• Monetary Metals
    08/03/2015 - 04:03
    You cannot understand gold if you think it goes up and down, that the dollar is the measure of gold. Gold does not necessarily go up with interest, inflation, or commodities. Indeed, it does not...
  • Tim Knight from...
    08/03/2015 - 00:54
    Could you imagine making a sweeping prediction about the world's construct in the year 2120 and being more or less correct?

Crude

Tyler Durden's picture

WTI Crude Crashes To $45 Handle - Lowest Since March





Spending and Income data appears to have been the trigger sending WTI and Brent crude prices dramatically lower. WTI has now broken to a $45 handle, its lowest since mid-March..

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Chinese Stocks Slide Again, Copper Tumbles To 6 Year Low; Greek Market Crashes After One Month Trading Halt





If China had hoped it would root out intervention by eliminating Citadel's rigging algos, and unleash a buying spree it was wrong: the Shanghai Composite opened negative, and never managed to cross into the green, despite the usual last hour push higher, ending down -1.1% and down for 6 of the past 7 days. The real action, however, was not in Asia but in Europe, and specifically Greece, where the stock market finally reopened after a 1+ month "capital control" hiatus. Despite the attempt to micro manage the reopening, the result was not pretty, with stocks crashing 23% at the open and staging barely a rebound trading -17% as of this moment, even as banks promptly traded down to the -30% limit as the realization that an equity-eviscerating recapitalization (or bail-in) is now inevitable.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Something Just Snapped: Container Freight Rates From Asia To Europe Crash 23% In One Week





It appears that the recent spike in shipping rates was analogous to the dead cat bounce in crude oil prices: a speculator-driven anticipation for a sustainable rebound that never took place. And now, just like with crude prices, it is all crashing down.... again.  According to Reuters, shipping freight rates for transporting containers from ports in Asia to Northern Europe dropped 22.8 per cent to $400 per 20-foot container (TEU) in the week ended last Friday, data from the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index showed.

 
Marc To Market's picture

Near-Term Dollar Outlook





Regardless of where one thinks the dollar is going in the long-term, here is a discussion of where it will likely go in the short-term.  

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Crude Tumbles Near $46 Handle As US Oil Rig Count Rises For 2nd Week





After last week's surge in total rig count, this week saw a modest 2 rig drop to 874 total rigs. However, oil rigs rose once again - up 5 to 664 rigs. This is the highest since May 8th. The last 5 weeks have seen a 36 rig rise - the biggest such rise since April 2014. WTI Crude prices are reacting negatively to this news.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The 2015 Untrustworthies Report - Why Social Security Could Be Bankrupt In 12 Years





The so-called “trustees” of the social security system issued their annual report last week and the stenographers of the financial press dutifully reported that the day of reckoning when the trust funds run dry has been put off another year - until 2034. So take a breath and kick the can. That’s five Presidential elections away!

...Except that is not what the report really says.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Chinese Stocks Drop, End Worst Month Since August 2009; US Equity Futures Flat





In a repeat of Thursday's action, Chinese stocks which had opened about 1% lower, remained underwater for most of the session before attempting a feeble bounce which took the Shanghai Composite fractionally into the green, before the now traditional last hour action which this time failed to maintain the upward momentum and the last day of the month saw a surge in volume which dragged the market to its lows before closing roughly where it opened, -1.13% lower.  This caps the worst month for Chinese stocks since since August 2009, as the government struggles to rekindle investor interest amid a $3.5 trillion rout, one which has sent the Shanghai market lower by 15% - the biggest loss among 93 global benchmark gauges tracked by Bloomberg.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Does This Look Like An Accidental Relationship To You?





Monetary policy divergence manifests itself first in currencies, because currencies aren’t an asset class at all, but a political construction that represents and symbolizes monetary policy. Then the divergence manifests itself in those asset classes, like commodities, that have no internal dynamics or cash flows and are thus only slightly removed in their construction and meaning from however they’re priced in this currency or that. From there the divergence spreads like a cancer (or like a cure for cancer, depending on your perspective) into commodity-sensitive real-world companies and national economies. Eventually – and this is the Big Point – the divergence spreads into everything, everywhere.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"Why Commodities Defaults Could Spread", UBS Explains





"In the wake of the commodity price swoon one of the recurring questions is will the stress in commodity markets spillover to other sectors?," UBS asks. Spoiler alert: the answer is "yes."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Energy Layoffs Resume: Shell Fires 6,500, Whiting Cuts 2015 Budget 2 Weeks After Raising It





Yesterday it was US and Italian energy giants Chevron and Saipem which announced a total of over 10,000 new job cuts in the aftermath of oil sliding back under $50 and resuming its downward trend. Today, we got more confirmation of this when Royal Dutch Shell, still basking in the glow of its proposed $70 billion mega-acquisition of BG Group, announced it would axe 6,500 jobs this year and step up spending cuts, responding to an extended period of lower oil prices which contributed to a 37 percent drop in the oil and gas group's second-quarter profits.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Chinese Stocks Tumble In Close Of Trading "Causing Panic", US GDP To Be Revised Higher On Seasonal Adjustments





We start off the overnight wrap up with the usual place, China, where in a mirror image of Wednesday's action, stocks once again started off uneventful, then gradually rose in the afternoon session and meandered near unchanged territory until the last half hour, when out of the blue they tumbled to close near the day's low, some 2.2% below yesterday's closing level.  What caused it?  One possible catalyst came from Reuters which reported that that Chinese banks were investigating their exposure to the stock market via wealth management products and loans backed by stock as collateral. 

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Top Factors Undermining Any Oil Price Recovery





Global oil prices have returned to a state of flux. This is hardly news to any who follow the oil markets closely and yet prices continue to drive international headlines. While oil prices are notoriously difficult to predict, it has failed to deter the speculators. There are those warning that the latest dip is a precursor for $40 a barrel, a catastrophe for oil markets in some minds. On the other end of the spectrum are the optimists betting on a return to $100 by 2020. The World Bank has taken a typically middle-of-the-road approach, with forecasts of $57 a barrel in 2015. That said, given Iran’s potential revitalization, Russia’s murky outlook, and U.S. shale supply limits uncertain, prices will be responsive to supply and demand trends; at least in the short to medium term.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Crude Surges After Surprise Inventory Draw, Biggest Production Decline Since 2013





Total US crude production slumped over 1.5% last week - the biggest decline since October 2013. Add to that a considerable inventory draw of over 4.2mm barrels (against expectations of a build)... and crude prices are surging.

 
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