Crude

Junk Bonds Are Finally Starting To Care About Oil

"The recent price action in the oil market and the stronger response of the HY Energy sector has prompted many market participants to question the ability of the broader HY market to continue to resist lower oil prices. In our view, the bar remains high for oil prices to become the main directional driver of HY spreads but the risk has risen."

Euro Surges To 2-Year High In "Bipolar" Draghi Reaction; Futures Flat

"Draghi tried to talk the Euro down, even going so far as to suggest that ECB’s quantitative easing could be increased and prolonged," said Swissquote Bank's Yann Quelenn. "But the currency markets were not buying Draghi’s line, and neither are we. Available bonds are too scarce, and turn to a taper is too clear to disguise."

U.S. May Halt Oil Imports From Venezuela

The Trump administration is mulling over sanctions against senior Venezuelan government officials, and additional measures could include sanctions against the country’s oil industry, such as halting imports into the U.S., according to senior Washington officials who spoke to media.

RBC Warns Of Looming "Cocktail For Fall Volatility"

"This combination of ‘interest rate vol’ events could drive another bout of ‘taper tantrum’ into the late Summer liquidity doldrums and fresh off of the ‘synthetic tranquility’ of US equity earnings season - a cocktail for Fall Vol on the resumption of ‘policy convergence’ and ‘tightening into slowing backdrop’ fears..."

World Stocks Hit Record High For 10th Consecutive Day In "No-Vol Nirvana"

Traders, so mostly algos, are riding a global risk "high" in stocks as Asia's and then Europe's early 0.4 percent gains ensured MSCI's 47-country All World index was up for a 10th straight session. This is the longest winning streak in global stocks since February 2015 and shows little sign of fatigue even as bond yields edged modestly higher again.

"ECB Or Not To Be": A Preview Of What Mario Draghi Will Say

Questions on possible exit scenarios will dominate the press conference. While acknowledging the strength of the economy, Draghi is likely to counter any ideas of an imminent and rapid path towards ending QE, instead urging patience with the still-subdued inflation outlook.

Frontrunning: July 19

  • Republicans consider bipartisan healthcare talks (Reuters)
  • Health Care Collapse Could Leave Trump Winless in His First Year (BBG)
  • Republicans to Push Ahead on Repeal of Affordable Care Act (WSJ)
  • Obscure Coal CEO Rains Money on Trump While Outflanking Rivals (BBG)
  • GOP Tries to Regroup on Obamacare Repeal as Trump Lashes Out (BBG)

Global Stocks Hit Record High, Set For Longest Winning Streak Since 2015

With the USD just off 10-month lows, there continues to be an easing of loosening of financial conditions for emerging markets which also supports equities. After decent gains in Asia on the back of positive signs from China this week, MSCI's world stocks index looked set for a ninth day of gains which would mark its longest winning streak since October 2015.

Qatar, Saudi Arabia To Islamize One Of Europe's Greatest Cathedrals

In Islamic symbolism, Córdoba is the lost Caliphate. Political authorities in Córdoba dealt a blow to the Catholic Church's claim of ownership of cathedral by declaring that "religious consecration is not the way to acquire property". The Catholic Church has taken a position. As the Bishop of Córdoba, Demetrio Fernandez, said, "sharing the space with Muslims would be like a man sharing his wife with another man".

WTI Sinks After Surprise Crude Inventory Build

WTI has roller-coastered higher since last week's 'bullish' API report and rose today for the 6th of the last 7 days (on Saudi cut hype). While many eyes are on record high shale production, the recent trend in inventory draws remains key but API upset that dream briefly as Crude saw an unexpected build (+1.628mm vs -3.5mm exp). Gasoline and Distillates saw major draws (much bigger than expected) and Cushing saw its first build in 8 weeks.

"Willful Blindness"

"...analysts are once again hoping for a “hockey stick” recovery in earnings in the months ahead... few, if any, Wall Street analysts expecting a recession at any point the future...because optimistic analysis supports our underlying psychological “greed”, all real scrutiny to the contrary tends to be dismissed. Unfortunately, it is this “willful blindness” that eventually leads to a dislocation in the markets."