• Marc To Market
    09/23/2014 - 11:39
    Is the Great Republic been on the verge of fragmenting as classic political philosphy said was the fate of all large republics?   
  • williambanzai7
    09/23/2014 - 11:10
    Some of you were no doubt aware that the latest round of Nobel Laureate ballistic mayhem commenced on the day after September 21: The International Day of Peace!

Creditors

Tyler Durden's picture

Argentina Stuns Bondholders With Scorched-Earth "Cramdown" Plan





With the impasse over the latest Argentina default going nowhere fast, late last night president Kirchner stunned its creditors when she announced what amounts to a cramdown plan for holdouts, in which all bonds would be stripped of their existing indentures and converted to local law bonds. Or, as some would call it, a "scorched earth" transaction that burns all bridges, and goodwill, with the international creditor community and likely leaves Argentina unable to access global capital markets for the foreseeable future.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Is Collapse The Only Real "Fix" To Our Healthcare And Legal Systems?





If structural reform is impossible as a result of lobbying (i.e. the political capture of governance and regulation) by vested interests that profit handsomely from these broken systems, collapse is the only "fix" left.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: August 12





  • Gunshots, tear gas in riots over shooting of black Missouri teen (Reuters)
  • Russia sends big aid convoy to Ukraine, West sounds warnings (Reuters)
  • Maliki Bid to Block Successor Escalates Crisis in Iraq (BBG)
  • Poor German data pushes euro toward 9-month lows against dollar (Reuters)
  • Derivatives Reincarnate Boosting Debt Wagers in New Era  (BBG)
  • Israel Says No Gaza Talks Progress as Hamas Warns on Truce (BBG)
  • Traders brace for research crackdown as easy money dries up (Reuters)
  • U.S. Bank Profits Near Record Levels (WSJ)
  • Unproven Ebola Drugs Are Ethical to Use in Outbreak: WHO (BBG)
  • Caesars’ CEO Loveman Says No Qualified Bidders for Revel (BBG)
 
GoldCore's picture

“Bail In Regime” Sees UK Banking System Downgraded To "Negative"





Bank of England plans to make bondholders and depositors bear the cost of bailing out failing banks has led Moody’s to downgrade its outlook on the UK banking sector. Depositors in some Cyprus banks saw 50% or more of their life savings confiscated overnight. Moodys largely ignored, as did much of the media coverage of their report, the real risk that bail-ins pose to people’s life savings and companies capital, the likely negative impact of this on consumer sentiment and employment in already fragile economies.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Lessons In Investment Warfare





There is a war being conducted out there in the financial markets. A war between debtors and creditors, between governments and taxpayers, between banks and depositors, between the errors of the past and the hopes of the future. How can investors end up on the winning side ? History would seem to have the answers. We would argue today that central bank bubble-blowing has made the entire market high-risk, with a broad consensus that with interest rates at 300-year lows and bonds hysterically overpriced and facing the prospect of interest rate rises to boot, stocks are now "the only game in town". If history is any guide, the identity of the losers seems to be self-evident.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

For Argentina, Default Is Minor; The Real Problem Is Much Worse





By now it is well known that Argentina has been declared in default by the major credit rating agencies. However, the default is really a sideshow to Argentina's real problem, which is a profligate government financing its spending increasingly via the printing press, while publishing severely falsified “inflation” data in order to mask this fact. Inflationary policy is and always will be extremely destructive. In the developed world, a situation like that observed in Argentina has so far been avoided, but that doesn't exactly mean that central banks in the industrialized nations are slouches in the money printing department. Their actions buy us what appear to be “good times” by diverting scarce resources into various bubble activities, but in reality they impoverish us.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: August 4





  • New War Risk on Russia Fringes Amid Armenia-Azeri Clashes (BBG)
  • Palestinians accuse Israel of breaking seven-hour Gaza truce (Reuters)
  • Argentine Default Sours Outlook for Peso as Talks Ordered (BBG)
  • Espírito Santo Saga Entangles Swiss Company (WSJ)
  • Booming African Lion Economies Gear Up to Emulate Asians (BBG)
  • CME Profit Falls as Trading Volume Declines (WSJ)
  • Why Recalled Cars Stay on the Road (WSJ)
  • London Renters Win in Billionaire Backyard as Prices Soar (BBG)
  • Junk-Debt Liquidity Concerns Bring Sales (WSJ)
  • Rescuers race to find survivors after 400 die in China quake (AFP)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Futures Rebound On Latest European Bank Failure And Bailout





