Creditors

Wealthy Greeks Slam "Incompetent Communists Ruining The Country", Demand EU "Save" Greece

Despite the market's exuberant hope that everything will be contained and business-as-usual will resume shortly in Europe, the message from the wealthiest Greeks is very different... As The FT reports, not since the nation's civil war has Greek society been riven by deep divisions between left and right as Greece's financial plight reopens old wounds. "The government are incompetent and are ruining the country because they are communists and do not understand reality," said Maria, a banker. "But there has to be a deal. The EU has to save us," she said, fingering her golden necklace. "Right?"

Jakobsen: Why Stocks Will Fall - "Consensus Is Wrong On US Rate Hikes"

Stock markets in the US and Europe are in for a correction, while the euro is set to rise, according to Saxo Bank’s Chief Economist Steen Jakobsen, nomatter what happens between Greece and its creditors. Steen also looks at the impact a rate hike from the US Federal Reserve would have on USD and what currencies could gain once the Fed decides to move on rates, noting that "the consensus has it wrong on the timing of US rate hike," as the credit cycle topped in June 2014. He believes that commodities and metals in particular offer opportunities for investors.

Goldman's "Conspiracy Theory" Stunner: A Greek Default Is Precisely What The ECB Wants

"... the immediate aftermath of such a non-payment will be to push bond yields up across the periphery. This rise in the fiscal risk premium (Exhibit 3) will of course be limited, because the ECB will likely accelerate QE, including via the Bundesbank. That will push rate differentials, especially longer-dated ones, against EUR/$. We estimate that the initial fiscal risk premium effect could be three big figures, while the subsequent QE effect could be worth around seven big figures"

"Greece Is Rescued", Economy Minister Tells BBC

While we have seen countless such reports in recent weeks and months, and take each and every one with a mine of salt, the reason ES algos just took out overnight highs was due to a BBC interview - which will be broadcast "shortly" - in which BBC economic editor Robert Peston was told by the Greek economic minister George Stathakis that "he believes Greece's new proposals to balance the government's books have broken the deadlock with its creditors." He said he expects eurozone government heads to issue a communique later today that will say there is now a basis for a formal agreement with Athens to complete the current bailout programme and release €7.2bn of vital funds.

European FinMins Douse Market's Rabid Greek Optimism

While the politicians do what politicians will do (i.e. lie when it "becomes serious"), those who have a predisposition towards pragmatism are indicating that Monday's 'emergency' Greek summit is nothing but a media spectacle that will produce nothing in the way of concrete results and is likely only good for giving the algos a few headlines to chase.

Frontrunning: June 22

  • Mood brightens after latest Greek offer to creditors (Reuters)
  • ECB's Nowotny - Greek banks have funding extension for today (Reuters)
  • Any Greece deal must match party manifesto, minister says (Reuters)
  • Greece says now up to lenders to move on an agreement (Reuters)
  • Greece sends wrong documents to monitors... Again (FT)
  • U.S. won't let Russia 'drag us back to the past': Pentagon chief (Reuters)
  • Belgium unblocks part of Russian diplomatic missions’ frozen accounts (Tass)
  • Fed Scoop Heralded Era of Closed Doors for $100,000 Newsletters (BBG)

Stocks Soar, Germany's Dax Set For Biggest Gain In Three Years On Greek Deal "Optimism"

today is Friday taken to the nth degree, with the markets having already declared if not victory then the death of all Greek "contagion" leverage, following news that a new Greek proposal was sent yesterday (which as we summarized does not include any of the demanded by the Troika pension cuts), ignoring news that Greece had again sent Belgium the wrong proposal which the market has taken as a sign of capitulation by Tsipras, and as a result futures are surging higher by nearly 1%, the German DAX is up a whopping 3.1%, on track for the biggest one day gain in three years, Greek stocks up over 8%, German and US Treasurys sliding while Greek and peripheral bonds are surging.

Goldman And SocGen Unleash The "C"-Word: ECB Alone Can't Contain Grexit Risks

Unnamed "officials" have proclaimed a new set of Greek proposals received by Brussels tonight as "a good base," according to AFP, and thusly the Euro is very modestly bid. However, both Socgen (without a 3rd bailout of €60-80 billion over the next 3 years, Greek uncertainty remains high and leaves Grexit risk merely semi-stable) and Goldman (a deal will come only after the introduction of capital controls, a technical default on the IMF and issuance of IOUs/and a further build-up of arreas... and the damage resulting from a breaking of the integrity of the Euro would not be fixed by monetary policy alone) leave us wondering just who is buying Euros and US stocks and selling Swiss Francs as D(efault) Day looms and the 'C' word (contagion) spreads.

Greece Told To Have A Deal Ready Before Monday Meeting; Tsipras Submits Revised Plan With No Pension Cuts

With just under 24 hours until Monday's final summit after which even JPMorgan now agrees the ECB will be forced to use a nuclear option and limit or cut Greek ELA thus imposing capital controls as a "negotiating tactic", earlier today both France and Germany told Greece it must have a reform deal agreement with the Troika finalized and delivered before a crucial leaders’ summit between Athens and its creditors on Monday; in other words before trading opens on Monday.

Greek GDP: The Shocking Reality Vs IMF Forecasts; And Who Is To Blame For The Greek Implosion

With a Greek default, shortly followed by a Grexit, a collapse of the "irreversible union" (but... but... "political capital"), and ultimately the end of the latest European monetary union experiment (the latest in a long and illustrious series of prior failures) now seemingly imminent, the blame game has begun. As the NYT noted overnight "the recriminations that would then fly would be so bitter that they would inflict a second round of damage." But who is really to blame? Simple: anyone and everyone who willingly and voluntarily was complicit with the great "can kicking" bailout fiction of the past 5 years...

Paul Craig Roberts: "Washington Is Impotent To Prevent Armageddon"

The West is impotent to prevent Armageddon. It is up to Russia and China, and as Washington has framed the dilemma, Armageddon can only be prevented by Russia and China accepting vassal status. This is not going to happen. Why would any self-respecting people submit to the corrupt West? The hope is that Washington will cause its European vassals to rebel by pushing them too hard into conflict with Russia. If European politicians were to break from Washington’s hegemony and instead represent European interests, Washington would be deprived of cover for its war crimes. The breakdown of the neoconservative unipower model would then be apparent even to Washington, and the world would become a safer and better place.

Signs Of Financial Turmoil Are Brewing In Europe, China And The United States

As we move toward the second half of 2015, signs of financial turmoil are appearing all over the globe. Slowly but surely, we are starting to see the smart money head for the exits. As one Swedish fund manager put it recently, everyone wants “to avoid being caught on the wrong side of markets once the herd realizes stocks are over-valued“.

Debt: War And Empire By Other Means

The economic hitmen have honed their skills among the poor and relatively defenseless, and have been coming closer to home in search of new hunting grounds and fatter spoils. There is nothing 'new' or 'modern' about this. The only difference is that it is not happening in the past or in a book, it is happening here and now. "Economic powers continue to justify the current global system where priority tends to be given to speculation and the pursuit of financial gain. As a result, whatever is fragile is defenseless before the interests of the deified market, which becomes the only rule."