• EconMatters
    11/24/2015 - 14:25
    Focus on policies promoting economic growth, lower taxes, and spending tax receipts more efficiently and not on one`s sexual orientation in the bedroom.

Credit Default Swaps

Tyler Durden's picture

Why A Russian Default Is A Very Real Scenario In 2016

Who holds the majority of the debt that would be at risk in a Russian default? Not China.  Not Iran.  Not Syria.  No, it’s the exact same nations, and banks and funds within those nations, that are applying the sanctions against Russia. So, if Russia does default, what does it mean in terms of its political relationship with the West? Nothing. But what does it mean to its creditors? Everything... Simply put, if Putin believes that the benefits of a default outweigh the consequences to his country, he won’t hesitate to do it, no matter the international ruckus it might raise.

Tyler Durden's picture

Just When You Thought Wall Street's Heist Couldn't Get Any Crazier...

In reading various recent regulatory reports, it is clear that almost none of the promises that were made to the public about what was going to happen under Dodd-Frank financial reform is actually happening. Welcome to another day at the casino where the model continues to be — heads they win, tails you lose.

Tyler Durden's picture

The Phrase That Launches Recessions

“It feels like someone just flipped the switch to ‘off’ without any concrete reasoning,” one of the executives commented.

Tyler Durden's picture

The Dangerous Illusion That Risk Can Be Offloaded Onto Others

Central bank intervention/financial repression provides the illusion thay systemic risk has been disappeared, and this pushes all asset classes into correlation. The idea that some assets will escape the implosion is also illusory; what appeared uncorrelated can suddenly correlate overnight, destroying the entire fantasy that risk can be offloaded onto others.

Tyler Durden's picture

Is This Why Valeant's Default Risk Is Blowing Out Today

While the company's stock price may have rebounded strong today after tumbling by 25% in the past few days, hoping the worst is behind it the company's Credit Default Swaps sing a different tune, and as of moments ago, with the CDS spread blowing out to 440 bps, suggested Valeant default risk is now a whopping 33%.

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Glencore Implodes: Stock Plunges Most Ever, CDS Blow Out To Record Up On Equity Wipeout Fears


Those who listened to our reco to buy Glencore CDS at 170 bps in March 2014 can take the rest of the year off. As of this moment, GLEN Credit Default Swap were pushing on 600 bps, 4 times wider, and on pace to take out the 2011 liquidity crunch highs. After that, it's smooth sailing to all time wides and the start of a self-fulfilling prophecy which leads to the Companys's IG downgrade and the collapse of trillions in derivative notionals as what may be the trading desk of the biggest commodity counterparty quietly goes out of business.

Tyler Durden's picture

"Doomsday" Cometh For Glencore: Mining Giant's Default Risk Just Exploded Higher

Today's Glencore implosion is a far greater risk to the capital markets and the global economy than Volkswagen: a few executive resignations, a few bribes to US Congress, and the scandal will be promptly snuffed. For Glencore, however, which suddenly the entire world realizes is - as we said in March 2014 - the way to trade China, it may now be too late.

Tyler Durden's picture

Glencore Capitulates: Scrambles To Avoid Default By Selling Equity, Dumping Assets, Cutting Dividend

Early this morning Glencore finally capitulated and admitted defeat not only on its expansionary phase (it was just last year Glencore had approached Rio Tinto to engage in a merger), but on its shareholder "friendliness", with a stunning annoucement that it would proceed in a $10 billion debt reduction, issuing $2.5 billion in equity in the form of a rights offering, sell $2 billion worth of assets (such as "proposed precious metals streaming transaction(s) and the minority participation of 3rd party strategic investors in certain of Glencore’s agriculture assets, including infrastructure"), cut working capital by $1.5 billion, cut capex and its loan book by a further $1-$1.8 billion... oh, and it would also scrap its final $1.6 billion dividend as well as next year's interim payout, saving a further $2.4 billion. All this because our "best way to trade China's blow up" was finally picking up steam.

Tyler Durden's picture

The Beginning Of The End For Glencore, And How To Trade It

Update: even the rating agencies finally noticed - S&P: GLENCORE TO BBB/NEGATIVE FROM BBB/STABLE

Earlier today, Glencore stock plunged to a new all time low, after crashing nearly 20% in the past two days as investors with rose-colored glasses finally appreciate the dire reality facing the global miner. However, the best way to trade the beginning of the end for Glencore is not using stock at all.

GoldCore's picture

“Gold and silver will be your only lifeboats” warns Jim Sinclair

"Gold and silver will be your only lifeboats as they are no one’s liability in a world where everything including the money in your pocket is someone else’s liability.”

Tyler Durden's picture

Which Countries Have The Highest Default Risk: A Global CDS Heatmap

Aside from the socialist utopias of Greece and Venezuela, who else is on the default chopping block? The CDS heatmap below lays out all the countries which according to the market, are most likely to tell their creditors the money is gone... it's all gone.

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Unholy Alliance: Blythe Masters Named Chairman Of Subprime Auto Lender

Today, an unholy alliance was born when Blythe Masters, the mother of the credit default swap and former member of the fabled "Morgan Mafia" was named chairman of Santander Consumer, the largest subprime auto lender in the US.

Tyler Durden's picture

Disorderly Collapse - The Endgame Of The Fed's Artificial Suppression Of Defaults

Nobody apparently learned much from the whole bubble-bust affair as banks and financial firms are at it again, this time in corporate debt. The artificial suppression of default, in no small part to perceptions of those bank reserves under QE (just like perceptions of balance sheet capacity pre-crisis), has turned junk debt into the vehicle of choice for yet another cycle of “reach for yield.” In the past two bubble cycles, we see how monetary policy creates the conditions for them but also in parallel for their disorderly closure. It isn’t money that the FOMC directs but rather unrealistic, to the extreme, expectations and extrapolations. Once those become encoded in financial equations, the illusion becomes real supply.

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