• Marc To Market
    08/29/2015 - 10:18
    Dollar recovered from the exaggerated panic at the start of last week.  Outlook is still constructive.  Here is an overview of the technical condition of currencies, bonds, oil , and S&...

Creditors

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Syriza "Rebels" Planned To Ransack Greek Mint, Seize Cash Reserves, Arrest Central Bank Governor





Syriza hardliner Panayotis Lafazanis and "a diverse group of far left activists from supporters of the late Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez to old-fashioned communists," planned to take over the Greek mint, commandeer the country’s reserves, and arrest Yannis Stournaras, the governor of the Bank of Greece, FT says, describing a secret plot hatched at an Athens hotel last Wednesday.

 
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Troika Returns To A Conquered Greece Amid Anger, Security Threats





"The letter has been sent." Greece formally invites the troika back to Athens sparking anger, resentment among a conquered people.

 
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Commodity Clobbering Continues As Amazon Lifts Futures





After yesterday's latest drop in stocks driven by "old economy" companies such as CAT, which sent the Dow Jones back to red for the year and the S&P fractionally unchanged, today has been a glaring example of the "new" vs "old" economy contrast, with futures propped up thanks to strong tech company earnings after the close, chief among which Amazon, which gained $40 billion in after hours trading and has now surpassed Walmart as the largest US retailer. As a result Brent crude is little changed near 2-wk low after disappointing Chinese manufacturing data fueled demand concerns, adding to bearish sentiment in an oversupplied mkt. WTI up ~26c, trimming losses after yday falling to lowest since March 31 to close in bear mkt. Both Brent and WTI are set for 4th consecutive week of declines; this is the longest losing streak for Brent since Jan., for WTI since March.

 
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Hoisington On Bond Market Misperceptions: "Secular Low In Treasury Yields Still To Come"





In almost all cases, including the most recent rise, the intermittent change in psychology that drove interest rates higher in the short run, occurred despite weakening inflation. There was, however, always a strong sentiment that the rise marked the end of the bull market, and a major trend reversal was taking place. This is also the case today. Presently, four misperceptions have pushed Treasury bond yields to levels that represent significant value for long-term investors. While Treasury bond yields have repeatedly shown the ability to rise in response to a multitude of short-run concerns that fade in and out of the bond market on a regular basis, the secular low in Treasury bond yields is not likely to occur until inflation troughs and real yields are well below long-run mean values.

 
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PIMCO "Sees Long-Term Value" In Chicago's "Junk" Ahead Of Key Court Ruling





Junk-rated Chicago is paying nearly 8% to issue debt these days and although the city's fiscal woes are set to persist, some asset managers are taking the plunge ahead of a key court ruling scheduled for Friday.

 
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Grexit Remains Most Likely Outcome For JPMorgan





On Wednesday evening, Greece took another step toward transforming itself into a vassal state of Brussels when lawmakers passed a second set of prior actions ahead of formal discussions around a third program. As Deutsche Bank noted earlier this week, there’s something quite absurd about the adoption of the new bailout terms being left to a government whose leader openly opposes the deal. And Deutsche Bank isn’t alone in their skepticism. JP Morgan has more on why no one "should put the odds of Greece staying in the euro above 50%".

 
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Frontrunning: July 23





  • Greek PM keeps lid on party rebellion to pass bailout vote (Reuters)
  • Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras Remains Popular Despite Tough Bailout Deal (WSJ)
  • Beijing's stock rescue has $800 billion bark, small market bite (Reuters)
  • Capital exodus from China reaches $800bn as crisis deepens (Telegraph)
  • Why Investors Shy Away From China’s $6.4 Trillion Bond Market (WSJ)
  • Oil Rigs Left Idling Turn Caribbean Into Expensive Parking Lot (BBG)
  • Bank of America replaces CFO in management shake-up (Reuters)
  • The Financial Buzz? Pearson to sell Financial Times (Reuters)
 
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Greek Lawmakers Clear The Way For Formal Bailout Discussions





As expected, the Greek parliament has approved a second set of prior measures, clearing the way for formal discussions on a third bailout program for the debt-stricken country. 36 Syriza lawmakers did not support the bill.

 
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$900 Million Payday Is Billionaires' Reward For Crushing Twinkie-Maker's Labor Unions





After investing $410 million in March 2013, two billionaires are about to make a $500 million return an investment they have held just over two years, with the blessing of a whole lot of debt investors. And all they had to do was pick up the carcass of a company which did nothing more than crush its unions.

 
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In Case You Needed Any More Proof That There Is No Bond Market Liquidity Left...





Here are just two anecdotes to confirm that not virtually nobody is left to trade bonds any more (as confirmed by the plunging FICC revenues reported by the big banks in Q2), but the reason for this is that there is no bond market liquidity left, a topic extensively covered here for the past 3 years.

 
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Ongoing Greece Deposit Run Forces ECB To Boost Greek ELA Ceiling Yet Again





Despite the imploring of Greek bankers for Greeks to "take your money out of your chests and houses – which are not safe in any case – and deposit at banks," it appears the Greek bank deposit run continues. As The ECB just announced another €900 million increase in Emergency Liquidity Assistance, strongly suggesting that in the 2 days since the last increase, banks are once again insolvent facing a liquidity crunch as the "banks are trustworthy" propaganda falls on very deaf Greek ears.

 
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Apple, Microsoft Plunge Drags Global Markets Lower, Oil Resumes Slide





While this week has been, and continues to be, devoid of macro updates, yesterday's flurry of mostly disappointing earnings releases both before and after the open, including some of the biggest DJIA companies as well as the current and previously biggest and most important companies in the world, AAPL and MSFT, both of which came crashing down following earnings and forecasts that were well short of market expectations, came as a jolt to a market that was artificially priced by central bank liquidity and HFT momo algos beyond perfection. Add to that yesterday's downward revision to historical industrial production which confirmed the US economy is a step away from recession, as well as last night's Crude API inventory build which is once again pressuring WTI lower and on the verge of a 49 handle, and perhaps the biggest question is why are futures not much lower.

 
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So You Say You "Don't" Want A Revolution?





What if Syriza were not just a particularly fluffy breed of miniature Europoodle but actual honest-to-goodness revolutionaries, ready to do whatever it takes? How would they act differently? And what would be the result? Given that the price is so high, perhaps it would be better after all if we just sat quietly, allowed the rich get richer as the poor get poorer, watched listlessly as the environment got completely destroyed by capitalist industrialists in blind pursuit of profit, and eventually curled up, kissed our sweet asses good-bye and died? Good luck selling that idea to young radicalized hotheads who have nothing to lose - except maybe you, if you happen to stand in their way as they change the world!

 
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Define Irony: Greek Banks Refuse To Buy ESM Bonds To Fund Greek Bailout





In the latest example of what happens when circular funding schemes begin to trip over each other, National Bank of Greece has refused to participate in an auction for paper issued by the bailout fund which is set to recapitalize the Greek banking sector. 

 
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Greeks Laugh As Bankers Beg Depositors To Return Money





President of Greek Banks Association Louka Katseli appealed at the citizens to return their money to the banks. “Banks are absolutely trustworthy,” Katseli told Mega TV, “Let’s all help our economy... If you take your money out of your chests and houses – which are not safe in any case – and deposit at banks, this will enhance liquidity.” Katseli’s appeal triggered laughter among Greeks with one exclaiming “Ah sure! Banks will never see my money again, I prefer to buy tonnes of peanuts with it.”

 
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