The core thread of next year's relatively downbeat "surprises" from Seabreeze Partners' Doug Kass is that the crowd is wearing Trump-colored glasses and that the single-biggest surprise is how quickly the bloom comes off the Trump flower.
"Dear Mr. Trump, I am among the tens of millions who voted for you, and also among the twenty thousand or so that spent fifteen months obsessively devoted to getting you elected. I went to bed in tears on election night, only to be woken at midnight by my wife to watch the miracle unfold..."
"Markets don’t have a purpose any more - they just reflect whatever central planners want them to. Why wouldn’t it lead to the biggest collapse? My strategy doesn’t require that I’m right about the likelihood of that scenario. Logic dictates to me that it’s inevitable..."
“If [the CIA] are going to allege something like that they should show the trace route, and the path it went and how, and through which path those packets went from the DNC to the Russians to WikiLeaks. They failed to do that. That tells me that what they are saying is a pack of crap. They are just concocting these things to support the existing administration and to also support the move toward a new Cold War.”
Forget the Carrier deal, and forget the infamous tweet recently directed at Boeing. If Trump is serious about protecting the American public and being the populist leader he claimed he would be, he will aggressively push back against the proposed AT&T-Time Warner mega merger.
With a new administration coming into office in 2017, it might be useful to examine what potential policies will be enacted that may have an impact on housing. The market responded to the election results as if it were a Black Swan event. Most of the comments preceding the election almost assumed it was a foregone conclusion that Hillary Clinton was going to be the next President. Clearly that was not the case. The bond markets had an immediate sizable reaction. We still don’t have the full details on how things will change but there are some changes planned that may have an impact on housing. It is hard to see how rental Armageddon changes because of this.
The differences between Trumpism and the French far right are not in themselves handicaps for the French but rather adaptations to different environments. The only thing that could be a prejudice for the National Front is that it might already be too mainstream. The future is uncertain. Marine Le Pen has a long way to go before she can become the French Donald Trump.
Despite hopes that Donald Trump will waltz in and suddenly turn everything around, it would be a grave mistake to understate the amount of damage that has been done to the U.S. economy over the past eight years.