Following investors who came to prominence together with Kyle Bass after shorting the sub-prime market in 2007
No heavy ideological axe to griind or conspiracy theories to propound, just a simple look at the price action in the capital markets.
What if there was some degrees of freedom in the centrally planned capital markets that rational, non-emotional and non-ideologically-laden thinking could shed light on ? Here is such an attempt
The may be secret agreements and a grand conspiracy to manipulate the capital markets and commodities, but they are still largely understandable through rational analysis. Not being privy to such secret deals, here is one man's view of the near-term technical outlook for the foreign exchange market, bond, commodities and stocks.
Yes the US does not practice laissez faire capitalism. It never did. It manipulates sets intersest rates. The fx market is still understandable and the dollar is moving higher.
There may be one great conspiracy dictating the course of the capital market, but if there is not, what is the near-term outlook for the dollar?
Global growth expectations... we have a problem. With all eyes focused on BABA, Treasury yields, and Russell 2000 death-crosses, the old equally-weighted CRB commodity index has broken down through support to 4-year lows this morning...
If over the weekend we got some terrible economic news out of China, then overnight it was turn for a major disappointment in capital flows, when Chinese Foreign Direct Investment in August crashed by 14%, far below the 0.8% increase expected, attracting just $7.2 billion in FDI, and the lowest in four years. This once again sparked fears of a Chinese hard landing and sent the Shanghai Composite tumbling 1.82%, the biggest drop in six months. In addition to China, there was the German ZEW Survey, which while beating expectations of a 5.0 print, dropped from 8.6 to 6.9 in August, the lowest since 2012. In fact, the gauge has decreased every month since December when it reached a seven-year high. And while there is not much other news today ahead of the blitz assault of data later in the week, including the Fed tomorrow, the TLTRO announcement on Thursday and the Scottish referendum results and the BABA IPO on Friday, we are stunned futures aren't as usual, soaring.
Simple review of technical condition of the capital markets. Light on polemical zeal, and heavy on technical analysis.
Nowhere was the humor of central planning better exhibited than in Brazil was a clear outperformer with the BOVESPA (+10%) posting its best monthly performance since January 2012. Why? Because Brazil just entered a recession. Perhaps the reason why the joke that global thermonuclear war will send futures limit up is funny, is because it's true...
Overview of the technical outlook for the major currencies, bonds, Treasuries, stocks, CRB and oil.
Non-ideologically laden overview of the key issues shaping the investment climate in the week ahead.
Overview of the technical conditions of the major markets.
Overview of the price action in various currencies, S&P 500, Treasuries and the CRB Index
A look at key events and data in the week ahead.