Following a ghastly week for stocks, the momentum algos were desperate for something, anything to ignite some upward momentum and stop the collapse which last week pushed the DJIA into the red for the year: they got it overnight with the previously reported bailout of Portugal's Banco Espirito Santo, where the foreplay finally ended and after the Portuguese Central Bank finally realized that the bank is insolvent and that no more private investors will "recapitalize" it further, finally bailed it out, sticking the stock and the subs into a bad bank runoff entity, while preserving the senior bonds. So much for Europe's much vaunted bail in regime and spreading of pain across asset classes. At least the depositors did not get Cyprused, for now. 

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Europe's Russian Connections





The conflict in Ukraine and the related imposition of sanctions against Russia signal an escalation of geopolitical tensions that is already being felt in the Russian (and increasingly world) financial markets. As The IMF describes in this chartapalooza, a deterioration in the conflict, with or even without a further escalation of sanctions and counter-sanctions, could have a substantial adverse impact on the Russian economy through direct and indirect (confidence) channels. But, perhaps more importantly to the West-sponsored IMF, what would be the repercussions for the rest of Europe if there were to be disruptions in trade or financial flows with Russia, or if economic growth in Russia were to take a sharp downturn?

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: August 1





  • As we predicted yesterday, the "big" Gaza ceasefire lasted all of a few hours (Reuters)
  • To Lift Sales, G.M. Turns to Discounts (NYT)
  • Espirito Santo Family’s Swift Fall From Grace Jolts Portugal (BBG)
  • Argentine Debt Feud Finds Much Fault, Few Fixes (WSJ)
  • Fiat Says Ciao to Italy as Merger With Chrysler Ends Era (BBG)
  • Euro zone factory growth eases in July as inflation fades away (Reuters)
  • CIA concedes it spied on U.S. Senate investigators, apologizes (Reuters)
  • Ukraine Reports Losses After Pro-Russian Ambush Near Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 Crash Area (WSJ)
  • U.S. says India refusal on WTO deal a wrong signal (Reuters)
  • Why Putin Has 2006 Flash Before His Eyes After Sanctions (BBG)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

214 Years Of Sovereign Defaults In One Chart





From 1800 to 1950, Argentina had been a relatively low frequency 'defaulter', but as the following chart from The Economist shows, since then (as we noted here) they have made up for it.

 
Reggie Middleton's picture

Create Your Own Argentine Default Swap For As Little As $5 & Watch It Outperform the Big Boys!





Watch what happens when new tech is used to create better products, cheaper than the incumbents could ever have dreamt of...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Is JPMorgan About To Bailout Argentina?





With Argentine politicians explaining that "Argentina is not in default" and ISDA set to decide if last night's default is an 'official' trigger event for CDS, it appears Kirchner, Kicillof, and their (k)omrades may have found an angel. The initial 'bailout' plan, by which Argentine banks bought the holdouts defaulted debt (then promptly acquiesced to Argentina's old debt-swap agreement), failed last night; but, as WSJ reports, JPMorgan is in discussions to buy the defaulted bonds of Argentina's holdout creditors. While this would not impact the default decision (that is history), it would speed up the exit from default rapidly. Of course, JPM is not doing this out of love for Argentina, we suspect they are on the hook for a few billion CDS and need some cheapest-to-deliver bonds to help them through the settlement process.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: July 31





  • Moscow fights back after sanctions; battle rages near Ukraine crash site (Reuters)
  • On Hold: Merkel Gives Putin a Blunt Message (WSJ)
  • Argentina’s Default Clock Runs Out as Debt Talks Collapse (BBG)
  • Argentina braces for market reaction to second default in 12 years (Reuters)
  • Banco Espirito Santo Plunges After Posting 3.6 Billion-Euro Loss (BBG)
  • Adidas Plunges After Cutting Forecast on Russia, Golf (BBG)
  • GOP Says Lerner Emails Show Bias Against Conservatives (WSJ)
  • Londoners Cashing in Flee to Suburbs as Home Rally Wanes (BBG)
  • BNP Paribas Reports Record $5.79 Billion Quarterly Loss (WSJ)
  • Swiss Banks Send U.S. Client Data Before Cascade of Settlements (BBG)
  • Putin Sows Doubt Among Stock Bears Burned by 29% Rebound (BBG)
 
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