s commerce minister voted out in rare congress snub (Reuters)
- China’s new leaders could have reform thrust upon them (Reuters)
- Both Sides of Gaza Border Brace for Further Conflict (WSJ)
- Fed Sees Hurdles in Housing Rebound (Hilsenrath)
- The Complete 2012 Business Schools Ranking (Bloomberg)
Just over a week ago we highlighted the desperate plight of cash-strapped California. With a $3.3bn short-term 'hole', they were looking for cash-management solutions under every rock and hard place they could find. Today we hear that California joins the Obama bank foreclosure settlement enabling $18bn of bank-funded cash (implicitly via Federal Reserve/Government coffers) can flow to the left coast. Los Angeles alone will receive $4bn which while eventually wending its way down to the consumer (to be spent and implicitly spurring further economic activity or perhaps more likely to pay down other debt in this balance sheet recessionary environment), as Bloomberg asks, "Why should a taxpayer in Houston or Wichita bail out irresponsible California homeowners, banks and the state’s public employees’ retirement fund?" To add to California's 'aid', BofA has become the first bank to sign up for the 'Keep your Home' program where Federal dollars are given to banks to encourage them to reduce mortgage balances on struggling (over-levered and perhaps once greedy) California homeowners. Certainly it is a happy coincidence that perhaps a short-term cash crisis could be band-aided in the Golden State by this well-timed joining of California to the settlement.