Credit Conditions

Small Cap Rout Is Flashing Red Flag For US Economy

The post-election small cap bounce in US stocks has now been completely erased as it seems tax-reforms have now been entirely priced-out of markets. However, as BofAML notes, the demise of small cap stocks relative to the broad market augurs badly for forward-looking economic growth...

Global Stocks Hit Record High, Set For Longest Winning Streak Since 2015

With the USD just off 10-month lows, there continues to be an easing of loosening of financial conditions for emerging markets which also supports equities. After decent gains in Asia on the back of positive signs from China this week, MSCI's world stocks index looked set for a ninth day of gains which would mark its longest winning streak since October 2015.

Global Stocks Hit New All Time High After Dovish Yellen, Strong Chinese Trade Data

The hawkish tone and global bond tantrum unleashed by central bankers at the Sintra ECB forum two weeks ago is now a distant memory, and after Janet Yellen surprised markets with an unexpectedly dovish testimony yesterday, overnight global shares hit their fourth all-time high in less than a month as Septmeber and December rate hike odds tumbled, pushing the dollar to the lowest level since September 2016.

Global Stocks Rise Amid Strong Economic Data; Yen Drops To 2 Month Low As Oil Resumes Slide

In a quiet overnight session, S&P 500 futures are fractionally in the green (2,426, +0.2%) with European and Asian stocks as oil drops second day after an initial ramp higher amid speculation that LIbya and Nigeria may be asked to cap their production. Nasdaq 100 Index are again higher, following the biggest daily advance in more than a week, up 0.4% as of 6:20 a.m. in New York.

Kyle Bass: "China's Credit Bubble Metastasizing", Still Short The Yuan

Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass made a brief media appearance today, when he confirmed to Reuters that unlike some other "China tourist bears", he remains staunchly negative on China, saying he is still short the Yuan because problems from China’s credit bubble are "metastasizing."

Qatar Is Running Out Of Dollars

"We have no dollars because there is no shipment or transportation from the United Arab Emirates. There is no stock," said a dealer at the Qatar-UAE Exchange House in Doha's City Center mall. "The shipment is blocked from the UAE."

JPMorgan Lists Five "Red Flags" That Point To A 10% Downside Correction

"US growth momentum has turned mixed, with a rollover in manufacturing indicators, credit, housing and car sales. US CESI is in negative territory, which was typically associated with more defensive market leadership. CESI has a good correlation with the S&P500  and points to 10%+ downside for stocks."

The Bubble That Could Break The World

The key to bubble analysis is to look at what’s causing the bubble. If you get the hidden dynamics right, your ability to collect huge profits or avoid losses is greatly improved. Based on data going back to the 1929 crash, this current bubble looks like a particular kind that can produce large, sudden losses for investors. The market right now is especially susceptible to a sharp correction, or worse.

Europe, US Futures Slip Despite Brent Bouncing Back To $51

Asian stocks rise lifted by commodity names; European equites trade mostly lower but with little in the way of conviction or firm direction while the Italian banking index is at the highest level in a year following domestic earnings; S&P index futures are modestly in the red after the cash market closed at a record high Wednesday and investors prepared for earnings from retailers.