Creditors

Which Countries Have The Highest Default Risk: A Global CDS Heatmap

Sweden beats USA and Germany as the least likely to default on its bonds but at the other end of the global sovereign risk spectrum lie two socialist utopias - Venezuela (CDS just shy of 6000bps) and Greece (CDS around 1800bps) are the nations most likely to default.

Frontrunning: March 8

  • Global Stocks Drop on Renewed Concerns About China (WSJ)
  • Iron Ore's Rally Stalls as Goldman to Citigroup Forecast Retreat (BBG)
  • EU and Turkey close to groundbreaking migrant deal (FT)
  • Carney's `Brexit' Stance Under Fire as BOE Accused of Bias (BBG)
  • Oil edges lower after Kuwait dents hopes for output freeze (Reuters)

Mitt Romney Is The Real Super-Fraud: Here's The Proof, Chapter And Verse

"...the GOP establishment’s putative “jobs” candidate from 2012 was never really a businessman at all. Willard M. Romney is no expert on shiny things on a hill. The country would be far better served if he would get his dimming light back under a bushel where it belongs."

Frontrunning: March 4

  • Rivals rip Trump but promise support if he is the nominee (Reuters)
  • Employment gains seen accelerating in February (Reuters)
  • Brazil's Lula Targeted in Police Raid Into Corruption Scandal (BBG)
  • Economist: For The ECB, It's No Longer About Oil (BBG)
  • China's premier says economy faces greater difficulties in 2016 (Reuters)
  • Copper Stockpiles in China Surge to Record as Metal Flows East (BBG)

Capitalism Requires World War

Capitalism requires World War because Capitalism requires profit and cannot afford the unemployed. The point is capitalism could afford social democracy after the rate of profit was restored thanks to the depression of the 1930’s and the physical destruction of capital during WW2. The underlying nature of Capitalism is cyclical.

The Next Cockroach Emerges: Including Undrawn Loans, Canadian Banks Exposure To Oil Doubles

One month ago we also wondered what other cockroaches may be hiding inside the uncharacteristically optimistic Canadian banks' balance sheets. The first answer was revealed today when Bloomberg reported that if one includes untapped credit loans Canadian banks’ exposure to the struggling oil-and-gas industry more than doubles from the current C$50 billion in outstanding loans generally highlighted by Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank and the country’s four other large lenders in quarterly earnings calls and presentations, to C$107 billion ($80 billion).

Frontrunning: March 1

  • Trump, Clinton poised for big wins on Super Tuesday (Reuters)
  • U.S. Index Futures Signal Equities to Rebound After Monthly Drop (BBG)
  • Barclays Plummets as Bank Slashes Dividend in Plan to Shrink (BBG)
  • Glencore Tumbles to Loss, Promises Accelerated Debt Reduction (WSJ)
  • The Angry Americans: Trump, Sanders and the Aftershocks of 2008 (BBG)

Stocks Squeeze Higher On "Super Tuesday" As Poor Macro Is Offset By Jack Lew's Soothing Words

With markets happy to put February in the history books because it marked the fourth consecutive monthly decline in global stocks, we move on to March 1st, which doubles down as 'Super Tuesday' in the US when Trump's presidential candidacy will almost certainly be sealed and a day in which stocks decided to join the super fun by super surging overnight on nothing but bad global macro and economic which however was promptly ignored and instead the focus was on ongoing central bank intervention and even more jawboning.

The Central Bankers' Greatest Blunder Yet: Negative Rates = Deleveraging

In a world which has long since crossed the monetary twilight zone of negative rates, and which is spiraling ever deeper into NIRP, below we present some quite fascinating observations on debt, NIRP and how the latter leads to the deleveraging of the former, and thus encourages global deflation - something which in retrospect will be (and in many cases already has been) seen as a central bank fatal flaw, and confirmation said central bankers have zero understanding of the process they have unleashed.

The Evil Empire Has The World In An Economic "Death Grip"

A decade ago John Perkins exposed the world to the ugly reality of Washington's "Economic Hit Men." Now he is back, exposing the fact that the evil empire has the world in the grip of a "death economy," concluding that "we need a revolution" in order "to bury the death economy and birth the life economy." But, as Paul Craig Roberts adds, don’t look to politicians, neoliberal economists, and presstitutes for any help.

Fed's Kashkari Says "We Won't See Next Crisis Coming", Compares Banks To Risky Nuclear Reactors

"Unfortunately, I am far more skeptical that these tools will be useful to policymakers in the second scenario of a stressed economic environment. Given the massive externalities on Main Street of large bank failures in terms of lost jobs, lost income and lost wealth, no rational policymaker would risk restructuring large firms and forcing losses on creditors and counterparties using the new tools in a risky environment, let alone in a crisis environment like we experienced in 2008. They will be forced to bail out failing institutions—as we were."