Crude

Global Stocks, S&P Futures Little Changed On Brexit Day

Brexit day has finally arrived, and despite this major "risk event", European and Asian stocks are trading mixed, while S&P futures are just fractionally lower as a bounce on optimism over the American economy appears to have fizzled and President Trump continues to struggle to pass his legislative agenda. The pound first dipped then rose as the U.K. is set to begin its life outside the EU. 

RBOB Tumbles After Lower Than Expected Gasoline Draw

After an early spike on Libya production fears and OPEC production cut extension hope, WTI and RBOB faded all day on dollar strength ahead of the API data. The trend of builds in Crude and draws in gasoline and distillates continued but the gasoline draw was notably less than expected and has sparked selling in RBOB.

RBC: "The Market Is Looking Increasingly Binary"

"Without movement here, the market is looking increasingly binary, with momentum building again in the ‘disinflation’ camp the longer we stay ‘stuck’ in status quo, ESPECIALLY into the back-half of the year, with the Fed again hiking and the ECB transitioning towards ‘tightening’ as well."

Iron Ore Tumbles As China Steel-Producing Hub Found Lying About Production Cuts

China's top steel producing province Hebei was ordered by China's central government to investigate firms in Tangshan that have "restricted but not cut production, restricted production but not actually cut emissions, and cut capacity but actually increased output," according to a provincial notice dated March 25.

Goldman Warns OPEC Production Cut Extension Will Backfire, Result In Lower Prices

"Oil prices above $60/bbl would prove self defeating in our view given the flattening of the oil cost curve and the unprecedented velocity of the shale supply response." A decision to extend cuts, "would only exacerbate the backwardation that we project... and created downside risk to our 2018 $58/bbl forecast."

It's "Judgment Time": Goldman Sees Three Options For Traders

Judgment Time … Options Include: 1) get bearish S&P for a trade; 2) don’t fight the primary trend -- this is a melt-up, and there are good (macro) reasons behind it; 3) simplify the portfolio; wait for better location to re-load length.

Frontrunning: March 27

  • Markets Slide on Doubts that Trump Can Deliver (BBG)
  • Dollar hits four-month low as Trump trade deflates (Reuters)
  • These Charts Show Alarm Bells Ringing on Trump Trade (BBG)
  • White House may court Democrats on tax reform (Reuters)
  • Republicans Could Have Another Fight Over Tax Overhaul (WSJ)
  • 'Religious left' emerging as U.S. political force in Trump era (Reuters)

Global Stocks Slide, S&P Futures Tumble Below 50DMA As "Trump Trade" Collapses

Global stocks are lower across the board to start the week, as concerns about Trump's administration to pull off a material tax reform plan finally emerge, pressuring S&P futures some 20 points lower this morning, following European and Asian shares lower, while crude oil prices fall unable to find support in this weekend's OPEC meeting in Kuwait where a committee recommended to extend oil production cuts by another 6 months.

RBC Emergency Market Update: "Big Trouble For Consensus Trades"

'Long Dollar' trades are currently seen unwinding ‘real-time’ as ‘the world’s most crowded trade’ and ‘reflation’ proxy earlier this evening broke the convergence of both its 200dma and the 76.4% Fibo Retracement of the entire Dollar move since the US election—exposing significant downside. There will be major implications within equities too.