Credit Line

There is a populist idea of money printing. The idea is that banks can just print what they want, enriching themselves... does it really work this way?

Many people wonder why couldn’t we let the market set the interest rate. After all, we don’t have a Corn Control Agency or a Lumber Board. So why do we have a Federal Open Market Committee? It’s a very good question.

Chesapeake has hired restructuring advisor Evercore "to shore up its balance sheet as commodity prices extend their decline." This means that Evercore will seek to further slash its debt, almost certainly be equitizing a substantial portion of it, and handing it over as equity in the new company to CHK's bondholders. As a result the company's 2023 bonds, which were trading at par as recently as late May, just rumbled to a record low 27 cents on the dollar.

“They need to show they’re selling quickly to calm markets and stop the free fall of their shares. For that to happen they need to accept the price buyers want to pay.”

"People are afraid. They don’t like to see the headlines and that is why they are withdrawing their money. It shows the panic that is going on from the investors’ perspective.”

• The Jobs Report Probably Won't Change the Fed's Mind on Liftoff (BBG)
• U.S. authorities look for militant links to shooters in California mass slaying (Reuters)
• Neighbors, Acquaintances Shocked That Couple Are San Bernardino Shooting Suspects (WSJ)
• ECB Fumbles the Stimulus-Baton Hand-off, Mussing Up Fed’s Plans (WSJ)
• OPEC Heads for Status Quo as Members Clash Over Crude Output Cut (BBG)
• Foreigners drawn in as fear and loathing grip China's finance industry (Reuters)

While the Valeant soap opera has had constant, heart-pounding drama for weeks and following yesterday's report that it allegedly fabricated prescriptions, even an element of career-ending (and prison-time launching) criminality, so far one thing had been missing: an antagonist tied to Goldman Sachs. We are delighted to reveal the "missing link", one which ties everything together. Its name is Howard Schiller.

"I would say, don't worry" said Yi Gang, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, after the International Monetary Fund warned of risks in China's economic challenges.

"The world economy is looking grim" - said Raghuram Rajan, Indian central bank governor and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.

It just keeps getting worse, and worse, and worse...

Update: CHINA TO CONTINUE STABILIZING MARKET, SENTIMENT, PREVENT RISKS, CSRC SAYS

As Beijing pledges to remain supportive amid a harrowing decline in Chinese stocks, China may find itself with no exit strategy for its plunge protection program. As BofAML notes, "An 'indefinite' holding period is certainly possible – it’s how the government had dealt with the last round of bad debts in the banking system, i.e., by shifting them to bad banks and never crystalizing the losses. But even under such a scenario, there may be unintended consequences."

The forward curve currently points towards a recovery in prices that is far worse than in 1986. As there was no sharp downturn in the ~15 years before that, the current downturn could be the worst of the last 45+ years. If this were to be the case, there would be nothing in our experience that would be a guide to the next phases of this cycle, especially over the relatively near term. In fact, there may be nothing in analysable history.

This seemingly inexhaustible credit line is now drying up, with severely negative consequences for oil producers with debt that's coming due. The row of dominoes swaying unsteadily in these stiff winds won't take much to topple.

"Lenders in general are increasing pressure on oil companies either to raise more equity or do some sort of transaction to pay down their credit lines and free up extra cash."

"There’s another redetermination cycle in the fall, And I’m not going to say likely but it’s possible we’ll be selectively downgrading some clients."

"Now that the spell is broken, we expect that many holders may want to sell to the forced buyers in the market. In addition, although difficult to assess accurately, due to a lack of data, we estimate that around 1/5 of the free float is still carried on margin. The high margin cost means that selling pressure is high as long as investors do not expect the market to go up significantly.we expect the market to experience another leg down, possibly within months."

Countries like Spain and Portugal may by now scratch their heads about taking a hard line on the Greek issue. They may not have fully realized to what extent the eurozone is indeed a shared commitment. All eurozone nations now have at least another 30 days to think that over. The main risk in that period is that Greece may decide to leave on its own.