Crude

S&P Futures, Dollar Rise As World Awaits Trump Inauguration Speech

"All eyes will be on the content and style of Trump's inauguration speech," Morgan Stanley's Hans Redeker wrote in a note.  "The more 'Presidential' this speech comes across, the better the outcome for markets." And as BonY added, "If Trump ramps up the rhetoric the market will be concerned about building long dollar positions."

Oil Tumbles After Unexpected Crude Inventory Build

A mixed bag of crude draw and gasoline builds from API combined with IEA comments on rising US Shale output offset by Saudi jawboning about more production cuts possible has pushedoil green before today's DOE data. However, oil prices tumbled when DOE printed an unexpected 2.347mm barrel crude build (1mm draw expected) and another major build in gasoline inventories. US crude production remains at 9-month highs.

Global Stocks Dip; Bond Yields, Dollar Rise After Yellen's Rate Guidance; All Eyes On Draghi

European and Asian shares, and S&P futures slipped, while government bond yields jumped to multi-week highs on Thursday after Yellen's hawkish speech. Oil rose after API reported a drop in crude inventories. The euro rebounded as investors look to Mario Draghi to address rising European inflation that make the ECB's stimulative policies look increasingly out of sync.

Oil Unsure As Huge Gasoline Inventory Build Offsets Crude Draw

Following last week's surge in crude and product inventories, API reported a much bigger than expected drawdown in crude inventories ( versus -1mm expectations). While this spiked WTO prices, they fell back amid massive builds in gasoline (9.75mm) and distillates.

"Everything Is A Partial Reversal Of Yesterday" - Stocks, Dollar Rebound Following Trump Scare

European shares decline led by a plunge in Pearson shares, S&P futures were modestly in the green as Asian and EM stocks gained. The dollar rebounded against most major currencies after retreating 1.3% on Tuesday to the lowest in a month following Trump's "strong dollar" comments and halted a seven-day drop against the yen. "Everything is just a partial reversal of the price action yesterday," RBC Capital Markets currency strategist Adam Cole said.

RBC: "Commence Pain Trade"

Commence 'pain trade.' Expect there to be significant buy-side performance pain today with regards to the below key “long USD”-linked “US reflation” trades (as quoted above) seeing real capitulatory / unwind flows.

IMF Downplays Trump Stimulus Effect; Slashes Saudi, Mexico Growth In Latest World Economic Outlook

As the world's elite gather in Davos to decide for the minions what the world should look like, The IMF has taken a far dimmer view of global (and by that we mean Trumpian) economic growth than markets appear to be. In addition to slashing Brazilian, Mexican, and Saudi Arabian economic growth forecasts, Lagarde's lackeys are taking a cautious stance toward the policies of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who takes office this week, assuming only a modest boost to the U.S. economy from his promise of fiscal stimulus.

Oil Slides After Saudis Suggest Early End To OPEC Deal

Following a brief spike overnight (as China intervened in its equity market), crude prices slipped lower, testing towards a $51 handle after Saudi Arabia says OPEC is on track to wrap up its production curbs by the middle of the year, potentially leaving its aim of clearing a global oil glut unfinished.

The US Economy: Back On Track?

The weekly rail traffic report published by the Association of American Railroads provides a great snapshot of US economic activity almost in real (weekly) time. Last July we noted that we were starting to witness some signals of a trend change, now suggesting a softening. But much has happened since then, including a broadly unexpected change in the political direction of the US. Have those signals been reversed as a result?