CRB

Tyler Durden's picture

Remembering The Currency Wars Of The 1920s & 1930s (And Central Banks' "Overused Bag Of Tricks")





“No stock-market crash announced bad times. The depression rather made its presence felt with the serial crashes of dozens of commodity markets. To the affected producers and consumers, the declines were immediate and newsworthy, but they failed to seize the national attention. Certainly, they made no deep impression at the Federal Reserve.” - 1921 or 2015?

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"U.S. And Them" - Russell Napier Asks If America Can Decouple From The Rest Of The World





Can the US economy ignore or even benefit from the winds of deflation blowing from offshore? With a current CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted PE) in excess of 27X, the US market is clearly answering this question in the affirmative. It is worth pausing to ponder just how much this optimism for a US de-coupling has already been reflected in prices. The Solid Ground was very bullish on global equities from 1Q 2009 to 1Q 2011, but then turned bearish, believing that QE was insufficient to prevent deflation. The failure of QE to generate ever higher inflation is now a matter of record, but very clearly US equities cheered this failure and the need for continual QE from 2011 to 2014.

 
Capitalist Exploits's picture

Will the Dollar Bull Market Catch You by Surprise?





A bull market in the US Dollar is underway and its magnitude and duration are likely to catch everyone by surprise

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Deflation vs Inflation





On one hand, global growth is slowing down. And on the other, the cost of living is rising. That’s a bad combination, but we’ll make it. While you’re waiting for QE4 to see how it all goes down, remember to hold on to your  assets… if you have any. 

 
Capitalist Exploits's picture

Is China the Next Sub-Prime Event?





Following investors who came to prominence together with Kyle Bass after shorting the sub-prime market in 2007

 
Marc To Market's picture

Thoughts about the Price Action





No heavy ideological axe to griind or conspiracy theories to propound, just a simple look at the price action in the capital markets.

 
Marc To Market's picture

The Dollar and the Investment Climate





What if there was some degrees of freedom in the centrally planned capital markets that rational, non-emotional and non-ideologically-laden thinking could shed light on ? Here is such an attempt

 
Marc To Market's picture

Is the Dollar Correction Over, or Just the First Leg?





The may be secret agreements and a grand conspiracy to manipulate the capital markets and commodities, but they are still largely understandable through rational analysis.  Not being privy to such secret deals, here is one man's view of the near-term technical outlook for the foreign exchange market, bond, commodities and stocks.  

 
Marc To Market's picture

Dollar Bulls Ahead





Yes the US does not practice laissez faire capitalism.  It never did.  It manipulates sets intersest rates.  The fx market is still understandable and the dollar is moving higher.

 
Marc To Market's picture

Near-Term Dollar Outlook





There may be one great conspiracy dictating the course of the capital market, but if there is not, what is the near-term outlook for the dollar?  

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Did The Bottom Just Fall Out Of Commodities?





Global growth expectations... we have a problem. With all eyes focused on BABA, Treasury yields, and Russell 2000 death-crosses, the old equally-weighted CRB commodity index has broken down through support to 4-year lows this morning...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

China Stocks Tumble Most In Six Months; US Futures Lower As Key Risk Events Loom





If over the weekend we got some terrible economic news out of China, then overnight it was turn for a major disappointment in capital flows, when Chinese Foreign Direct Investment in August crashed by 14%, far below the 0.8% increase expected, attracting just $7.2 billion in FDI, and the lowest in four years. This once again sparked fears of a Chinese hard landing and sent the Shanghai Composite tumbling 1.82%, the biggest drop in six months. In addition to China, there was the German ZEW Survey, which while beating expectations of a 5.0 print, dropped from 8.6 to 6.9 in August, the lowest since 2012. In fact, the gauge has decreased every month since December when it reached a seven-year high. And while there is not much other news today ahead of the blitz assault of data later in the week, including the Fed tomorrow, the TLTRO announcement on Thursday and the Scottish referendum results and the BABA IPO on Friday, we are stunned futures aren't as usual, soaring.

 
Marc To Market's picture

Technical Overview Ahead of Next Week's Key Events





Simple review of technical condition of the capital markets.  Light on polemical zeal, and heavy on technical analysis.  

 
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