Futures Drop As ECB Confusion Persists, Dollar Rises To Seven Month High; Yuan Plunges

Asian stocks and S&P futures fall modestly and European shares are little changed as traders digested the surprising reticence from yesterday's ECB meeting. The dollar jumped to 7 month highs, pressuring EM currencies and pushing the euro to its weakest level since March and below the Brexit lows, after Mario Draghi shut down talk of tapering, while the Yuan dropped to the lowest since 2010.

Nigeria Slashes Oil Prices, Admits There Is A "Huge" Cargo Glut

Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation lowered by at least $1 a barrel its official selling prices (OSPs) for 20 out of 26 oil grades. Qua Iboe, Nigeria’s largest export crude under normal circumstances, was reduced by the most since 2014.  The reason for the dramatic price cuts according NNPC, the state oil company, is a  “huge cargo overhang" as the country attempts to regain market share.

Frontrunning: October 20

  • Global stocks nudge higher after final U.S. presidential debate (Reuters)
  • Trump, Clinton Double Down: Final Debate By the Numbers (BBG)
  • Will Trump accept election's outcome? 'I will keep you in suspense' (Reuters)
  • After Sedate Start, Trump Takes the Bait (WSJ)
  • ‘Rigged’ Election Charge Takes Spotlight (WSJ)

Global Stocks, US Futures Modestly Higher As Debate Digested, Draghi Eyed

Global stocks were modestly higher, before the European Central Bank gives its policy update, while investors weigh mixed earnings results. Asian stocks rise, U.S. equity-index futures are little changed.  The euro touched its weakest level since July and stocks in the region fell after their first back-to-back gains in two weeks.

Trump-Clinton III: The Final Sin-City Showdown - Live Feed

Following Pence's pounding of Kaine and Trump's trouncing of Clinton in the last two debates, the final showdown promises fireworks. Trump's arsenal is full after two weeks of embarrassing documents from WikiLeaks and The FBI, and with the news cycle beginning to lose contact with his sexual harrassment allegations, Clinton (having gone dark for a week) will remain focused on temperament, temperament, temperament.. and the fact that Trump is not a woman.

'Subtle Forward Guidance' - Trying To Fool The Marginal Oil Investor Everything's Under Control

So-called "forward guidance" is aimed at trying to fool the marginal investor into believing “there is no need for worry, central bankers have everything under control”. Unsurprisingly, as with all psychological conditioning, forward guidance has lost its effect as more and more market participants lose confidence in central banks and their promise that everything will eventually mean revert to happier days... However, this unfortunate practice is making in-roads into the most important of commodity markets: crude oil.

WTI Crude Spikes After Major Crude Inventory Draw Trumps Production Increase

Oil held gains overnight following API's surprise crude inventory draw, DOE data surprised even more with a massive 5.247mm draw (2.1mm build exp). Cushing saw the biggest draw in 6 months but we note that Gasoline inventories rose 2.469mm barrels - the biggest build since Feb. Production rose very modestly but hovers around the 8.5mm b/d level. WTI is spiking and RBOB lagging after the print.

US Futures, Global Stocks Mixed After Lackluster Chinese Economic Data; Oil Rises Over $51

US futures were little changed, with European shares lower, and Asian stocks higher as caution returned after last night's Chinese economic data did little to clear up how the world's second largest economy is performing, and provided few positives for investors ahead of the third and final U.S. presidential debate; imminent announcements from both the ECB and the Fed also will keep traders on their toes today.

WTI Surges Above $51 After Unexpected Crude Inventory Draw

Seasonally, expectations are for continued builds in inventories (following last week's biggest build in 6 months) but API reported a massive 3.8mm drawdown (against 2.1mm build expectations) sending WTI prices soaring. Distillates also saw a notable draw as Gasoline built modestly. Cushing saw the biggest draw since Feb 2014.