On the heels of Monday's news that the IMF may demand a write-off of Greek debt by European creditors before the organization will disburse its portion of a €7.2 billion aid tranche to Athens, it now appears the situation has deteriorated further with unnamed Greek officials reporting "serious disagreements" between the IMF and the EU which may make a compromise "impossible" by the critical May 12 deadline.
- Fed's Yellen says met firm at heart of leak probes (Reuters)
- EU Raises Growth Outlook as ECB Counters Greek Threat (BBG)
- Hillary Clinton Takes Hit in WSJ Poll, but Holds Edge Over GOP Rivals (WSJ)
- China stocks slump on tighter margin rules, IPOs; Hong Kong down (Reuters)
- McDonald’s Chief Promises Turnaround in a Restructuring (NYT)
- German Bond Market Selloff Continues (WSJ)
- Vanguard overtakes Pimco’s Total Return following outflows in wake of Bill Gross’s departure (WSJ)
- EU Demands Concessions as Greece Hurtles Toward Deadlines (BBG)
- Junk Bonds Are The New Haven Assets (BBG)
If yesterday's laughable lack of volume (helped by the closure of Japan and the UK) coupled with hopes that the end of the buyback blackout period was enough to send stocks surging if only to end with a whimper below all time highs despite what is now looking like three consecutive quarters of Y/Y EPS declines according to Factset, today's ramp will be more difficult for the NY Fed and Citadel to engineer, not least of all due to the headwind of the overnight "incident" by China's stock bubble which saw the Shanghai Composite tumble by 4%, the most since January.
"Greece is so far off course on its $172bn bailout programme that it faces losing vital International Monetary Fund support unless European lenders write off significant amounts of its sovereign debt, the fund has warned Athens’ eurozone creditors," FT reports, indicating that the organization may force the ECB and implicitly the German taxpayer to take the hit if Greece wants to receive the last tranche of aid under its existing program.
Futures Levitate Following Worst Chinese Mfg PMI In One Year, Brent At 2015 Highs; Bund Slide ContinuesSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 05/04/2015 06:45 -0400
The best news for stocks is twofold: volumes continue to be lethargic with both the UK (May Day bank holiday) and Japan closed until Thursday (Golden Week), while the bulk of the S&P500 has now exited the stock buyback quiet period. As such, ignore record equity outflows - all the matters is that corporate CFOs, flush with brand news bond issuance cash, will tell their favorite Wall Street trading desk to buy stocks at just the right inflection point sending the market surging just as shorts once again test the downtrend and the 50 DMA.
It has been a bad week for the Greek finance minister: first, under pressure from Europe, Tsipras was forced to sideline the "combatied" Varoufakis from future Troika negotiations, then his wife had to protect him from an attack by "young anarchists", and now - adding insult to injury - an anonymous EU source said that, without Varoufakis present, Greece and its creditors have made "significant progress" and that there were "encouraging" signs from meetings over the weekend. Meanwhile, the maverick economist's 90-year-old father jumped to his son's defence, claiming his European counterparts were jealous of him.
Facing a pensioner rebellion and a looming payment due to the IMF, Greece’s back is now truly against the wall. As Handelsblatt reports, even if a deal were reached with creditors this weekend, it may now be logistically impossible for Greece to make a €780 million payment scheduled for May 12. Oh well, there's always war reparations...
"Too Big To Fail Is A License For Recklessness" America's Banking System Is A "Fragile House Of Cards"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/01/2015 17:45 -0400
"Too Big to Fail is a license for recklessness. These institutions defy notions of fairness, accountability, and responsibility... They benefit from the upside and expose the rest of us to the downside of their decisions. These banks are too powerful politically as well... Effectively we're hostages because their failure would be so harmful. They're likely to be bailed out if their risks don't turn out well and the largest financial firms in America can hide an enormous amount of risk in derivatives which creates a house of cards — a very fragile system."
Earlier this week, Greek pensioners discovered that a "technical glitch" caused the delay of some €2 hundred million in pension payments. Apparently, Athens ran out of money. Exhausted, exasperated, and short on cash, restless retirees have now taken to storming pension fund meetings and forming lines at banks.
- Record month ends in pain as biotech, small-caps, Apple tumble (BBG)
- Japan inflation rises for first time in nearly a year (WSJ)
- US Navy starts to accompany ships in strait where Iran seized cargo carrier (WSJ)
- Russia may be readying for new Ukraine offensive: NATO commander (Reuters)
- Big banks use loophole to avoid ban (WSJ)
- China April official PMI shows factories struggling to grow (Reuters)
- CME suspends traders for alleged Sarao-like manipulation (BBG)
One of the biggest stories of the week has been the great German Bund route as everyone’s new favorite short has sold-off hard on what HSBC calls a “cascade of small events [which has] created a large splash in a structurally ever-thinner mkt, similar to UST flash crash of Oct. 15.” Amid the cacophony of explanations emanating from every credit and rates strategist on Wall Street, BNP is out with a simple suggestion: it’s all about the waxing and waning of supply.
- Marchers protest police violence in Baltimore, New York (Reuters)
- Majority of Financial Pros Now Say Greece Is Headed for Euro Exit (BBG)
- Greece signals concessions in crunch talks with lenders (Reuters)
- Greece, Euro-Area Partners Target Deal by Sunday (BBG)
- Iglesias Says EU Risking Right-Wing Backlash With Greek Pressure (BBG)
- Student-Loan Surge Undercuts Millennials’ Place in U.S. Economy (BBG)
- Majors’ Quandary: Why Drill for Oil When They Can Buy Somebody Else’s? (WSJ)
The biggest overnight story was neither out of China, where despite the ridiculous surge in new account openings and margin debt the SHCOMP dipped 08%, or out of Japan, where the Nikkei dropped 2.7%, the biggest drop in months, after the BOJ disappointed some by not monetizing more than 100% of net issuance and keeping QE unchanged, but Europe where for the second day in a row there was a furious selloff of Bunds at the open of trading, which briefly sent the yield on the 10Y to 0.38% (it was 0.6% two weeks ago), in turn sending the EURUSD soaring by almost 200 pips to a two month high of 1.1250, and weighing on US equity futures, before retracing some of the losses.
Greek deposits fall €2.5 billion in March to the lowest level since 2005 as the cash crunch intensifies ahead of looming payments to government employees and the IMF. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank sees a referendum on a "reluctant" reform agreement as the most likely "solution" (although most Greeks reportedly oppose such a step) but says the chances of a less favorable outcome are still at least 30%.
- Police enforce curfew in Baltimore, disperse protesters (Reuters)
- Saudi king resets succession to cope with turbulent times (Reuters)
- Euro-Area Bank Lending Increases for First Time Since 2012 (BBG)
- Riksbank Increases Bond Purchases as Key Rate Left Unchanged (BBG)
- Greek Banks Get More Funds as ECB Weighs Collateral Discount (BBG)
- Greek bank deposits drop 1.36 pct in March for sixth month in a row (Reuters)
- Sarao Remains in Jail After Failing to Pay Bail at Hearing (BBG)