"On The Cusp Of A Staggering Default Wave": Energy Intelligence Issues Apocalyptic Warning For The Energy SectorSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 11/27/2015 22:24 -0400
The US E&P sector could be on the cusp of massive defaults and bankruptcies so staggering they pose a serious threat to the US economy. Without higher oil and gas prices — which few experts foresee in the near future — an over-leveraged, under-hedged US E&P industry faces a truly grim 2016. "I could see a wave of defaults and bankruptcies on the scale of the telecoms, which triggered the 2001 recession."
After several months of artificial, centrally-planned calm in Chinese markets, where "malicious sellers" found out the hard way the Politburo means business, overnight the relative quiet in Chinese stocks since August broke with a bang when the Shanghai Composite tumbled as much 6.1% before closing down 5.5%, the biggest drop in three months and the largest weekly loss since the depth of the Chinese rout in mid-August while a gauge of Chinese volatility surged from the lowest level since March.
While US floor markets are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday (equity, rates and energy futures are open until 1pm Eastern), Europe and Asia (as well as US equity futures) were busy rebounding overnight on strength in the commodity complex following yesterday's news that China's metals producers have asked for a wholesale government bailout or the "QEmmodity" as we have dubbed it, for the first time since 2009, which together with news that China would soon start arresting "malicious metal sellers" has provided a push for commodity prices across the board.
It's almost game over for Puerto Rico. The commonwealth is racing to restructure some $72 billion in debt and next week, Padilla will need to decide between a partial default on a $354 million bond payment and ensuring that the government can continue to provide basic services.
"The future of the company seems very black," notes on trader as the bonds and stocks of Spanish renewbles form Abengoa lives up to its name and files for creditor protection, just as we warned was likely. With the stock crashing 70% to 28c and 4-month bonds trading at just 22c on the dollar, market participants face an almost total loss.. but, as we detailed previously, it is the American taxpayer - who thanks to Ex-Im Bank loans to keep this zombie alive - face losses of $230 million as Spain's Solyndra exposes another symptom of the Oligrachic ignorance of where the money comes from.
"This is legal?" Stephanie Ruhle on CDS after watching "The Big Short" (Bloomberg TV)
Following yesterday's dramatic geopolitical shock, U.S. equity index futures rise as Russia has not escalated the confrontation with Turkey as some had feared, while Asian shares fall, reversing earlier gains. European stocks are rallying and the euro is falling on the back of a Reuters report that the ECB is mulling new measures to prop up lending, although it’s not clear at this point what the real impact from these measures would be.
- Brussels on Edge as Lockdown Continues (WSJ)
- Stocks Pare Decline as Crude Oil Erases Drop on Saudi Comments (BBG)
- Italy’s Eni Plans to Pump Arctic Oil, After Others Abandon the Field (WSJ)
- Treasuries Decline as Economists Say GDP to Be Revised Higher (BBG)
- Why the Housing Rebound Hasn’t Lifted the U.S. Economy Much (WSJ)
- Argentina Fever Is Back for Investors as Kirchner Rival Triumphs (BBG)
As Puerto Rico stares down a $355 million bond payment due in less than two weeks, analysts warn that without federal intervention, the commonwealth could face growing social unrest and a prolonged depression.
Futures are modestly higher in early trading having tracked the USDJPY once again almost tick for tick, with the carry trade of choice rising to 123 shortly after Mario Draghi's latest speech pushed the dollar strong initially only to see most gains promptly evaporate against both the Yen and the Euro. European shares are likewise little changed, after gaining earlier, while Asian stocks rise; oil also advanced in early trading only to drop to its lowest overnight level moments ago, a few dimes over $40, with aluminum and copper both posting modest increases.
For Caterpillar The Depression Has Never Been Worse... But It Has A Cunning Plan How To Deal With ItSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 11/19/2015 23:19 -0400
CAT has now suffered a record 35 months, or nearly 3 years, of consecutive declining annual retail sales - something unprecedented in company history! But fear not, the company has a cunning plan how to stem the bleeding...
- Security jitters drive European investors back to safe havens (Reuters)
- Global Anti-ISIS Alliance Begins to Emerge (WSJ)
- Merkel says cancelling soccer match was 'responsible' decision (Reuters)
- Paris attacker may have had accomplice on journey through Balkans (Reuters)
- Drop Assad demands if you want to unite against Islamic State: Russia to West (Reuters)
- Putin sets up commission to combat terrorism financing (Reuters)
Global Stocks Tread Water After Two Consecutive Terrorist Scares; Oil Rises, Industrial Metals TumbleSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 11/18/2015 08:03 -0400
If this weekend's gruesome terrorist attack on Paris ended up being hugely bullish for stocks, then two subsequent events, a stadium-evacuation scare in Hannover (where Angela Merkel was supposed to be present) and a raid in north Paris which left several dead in the ongoing manhunt against the alleged ISIS mastermind, appear to have but some question into if not stocks then algos whether a rising wave of terrorist hatred across Europe is truly what central bankers need to unleash more QE. That said, we expect the current weakness to last only until the traditional USDJPY carry ramp pushes stocks traditionally higher.
If the Fed raises the short-term interest rates next month, it will do so only as a token. And it will continue doing so only as long as it has no negative effect on asset prices. Higher rates, in other words, will only happen as long as – and only insofar as – they are irrelevant. Should higher rates begin to do the work of tightening credit, as they are supposed to, the Fed will back off and fly to the aid of Wall Street and fellow bankers coast to coast. They have rigged the system to function on fraudulently low interest rates; now the fraud has gotten into its bones. The economy – especially the Wall Street economy – depends on cheap money. It will fall in a heap without it.