Almost exactly two years ago, in April 2014, Greece issued €2.5 billion in 5 year bond yielding around 5%, which was met with huge investor interest and ended up being 8x oversubscribed. Fast forward to today when another former shutout from global bond markets, Argentina, is in the FT's words, "on the cusp of one of the most anticipated comebacks in recent history, as the Latin American country ends a 15-year exile from the international debt market with a multibillion-dollar sale." This issue is likewise oversubscribed, and according to Reuters there are already $40 billion in roders for the $15 billion offering.
- Crude's Losses Drag Ruble, Loonie Lower; Stocks Pare Their Drop (BBG)
- Grand Oil Bargain Is Victim of Saudi Arabia's Iran Fixation (BBG)
- Both Parties’ Presidential Front-Runners Increasingly Unpopular (WSJ)
- It's up to you, New York: state takes center stage in election campaign (Reuters)
- Rousseff Hangs by a Thread After Losing Impeachment Vote (BBG)
- China March home prices rise at fastest rate in two years, top cities boom (Reuters)
$13,903,107,629,266. Can the nation afford this much debt? This much we have learned about debt after 40 years of writing and study: It is better not to incur it. Once it is incurred, it is better to pay it off. America, we have a problem.
This morning another troubled energy producer, Goodrich Petroleum announced a prepackaged Chapter filing meant to implement a financial reorganization after struggling to restructure its debt amid declining energy prices. This follows the filing of Energy XXI just 24 hours ago. Since the start of 2015, about 50 oil and gas producers have gone bankrupt, owing more than $17 billion, according to law firm Haynes & Boone LLP.
Good news is still bad news after all. After last night's China 6.7% GDP print which while the lowest since Q1 2009, was in line with expectations, coupled with beats in IP, Fixed Asset Investment and Retail Sales (on the back of $1 trillion in total financing in Q1) the sentiment this morning is that China has turned the corner (if only for the time being). And that's the problem, because while China was a good excuse for the Fed to interrupt its rate hike cycle as the biggest "global" threat, that is no longer the case if China has indeed resumed growing. As such Yellen no longer has a ready excuse to delay. This is precisely why futures are lower as of this moment, because suddenly the "scapegoat" narrative has evaporated.
Gazing into the abyss of worsening future authoritarian control, will we turn and walk away, ignoring our differences for the sake of our mutual betterment around the planet — or will we scoff, succumb, and tumble over the edge in our complacency? The choice is ours...
What in the World is Going on with Banks this Week? Emergency meetings, banker summits, crashing European banks.......Submitted by Bruno de Landevoisin on 04/12/2016 17:29 -0400
One week ago, we warned that "Valeant Lenders Demand Two Pounds Of Flesh For Covenant Waivers", a function of Valeant having virtually no leverage. Well, while Valeant proudly announced it had obtained a covenant waiver from its lenders late last week, it appears not everyone was onboard with the plan, and as a result moments ago Valeant stock crashed (below $30) after hours as major bond investor Centerbridge has notified the company that it intends to call a default event, presumably on annual report delays breaking covenants.
It's not just the shale drillers who are in danger as they see their liquidity evaporate. As the WSJ writes today, and as covered here since January, it is the lenders themselves whose unfunded revolver exposure may suddenly become funded and expose them to even greater risks from the energy sector should oil not rebound far more forcefully and put US oil and gas companies back in the black. How big is the exposure? Very big: $147 billion.
Yesterday Italy announced that it had taken the long-anticipated first step to alleviate investor concerns surrounding the stability of the banking system. Local banks, insurers, and asset managers have agreed to fund a €5 billion backstop for these troubled loans. Speculation of the imminent deal had sent Italian (and European) bank stocks soaring yesterday. The deal is named Atlante, or Atlas, after the mythological god who held up the sky. This is appropriate, as it truly is a myth to believe that setting aside 1.5% to resolve a €360 billion bad debt problem will solve anything.
- Gloomy start to results season hits shares (Reuters)
- Stocks Rise Around World as Commodities Advance; Bonds, Yen Drop (BBG)
- Oil hits 2016 high above $43 on producer meeting hopes (Reuters)
- Rosneft chief Igor Sechin says low oil prices will not last (FT)
- Banks Face Massive New Headache on Oil Loans (WSJ)
- Wells Fargo Misjudged the Risks of Energy Financing (BBG)
Diversification of deposits remains vital and one important way to protect against bail-ins is owning bullion. Taking delivery of gold and silver coins and bars or owning bullion in allocated and segregated storage in the safest vaults in the world is a prudent way to protect against bail-ins.
it has been a rather quiet session, which saw Japan modestly lower dragged again by a lower USDJPY which hit fresh 17 month lows around 170.6 before staging another modest rebound and halting a six-day run of gains; China bounced after a slightly disappointing CPI print gave hope there is more space for the PBOC to ease; European equities rose, led by Italian banks which surged ahead of a meeting to discuss the rescue of various insolvent Italian banks, while mining stocks jumped buoyed by rising metal prices with signs of a pick-up in Chinese industrial demand.
Austria Just Announced A 54% Haircut Of Senior Creditors In First "Bail In" Under New European RulesSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 04/10/2016 21:08 -0400
Following a decision by the Austrian Banking Regulator, the Finanzmarktaufsicht or Financial Market Authority, Austria officially became the first European country to use a new law under the framework imposed by Bank the European Recovery and Resolution Directive to share losses of a failed bank with senior creditors as it slashed the value of debt owed by Heta Asset Resolution AG.
Italy is the “too big to fail”, “elephant in the room”. Should Italy try Austria’s solution, it presumably would cause a “chain reaction with ripple effects that would be felt across the European banking system.” Instead, officials will attempt to “ringfence” the problem, hoping to “sweep it under the rug” where presumably a “€360bn pile of non-performing loans” will cure itself, eliminating the need for additional bail-ins