Creditors

A rumour has been making its way around the blogosphere suggesting that gold coins are not available for purchase from retail outlets across Europe. This information is misleading and incorrect.

The algo reaction to "Greece is willing to make concessions," was a immediate vertical ramp higher... which was quickly obliterated when the humans read further that Greece "will not cut its existing pensions," thus meaning no deal is close as the EU demands just that. EURUSD has been weaker all morning...

The world is on the brink of the longest-lasting oil glut in at least three decades and OPEC’s quest for market share makes it almost unavoidable. Oil supply has exceeded demand globally for the past five quarters, already the most enduring glut since the 1997 Asian economic crisis, International Energy Agency data show. But as WolfStreet.com's Wolf Richter warns, if Iran and world powers reach an accord on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program by their June 30 deadline, we’ll be watching the most magnificent oil glut ever building up into next year.

• Greek central bank issues 'Grexit' warning if aid talks fail (Reuters)
• Kerry says 'patience wearing thin' on Syria's Assad (Reuters)
• Juncker accuses Athens of misleading Greek people (FT)
• Al Qaeda kills two Saudis accused of spying for America (Reuters)
• Hedge-Fund Bet Hits Pensions (WSJ)
• ‘Flash Crash’ Trader Navinder Sarao Worked With Fund Network Now Under Investigation (WSJ)
• 'Me? Rich?' U.S. presidential hopefuls play middle-class card (Reuters)
• You’ve Been Warned: Central Bankers Turning Less Market-Friendly (BBG)

With the Fed's June FOMC statement in just over 7 hours and a Yellen press conference to follow shortly, one in which nobody expects the Fed will announces its first rate-hiking cycle in nine years despite repeated clues by Yellen that not only is there froth in the market but that the Fed has no dry powder to contain the next crisis when it emerges (even though a rate hike will catalyze the next crisis), traders have chosen to ignore the chatter from Greece which is getting worse by the hour, and unlike recent days, have bought risk overnight based on one simple technical: of the five press conferences in ten Fed meetings held by Yellen as Chairman, the S&P finished higher 80% of the time.

Syriza has stuck to what it said all along: negotiations are possible, but not about everything. Not about making a desperate people even more desperate. Not only is that useless and harmful to all parties involved in the talks, it’s also immoral. Granted, ‘immoral’ may be considered a subjective view too. Then again, it shouldn’t be. But let’s get real: What does any of this have to do with democracy anymore? And, more importantly, where does it leave the democratic rights of the Greek people? Do they need to be fed lies too to participate in this game?

Caught between a recalcitrant Left Platform and exasperated creditors, Greek PM Alexis Tsipras must decide how he wants history to remember his tenure as Prime Minister. Either he will be the leader who allowed Greece to crash out of the euro on its way to a redomination-driven economic collapse, or he will go down as the fiery advocate for change who caved under pressure and allowed the troika to stamp out democracy in the place where it was born. 

European leaders may convene an emergency summit this Sunday to decide Greece's fate as Varoufakis says no new proposal from Athens will be tabled at Thursday's meeting of EU finance ministers. With capital controls now imminent, and with Greece reportedly set to delay a June 30 IMF payment, a "Lehman Weekend" looms.

The one most recurring laments coming out of peripheral European countries which boast near record youth unemployment, in most cases around the 50% area, is that the only reason why there is no growth is due to "evil austerity", imposed upon them by Germany and other frugal Northern Europe overseerers, who do not permit the rampant issuance of debt to fund domestic spending and fiscual stimulus programs. There is one problem with that: the peripheral European countries are not only issuing debt at a pace that is greater than the "pre-austerity" period, but these nations' debt to GDP ratios have never been higher!

Greek 10Y yields are breaking back above 13%, bonds ar trading at 50 cents on the dollar, Greek stocks are near multi-decade lows, and Greek bank bonds have collapsed amid the ever-more-likely Grexit (or at least redenomination amid capital controls). But, there are some very smart chaps who must know something Tsipras, Merkel, and the rest of the world does not... because they are spending "Other People's Money" to buy the dip in Greek stocks and bonds. From Allianz and PIMCO (the world's lagest Greek bondholder ex-ECB) to Putnam and Wilbur Ross, it seems more than a few American investors will be impacted should Greece really implode.

With the S&P 500 2% off record highs, we are sure talking-heads will proclaim "any Greece actions are more than priced in," but as Bank Safra's chief economist Karsten Junius warns, forget happy endings, "Disorderly Default" is now the most likely outcome for Greece.

With his back against the wall, and with Syriza party hardliners apparently no closer to backing concessions, Alexis Tsipras looks set to once again play the ‘Russian pivot” card, as the Kremlin says a “working meeting” between the Greek PM and Russian President Vladimir Putin is now scheduled for Friday in St. Petersburg.

“But the truly game-changing aspect of this proposal … lies in the “system” part.  This would be an advanced, state-owned and operated system of electronic payments and settlements, denominated in ounces of precious metals, barred from engaging in lending, leasing, speculative or derivative transactions, and always maintaining a 100% ratio

In the wake of reports that Greece could be headed for a "Lehman Weekend" complete with capital controls and an "emergency" Sunday meeting, the headlines are coming fast and furious on Tuesday morning, with Tsipras calling the IMF's stance "criminal" and Merkel digging in for the worst.

Another day of constant Grexit chatter, and this time the futures are really starting to react as what was seen as mostly impossible for the past 4 months is now almost inevitable. The first tremors emerged when Greece announced it would not present a new proposal to the Eurogroup to unlock aid, relying instead on what has already been submitted and which the Troika said was inadequate. Then, confusing matters, a new GPO poll posted on Greece's Mega TV showed that increasingly more, or over 56% at last count, of Greece would prefer a "bad" deal with creditors than being kicked out of the Eurozone putting the future of Tsipras' cabine tin jeopardy. And then, hinting that the endgame is officially here, the FT reported that "Eurozone officials discuss holding emergency summit on Greece", suggesting a second Lehman weekend may be just around the corner.