CRAP

Russia has just taken significant steps that will break the present Wall Street oil price monopoly, at least for a huge part of the world oil market. The move is part of a longer-term strategy of decoupling Russia’s economy and especially its very significant export of oil, from the US dollar, today the Achilles Heel of the Russian economy.

A few market participants have noticed that the US High Yield Energy sector's credit risk collapsed 170bps this morning according to Bloomberg's data. This is the biggest plunge (rally) in the index of "incredibly risky stuff" on record and in the face of new cycle lows in crude, borrowing bases contracting, and rig counts crashing, this seemed odd... well here is why the index collapsed (spoiler alert - do not get excited).

Sort of like all those do it yourself Gold Mining shows hitting the reality television scene pretty much nailing the near term top in the gold market.

Remember a week ago when every TV anchor, pundit, asset-gatherer, and commission-taker stormed onto mainstream media and proclaimed the credit market collapse "fixed" because prices had 'stabilized' over the holiday period "proving that 3rd Avenue was a one off" and this dip was a buying opportunity? Yeah, well that was all complete crap... as Investment-Grade cost of funding hits a 3-year high, HY bond spreads blew out to cycle wides, 'triple-hooks' soared to their worst levels in almost 7 years, and credit protection costs rose by the most in years.

Sure Oil can go a dollar below this low, but for all intents and purposes this is the bottom in the oil selloff that was predicted for the start of the year.

There’s really one supreme element of this story that you must keep in view at all times: a society (i.e. an economy + a polity = a political economy) based on debt that will never be paid back is certain to crack up. Its institutions will stop functioning. Its business activities will seize up. Its leaders will be demoralized. Its denizens will act up and act out. Its wealth will evaporate. Given where we are in human history - the moment of techno-industrial over-reach - this crackup will not be easy to recover from. Things have gone too far in too many ways. The coming crackup will re-set the terms of civilized life to levels largely pre-techno-industrial. How far backward remains to be seen.

"This is a dangerous movie for Wall Street, the government, and the establishment in general. ... cuts through the crap and reveals those in power to be corrupt, greedy weasels who aren’t really as smart as they want you to think they are. The finale of the movie is sobering and infuriating."

“To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything.” ~Edward Abbey

"It's not just warm, but very warm," exclaims one east coast ski resort owner, adding "I can’t remember it ever being like this here." But why? As WSJ reports, two weather occurrences - the Arctic Oscillation and El Niño - are combining to shake up temperatures from coast to coast in the U.S., bringing springlike conditions to the Northeast for much of this month and leaving parts of the West colder and wetter than usual. “If people are nervous, they should be nervous.”

Summing up the anxiety ahead of today's Fed decision - which talking heads just this morning explained is "priced in" and is a "non-event... been so telegraphed" - market professionals believe "it seems a good time just to go and beat the crap out of a punchbag." As Bloomberg reports, real traders say they "just don't want to do any damage today," as they trade around the events, "I think we're going to see a lot of volatility," and Treasury risk is already spiking to 5-month highs.

The lies we tell ourselves are only exceeded by the lies perpetrated by those controlling the levers of our society. The country has been living a Big Lie since the day Nixon closed the gold window in 1971, eliminating any vestiges of constraint upon central bankers and politicians.

He got caught up in the future of energy, instead of focusing on maximizing profits and running the business in the here and now.

Even as large swaths of the population call for media outlets to do their part in stemming the “dangerous tide of hatred, violence, and suspicion” taking hold in the United States, corporate media - which stands to benefit nicely from the $5 billion 2016 presidential election - is egging on that same divisive rhetoric.

Day after day, the 'stability' in the stock "markets" (specifically in AsiaPac) is posited as 'proof' that China is 'fixed', the worst is over in EMs, The Fed can raise rates, and massive monetray policy manipulation of market signals had no mal-investment consequences. Well all of that utter crap just got obliterated as China's right-hand-man in the credit-fueled commodity boom bust - Australia - just saw its business capital expenditure collapse 20% YoY - the biggest drop ever, accelerating the crash in business spending to 11 quarters. As Goldman warns, this exposes significant downside risk to any forecast for GDP recovery in 2016.