• EconMatters
    11/24/2015 - 14:25
    Focus on policies promoting economic growth, lower taxes, and spending tax receipts more efficiently and not on one`s sexual orientation in the bedroom.


Tyler Durden's picture

Crude Slides After API Reports Another Huge Inventory Build At Cushing

Following last week's modest inventory build, API reports another much larger-than-expected build in total crude inventories (+2.6mm barrels). This is the 9th weekly build in a row for total crude inventory but more worrisome is the 3rd weekly surge in Cushing inventories (+1.9mm build) as we warned previously, land storage fears are starting to rise.

Tyler Durden's picture

Presenting SocGen's 5 Black Swans For 2016

November has been a banner month for black swans. From Leftist political coups in Portugal to terror attacks in Paris to downed Russian fighter jets in Syria, the market is gradually learning to expect the unexpected. In its latest Quarterly Economic Outlook, SocGen outlines five political and economic black swans that could land in 2016.

Tyler Durden's picture

"Sell In December And Go Away" - Why Goldman Sees The Market Going Nowhere In 2016

When it comes to 2016, Goldman says that it is "deja vu all over again", and that the S&P 500 index will tread water for a second consecutive year. Specifically Goldman says that its "year-end 2016 target of 2100 represents a 1% price gain from the current index level (2089), which itself is just 1% above the year-end 2014 level of 2059." Here are the reasons why Goldman expects all the main themes from 2015 to be repeated in the coming year, and why the one can just sell on December 31, 2015 and go away for the next year:

Tyler Durden's picture

Russia Declares Warplane Downing A "Hostile Act" But Will It Cut Turkish Gas Supplies?

Some have suggested Vladmir Putin's first retaliation for the Turkish shooting down of a Russian fighter jet would be to cut off gas supplies (which represent 57% of Turkey's supply). With Russia Defense Minister stating that the "downing of the Russian warplane is a 'hostile act'," adding that the defense ministry is "devising a set of measures to respond to the incident," it seems taking the 'nuclear option' of cutting off 20% of Erdogan's entire energy supply would be a strong first non-lethal non-World-War-3-starting step.

Tyler Durden's picture

"We Are Gone... Now!" - Dennis Gartman Stopped Out As Oil Surges

On Friday Nov. 20th we sold a half unit each of nearby January WTI trading at or near to $41.85 and nearby Brent trading at or very near to $44.23, giving us an average of $43.04. Our stated risk, was 2% on the position, so the stops were set at $42.10 and $45.11 respectively, and we used our “hour or so” methodology; that is, we’d want to see crude trade through those levels “for an hour or so” before activating the stops in question. Those stops have been activated. The Saudis caught us off. We are gone… now!

Tyler Durden's picture

Global Stocks Slide, Futures Drop After Turkey Shoots Down Russian Warplane

It had been a relatively quiet session overnight when as reported previously, the geopolitical situation in the middle east changed dramatically in a moment, when NATO-member country Turkey downed a Russian fighter jet allegedly over Turkish territory even though the plane crashed in Syria, and whose pilots may have been captured by local rebel forces. The news promptly slammed Turkish assets and FX, sending the Lira tumbling, pushing lower European stocks and US equity futures while sending 2 Year German Bunds to record negative yields.

Tyler Durden's picture

"Get Out Of Your Trucks And Run Away": US Gives ISIS 45 Minute Warning On Oil Tanker Strikes

"Warning: airstrikes are coming. Oil trucks will be destroyed. Get away from your oil trucks immediately. Get out of your trucks and run away. Do not risk your life."

Tyler Durden's picture

Saudi De-Peg Looms As FX Market Signals Loudest "Black Swan Warning" In 13 Years

As we noted recently, BofAML fears "a depeg of the Saudi riyal is the number one black-swan event for the global oil market in 2016," adding that it is "a highly unlikely but highly impactful risk." Given the recent action in Saudi Riyal forwards - the market's best guess at where the oil-ruch nation's currency will trade in the future - the chance of the black swan 'de-peg' is its highest since 2002. Besides this morning's "whatever it takes" moment, which oil markets quickly shrugged off, amid heavy subsidies to keep the people calm and the costs of wars in Yemen (and more in Syria), weak oil revenues leave The Sauds with few options (outside of the load the nation with ever more debt program): It's either stop it with the whole flooding an oversupplied market strategy, or let the peg fall before reserves runs dry.

Capitalist Exploits's picture

You Stupid, Stupid Boy! (Education of an Investor)

If you think you're fighting the market, or the banks, or the Fed, you're dead wrong!

Tyler Durden's picture

Oil Tumbles Back Into Red As Saudi "Whatever It Takes" Jawboning Is Not Enough

Just 2 hours after news broke of Saudi officials discussing the need to do "whatever it takes" to stabilize the oil market - sending crude soaring - half the gains are gone. With the algos tagging Friday's highs, WTI Crude has tumbled back into the red from Friday's close as traders want action not words to solve the massive global oil glut...

Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: November 23

  • Brussels on Edge as Lockdown Continues (WSJ)
  • Stocks Pare Decline as Crude Oil Erases Drop on Saudi Comments (BBG)
  • Italy’s Eni Plans to Pump Arctic Oil, After Others Abandon the Field (WSJ)
  • Treasuries Decline as Economists Say GDP to Be Revised Higher (BBG)
  • Why the Housing Rebound Hasn’t Lifted the U.S. Economy Much (WSJ)
  • Argentina Fever Is Back for Investors as Kirchner Rival Triumphs (BBG)
Tyler Durden's picture

Oil Surges After Saudi Arabia Pulls A Draghi, Says Will Do "Whatever It Takes" For Stable Oil Market

The oil producers are rapidly learning from the central banks how to jawbone markets higher. With both Brent and WTI sliding as recently as ten minutes ago, suddenly a buying frenzy was unleashed following a Bloomberg headline which cited the Saudi Press Agency, according to which the world's largest crude exporter was ready to pull a Draghi and would do "whatever it takes" for a stable oil market, and that it would cooperate with OPEC and non-OPEC members for stable prices.

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