In a deja-vu-all-over-again echo of last week, API reported a huge 7.3 million barrel drawdown in oil inventories this week (against expectations of a build) and sparked a headline-driven jerk higher in crude prices. Last week the same happened and the next day DOE reported a huge build (consensus for tomorrow is a 345k draw), crushing oil prices... Trade Accordingly...
Every Federal Reserve Chair since 1979 has faced a notable challenge in the first 12-20 months of their tenure – something akin to capital markets “Bullies” hazing the new kid at school. Paul Volcker had the 1979-1980 Iranian oil shock/recession, Alan Greenspan the 1987 Stock Market Crash, and Ben Bernanke the 2007 Financial Crisis. Their responses shaped market perceptions about Federal Reserve priorities and set the stage for the remainder of their tenures, from Inflation-Fighting Volcker to Save-the-World Bernanke. Now, it is Chair Yellen’s turn...
While the "hedge fund" hotel strategy works on the way up, when everyone makes roughly the same profits, it is on the way down when these hedge fund hotels become "Hotel California" - hedge funds can check out, and sometimes they can even leave... with massive losses. According to a Bloomberg analysis, many of these hedge fund hotel stocks, or companies where hedge funds hold a combined stake of at least 25%, suffered declines of as much as 42 percent in the recent stock market rout.
Markets are writing a new storyline...
"... others took us to task a great deal more disconcertingly, calling upon us to close our business; to take up another vocation; to stop making “calls” and as one “pundit” rather comically suggested we should go have sexual relations with our self."
- China’s Central Bank Cuts Interest Rates (WSJ)
- Chinese Stocks Crash Again to Extend Biggest Plunge Since 1996 (BBG)
- China cuts rates, reserve ratio to aid economy as stocks sink (Reuters)
- Wall St. suffers worst day in four years, S&P confirms correction (Reuters)
- Europe's Stocks Head for Best Day Since 2011 (BBG)
- Market turmoil clouds Fed rate outlook (FT)
- For All Its Heft, China’s Economy Is a Black Box (WSJ)
The PBOC cut itself was not surprising, considering the PBOC now has to juggle and micromanage every aspect of the economy, from its sliding currency, to the bursting stock bubble, to record capital outflow, to soaring real interest rates, to the slowing economy. In fact, bulls around the globe will welcome the latest central bank bailout. Which also happens to be the worst aspect of today's intervention, because one can once again toss all the talk that China would finally stop intervening in asset pricing, with today's decision merely perpetuating the market's reliance on central banks. As a reference, this was the second time China cut both RRR and interest rates in 2 months: the last time it did so was during the depths of the financial crisis.
Chinese Stocks Are Crashing; Yuan Devalues, Deposit Rate Spikes To Record High, Japan Denies "G7 Response" PlannedSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 08/24/2015 21:21 -0400
The Carnage continues in China (and across AsiaPac) as Japan propagandizes and China throws more kitchen sinks at the market to stop the malicious sellers...
News That Matters
It might be time for sellside FX strategists to reconsider their position that the Saudi currency regime isn’t likely to change anytime soon...
On the heels of China's "failure" to send the PBoC to the rescue with an RRR cut over the weekend, battered EM assets were hit hard again on Monday as stocks, bonds, and currencies all went into panic mode as the global meltdown gathers pace.
And News That Matters
"We should all be in “survival mode” today; there is no reason to take action of any sort other than to raise liquidity where necessary in order to survive the present chaotic situation. Survival is all that matters. All else is secondary, even if that means surviving with far less liquidity than one had only mid-week last week. This is time for retaining what liquidity we can muster; this is not a time for courage. Get smaller; get liquid and get safe. This is getting ugly and we can only hope it does not get worse."
RANsquawk Week Ahead - 24th August: Black Monday sees weakness in equities throughout Asia and Europe, as well as filtering through to commodities and USDSubmitted by RANSquawk Video on 08/24/2015 07:21 -0400
- Risk averse sentiment dominated the price action overnight, with Chinese equities (Shanghai Comp -8.5%) again under heavy selling pressure as market participants were left disappointed by the lack of action by the PBOC to ease monetary conditions further.
- US data is set to remain in focus as participants continue to try to gauge the possibility of a September rate lift off after last week’s Fed’s minutes highlighted concerns over China
- This week sees the first preliminary August CPI readings in Europe from both Germany and Spain