Credit Conditions

Beige Book Finds Modest Economic Slowdown: Strong Dollar "Headwinds" Cited

The Fed's latest Beige Book released Wednesday found seven regional Fed districts reporting economic activity as growing at a modest or moderate pace, a decline from 11 in the last report, with strong dollar headwinds among one of the more frequently cited reasons for the weakness.

Key Events In The "OPEC Is Optimistic About A Deal" Week

The key economic releases this week are consumer confidence on Tuesday, ISM manufacturing on Thursday, and the employment report on Friday. There are a few scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week. The Beige Book for the December FOMC period will be released on Wednesday.

Global Stocks, Futures Jump On Strong China Inflation; Oil Rises Above $51

One day after a slump in Chinese trade sparked a global market selloff on concerns the world's second biggest economy had once again hit a downward inflection point, overnight China surprised once again, this time to the upside when the latest inflationary data printed hotter than expected, sending European and Asian stocks higher and pushing the yen lower after China’s producer price index rose for the first time since March 2012.

Key Events In The Coming Week

In the US focus will be on the market's reaction to the second presidential debate, FOMC Minutes but also retail sales, import and producer prices and Michigan sentiment. We also hear from various Fed speakers throughout the week, and Chair Yellen gives a keynote speech on Friday.

China Floods Economy With Over Rmb 1 Trillion In New August Credit

When one month ago China announced that it had created just Rmb 488 billion in new credit as per its broadest credit aggregation metric, Total Social Financing, there was broad concern that the PBOC had again hit the brakes on the country's rampant credit expansion. Those concerns were more than allayed, however, overnight, when the PBOC released its latest August new credit data, which saw total credit grow by well over Rmb 1 trillion.

"All Eyes On Central Banks" In September, But "No Reason To Smile"

September will be quite a busy month for investors since there are around 30 major central banks meetings scheduled. Since the Bank of England’s last policy announcement, the total monthly amount in global official quantitative easing has reached almost $200 billion, which corresponds, for the purpose of comparison, to Portugal’s annual GDP in 2015. Long-rumoured and oft-discussed, QE infinity is now a reality.

Recession Odds Spike To 37%, JPM Calculates, Highest Yet For This Cycle

While not as dire as the recent analysis by Deutsche Bank, overnight JPM released its latest recession probability analysis, and - somewhat unexpectedly following the last two stellar job reports and a full court political press that the recovery has rarely been stronger going into the election - now sees a 37% chance of a recession in the next 12 months. This is the highest recession probability calculated by Jamie Dimon's bank during the current economic cycle, and matches the odds first laid out in early July.