CRB

George Orwell's Monetary Policy

"Tightening is easing..." Monetary policy is a black box and former Fed chair, Alan Greenspan, acknowledged this more than 20 years ago...

The Great Misconception Of A Return To "Normal"

The narrative seems to be that 2009 was a one off event and that the central banks role was and still is to "stabilize" the situation until things "normalize". But right there...that idea that 2009 was a "one-off" or "abnormal" couldn't be more wrong. 

Oil Fireworks Unsettle Global Markets Ahead Of Payrolls Report

With all eyes on crude, following last night's mini flash crash which sent WTI lower by 3% from just above $45 to under $43 in under 10 minutes, equity markets, generally quiet overnight, have taken on a secondary importance ahead of today's key risk event, the April payrolls report. In global equities, Asian and European stocks are lower, while S&P futures are little changed.

The Best 'Unknown' Indicator

Even though investors have given up on the Trump reflation trade, this model has not. In fact, it has pushed up to new highs...

Gold Passes A Major Milestone

As of month-end today, gold is up over 27% from its Dec-15 lows. This a major milestone – any time gold has managed a move of at least 25% off a major low, it has continued higher every single time with incremental gains ranging from 21%-412%, with the average totaling 175%.

Major UK Pension Fund Slashes Benefits As Funding Crisis Spreads

One of the largest educator pension funds in the U.K., the Universities Superannuation Scheme (USS) is implementing significant changes to the plan benefits as it becomes increasingly under-funded, just like its peers in the United States. The changes are drastic, and are meant to keep the fund solvent in order to at least pay some benefits rather than none over time. Additionally, the plan, which represents 330,000 members, will transition from defined benefit to defined contribution leaving members at the mercy of the performance of the money managers handling their investments.

Global Warming And Food Prices

Given that we all have to eat and that there are some concerning environmental developments out there, here’s an interesting question: has global warming led to higher or lower food prices (thus far)?

10 Investor Warning Signs For 2016

Wall Street’s proclivity to create serial equity bubbles off the back of cheap credit has once again set up the middle class for disaster. The warning signs of this next correction have now clearly manifested, but are being skillfully obfuscated and trivialized by financial institutions. Nevertheless, here are ten salient warning signs that astute investors should heed as we roll into 2016.

Broken Commodities Continue To Crush Investors

The point is, if you are going to attempt to catch a proverbial falling knife on a chart, at least do so only at a point you deem to be a “make or break” type level. Whether or not you can likely accurately identify a “make or break” level is another matter. The point is that, should that level fail, like it did on the CRB Index a year ago, you know the security is broken and it is time to walk away.