Credit Conditions

Kyle Bass: "China's Credit Bubble Metastasizing", Still Short The Yuan

Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass made a brief media appearance today, when he confirmed to Reuters that unlike some other "China tourist bears", he remains staunchly negative on China, saying he is still short the Yuan because problems from China’s credit bubble are "metastasizing."

Qatar Is Running Out Of Dollars

"We have no dollars because there is no shipment or transportation from the United Arab Emirates. There is no stock," said a dealer at the Qatar-UAE Exchange House in Doha's City Center mall. "The shipment is blocked from the UAE."

JPMorgan Lists Five "Red Flags" That Point To A 10% Downside Correction

"US growth momentum has turned mixed, with a rollover in manufacturing indicators, credit, housing and car sales. US CESI is in negative territory, which was typically associated with more defensive market leadership. CESI has a good correlation with the S&P500  and points to 10%+ downside for stocks."

The Bubble That Could Break The World

The key to bubble analysis is to look at what’s causing the bubble. If you get the hidden dynamics right, your ability to collect huge profits or avoid losses is greatly improved. Based on data going back to the 1929 crash, this current bubble looks like a particular kind that can produce large, sudden losses for investors. The market right now is especially susceptible to a sharp correction, or worse.

Europe, US Futures Slip Despite Brent Bouncing Back To $51

Asian stocks rise lifted by commodity names; European equites trade mostly lower but with little in the way of conviction or firm direction while the Italian banking index is at the highest level in a year following domestic earnings; S&P index futures are modestly in the red after the cash market closed at a record high Wednesday and investors prepared for earnings from retailers.

Moodys Slashes Ratings On 6 Canadian Banks, Fears Asset-Quality Deterioration, Soaring Household Debt

Amid Poloz-described "unsustainable prices" in various cities, and just days after the collapse of Canadian mortgage lender Home Capital Group and our discussion of the dire state of Canadian savers (and their record household debt), Moodys has cut the rating son six of Canada's largest banks because of "ongoing concerns that expanding levels of private-sector debt could weaken asset quality in the future."

S&P Futures Slide Ahead Of Bank Earnings

S&P futures extended their Wednesday decline, dropping in the overnight session with banking shares in focus ahead of results from JPMorgan and Citigroup. European stocks likewise retreated along with the dollar, while Asian shares were mixed.

Key Events In The Holiday-Shortened Week

In this holiday-shortened week (markets closed for Good Friday), focus turns to several inflation prints in G10 in the week ahead, with US and UK inflation data likely to get the most attention. In addition, there are a few scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials, including a speech by Fed Chair Yellen on Monday.

Futures Flat Ahead Of Yellen As Geopolitical Risks Loom; Fear Barometer Spikes

S&P futures point to a slightly lower open, while Asian and European stocks are likewise modestly in the red. Trading volumes are muted for most markets on Monday with investors spooked by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Korean peninsula. It is also a holiday-shortened week in much of the West.

Why Is Loan Growth Collapsing: Goldman Has An Answer

"we believe the current C&I slowdown reflects payback from credit facility usage by commodities firms, many of which began drawing upon credit lines in late 2015 as financial conditions tightened and the debt issuance window closed" - Goldman

People Are Suddenly Worried About China (Again)

While Trump seemingly remains the only topic worthy of discussion blanketing the airwaves, as the following chart from Goldman demonstrates, it has been China where policy uncertainty has stealthily exploded in the past three months.

Chinese Banks Begin To Raise Mortgage Rates

In the latest tightening in China's financial conditions, the China Securities Journal reports that some bank branches in Beijing, Guangzhou and Chongqing have raised mortgage rates for first-home buyers recently.