Credit Conditions

BofA Credit Analyst Loses It: "Central Banks Created A Fantasy Land"

"We fully recognize and appreciate that low global yields and the need to stay invested creates a positive technical that is difficult to fight against. But fight we do.... We find it incredible that 76% of the most important economic indicators from the
selloff are worse today but yields are about 200bp lower."

Investors Are Fleeing As Attention Returns To Brazil's Depression

Now that the market's fascinated dream with the regime of Brazil's new president Michel Temer is quickly turning into a nightmare, following two immediate resignations of his closest ministers over the ongoing Carwash corruption scandal, including ironically that of the country's anti-corruption minister, Fabiano Silveira, attention is gradually returning to what is truly the cause of Brazil's woes: an unprecedented economic depression.

The "Crazy Growth In Corporate Debt" Is Finally Noticed: Bloomberg Issues Stark Warning

One does not have to be financial wizard to to know that a firm which has to borrow more than it can generate from core operations is not a sustainable business model, and yet today's CFOs, pundits and central bankers do not. But more are starting to pay attention as the corporate debt pile hits epic proportions. As Bloomberg writes this morning, when it also issued a stark warning about the next source of credit contagion, while "consumers were the Achilles’ heel of the U.S. economy in the run-up to the last recession. This time, companies may play that role."

"The Stock Market Won't Crash, Yet" - The Barron's Cover Strikes Again

When it comes to Wall Street cover page superstitions, nothing beats the Barron's front page article jinx: just when you think something will never happen, Barron's confirms it on the cover, virtually assuring that it does. In which case, be afraid bulls, be very afraid, because if past is prologue Barron's just green-lit the next crash.

Myopic Markets & The Looming Mall REITs Massacre

While markets are myopically co-moving to the siren songs of Fed hawks and doves, deteriorating fundamentals are becoming harder to ignore. Like wildfires, it’s hard to predict how quickly and where market panic will spread to next. However, the chain-reaction of peak consumer credit growth, softening retail sales, and tightening credit conditions does not bode well for REITs going forward.

"The High Yield Bond Rally Won't Last" BofAML's 9 Reasons To Sell Any Strength In Junk

BofAML's Mike Cantopoulos' distaste for corporate fundamentals, displeasure with the efficacy of QE and easy monetary policy on spurring growth and inflation, and concerns that a further deterioration in credit conditions will create deeper economic troubles not appreciated by many have left credit markets with poor default adjusted valuations and little room to absorb a negative shock. He highlights nine key reasons below why BofAML believes this rally won't last (and in fact may have already seen its end).

A Surprise From JPM: "Pundits Are Urging Investors To Chase Performance; We Believe This Would Be A Mistake"

"Equities had a meaningful rebound from the February lows, and we now find many who didn’t want to add at the time, are looking to enter the market at these levels. Indeed, pundits are urging investors to “chase performance”. We believe that this would be a mistake; complacency has crept into the market again, technicals appear overbought and the upturn in activity appears to be stalling."

"Sleepy" ECB Preview: What Every Bank Thinks Draghi Will Do Tomorrow

Tomorrow's ECB meeting "looks set to be sleepy" according to Saxo Bank's Mads Koefed as Draghi is largely cornered into confirmation he will do "whatever it takes" and some additional details on the corporate bond purchase plan. Most of the sell-side's research suggests the same, as Bloomberg notes, ECB will probably leave the door open for further cuts if needed; but any downside risk for the euro is seen limited, as Draghi stays on hold by reinforcing its dovish stance after the mix of easing measures announced in March with some defense of the efficiency of his policies after recent criticism by Germany.

"Swimming Naked" - Chinese Corporate Bond Market Worst Since 2003

A week ago we highlight the "last bubble standing" was finally bursting, and as China's corporate bond bubble deflates rapidly, it appears investors are catching on to the contagion possibilities this may involve as one analyst warns "the cost has built up in the form of corporate credit risks and bank risks for the whole economy." As Bloomberg reports, local issuers have canceled 61.9 billion yuan ($9.6 billion) of bond sales in April alone, and Standard & Poor’s is cutting its assessment of Chinese firms at a pace unseen since 2003. Simply put, the unprecedented boom in China’s $3 trillion corporate bond market is starting to unravel.

Frontrunning: April 14

  • Global shares reach four-month high, forex hit by Singapore sting (Reuters)
  • Dollar Rally Hits Commodities as Europe Halts Global Stock Gains (BBG)
  • Currencies Across Asia Fall Sharply Against U.S. Dollar (WSJ)
  • IEA expects limited impact from oil output freeze at Doha (Reuters)
  • IEA Sees Oil Oversupply Almost Gone in Second Half on Shale Drop (BBG)
  • BofA Profit Declines 13% on Trading Slump, Energy Reserves (BBG)

According To This Beige Book The Fed Should Be Hiking Rates Now

The summary: modest to moderate growth, increasing consumer spending, stronger labor market conditions, improving labor market conditions, and most importantly, rising wages almost across the board. And virtually no mention of "global" conditions (and certainly no mention of China). So what excuse will the Fed use not to hike in April again?

Futures Jump On Chinese Trade Data; Oil Declines; Global Stocks Turn Green For 2016

With oil losing some of its euphoric oomph overnight, following the API report of a surge in US oil inventories, and a subsequent report that Iran's oil minister would skip the Doha OPEC meeting altogether, the global stock rally needed another catalyst to maintain the levitation. It got that courtesy of the return of USDJPY levitation, which has pushed the pair back above 109, the highest in over a week, as well as a boost in sentiment from the previously reported Chinese trade data where exports rose the most in over a year, however much of the bounce was due to a favorable base effect from last year's decline. Additionally, as RBC reported, the 116.5% y/y increase in China’s reported March imports from HK likely reflects the growing trend of "over-invoicing", which is merely another form of capital outflow.