Creditors

Goldman: "Greece Will Remain In Euro Even If It Votes No", And How Markets Will React

The time to negotiate the Greek referendum this Sunday has come and gone and at this point, one can only sit and wait as the vote results start trickling in on Sunday evening. And, as Goldman's Huw Pill prudently observes, the outcome of Sunday's Greek referendum is uncertain. "Regardless of the outcome, Greece will continue to face substantial economic dislocation in the shorter term." What is interesting is that Goldman says "Greece will ultimately remain in the Euro area even in the event of a ‘No’ vote."

EU Parliament President Tells Greece:Time For Another Puppet Government

European Parliament president Martin Schulz said his faith in the Greek government had reached "rock bottom," and, as AFP reports, that he hopes it resigns after Sunday's referendum. Luckily, he has an idea for a solution... the time between the departure of Tsipras' hard-left Syriza party and new elections would have to "be bridged with a technocratic government, so that we can continue to negotiate." Just what The Greeks need - another "Yes man" puppet government to implement whatever Europe's bankers demand.

Fed Whisperer Hilsenrath Hints: Despite Jobs Miss, Yellen Will Hike In 2015

There are two narratives, according to WSJ's Fed whisperer Jon Hilsenrath, that need to be considered when judging the Fed's next steps. First is, the economy stumbled in Q1 but everything will be awesome going forward (so we should hike rates); and a second newer narrative is the turmoil overseas which could be exaggerated by Fed actions. Hilsenrath hints today that despite the miss in jobs data, it remains above 200,000 and "suggests the U.S. economy finished the first half of the year with a solid foundation to weather turbulence from overseas," giving The Fed room to hike.

Frontrunning: July 2

  • Chinese stocks tumble again, ignoring Beijing's blandishments (Reuters)
  • Plight of Greek pensioners heaps pressure on Tsipras (Reuters)
  • Cash Crunch Hits Everyday Life in Greece (WSJ)
  • Souvlakis Tell a Story Well Beyond Today's Greek Crisis (BBG)
  • Greek Referendum on Bailout Too Close to Call, Poll Shows (BBG)
  • Move Over Greece: For Treasuries Traders, Today Is About the Fed (BBG)
  • ECB adds corporate names to QE-eligible bonds (FT)
  • Special Report: How Greece went bust (Reuters)
  • Puerto Rico’s Pain Is Tied to U.S. Wages (WSJ)

Goldman: "ECB Will Have To Go Big"

When it comes to Europe, Greece lost the blame game, and just like the Ukraine civil war last year, became an unwitting catalyst greenlighting Germany's concession to ECB QE, this time it may be Greece that launches the next step in the ECB's master plan: not just QE but more QE. This is precisely what Goldman's Franceso Garzarelli, co-head of macro and markets research, admitted earlier today in an interview on Bloomberg TV, when he said that the ECB "will have to go big" if the situation in Greece worsens and leads to wider peripheral bond yield spreads.

"What If Berlin And Frankfurt Do Not Budge" - How Varoufakis Saw The "Worst Case Scenario"

What if Berlin and Frankfurt do not budge? What if they tell Athens to ‘go jump of the tallest cliff’? I have good cause to hope that Berlin will prefer to accommodate the Greek government and to look with a great deal more ‘kindness’ the ‘request’ for a debt relief conference. And if it does not, and wishes to bring the Eurozone down with it, let it do its worst, I say.

Next Steps For Greece: The Complete Post-Referendum Roadmap

As we await Tsipras' response to reports which indicate he is set to concede to creditors' proposals in exchange for a deal that rescues his country from the brink of economic oblivion, Barclays and Bloomberg are out with referendum roadmaps.

Leaked Troika Documents Show Greece Needs Huge Debt Relief

Just when you think things can’t get any crazier, they always do. The Guardian reports on unpublished Troika documents that show Greece is only too right in asking for debt relief. That for the Syriza government to sign what the Troika wants to force them to sign would see Tsipras et al plunge their country into a financial hell hole.