Crude

Futures Rise As Fed Fears Subside; Global Stocks Rebound From Six Week Lows

It will be fitting, not to mention symmetric, if stocks which yesterday closed at 7 weeks lows and red for the year, end the week the same way they started it: with a rally on no news, just more hopes that oil (which as recently as two years ago none other than Chair Yellen said said would be be "unambiguously good" if lower) will continue rising. While US markets ended yesterday's trading on a sour note, that weakness has failed to spread to the rest of the world, and global shares rebounded from a six-week low as crude and commodity prices recovered, while the yen weakened on reduced demand for haven assets.

Global Stocks Slide, S&P Set To Open Red For The Year As Hawkish Fed Ignites "Risk Off"

After yesterday's algo-driven mad dash to close the S&P green both for the day and for the year following Fed minutes that came in shocking hawkish, the selling has continued overnight, led by the commodity complex as rate hike fears have pushed oil back down some 2% from yesterday's 7 month highs, which in turn has dragged global stocks lower to a six-week low, while pushing bond yields higher across developed nations as the market suddenly reprices the probability of a June/July rate hike.

Crude Dumps, Pumps, & Slumps As Unexpected Inventory Build Offsets Production Cut

Following API's smaller than expected draw overnight, DOE data showed an unexpedted 1.31m barrel build (3.5m draw expectations). This was offset by considerably bigger than expected draws in Gasoline and Distillates and Cushing oinventories rose less than expected. Crude production also fell once again, to its lowest since Sept 2014. The initial kneejerk was a mini-flash-crash in crude prices.. but that was rapidly bid back to unch...

The Chart That Will Make Every American Driver Angry

When crude oil prices started to collapse, the great American unwashed were told - day after day - that low oil prices were "unequivocally good" for them. That myth was destroyed as rent, healthcare, and debt-reduction trumped consumer gains. However, as angry Americans are seeing every day now, gas prices at their local pump have been soaring... having never dropped as they should. In fact, as the following anger-inducing chart below exposes, gas prices for the average joe are almost 50% higher than would be expected given the low oil prices...

Copper Slides To Three Month Low Despite Flat Futures, Oil; Dollar Rise Continues

After two violently volatile days in which the market soared (Monday) then promptly retraced all gains (Tuesday), the overnight session has been relatively calm with futures and oil both unchanged even as the BBG dollar index rose to the highest level since April 4. This took place despite a substantial amount of macro data from both Japan, where the GDP came well above the expected 0.3%, instead printing 1.7% annualized, which pushed stocks lower as it meant the probability of more BOJ interventions or a delay of the sales tax hike both dropped. Meanwhile, in China we got proof of the ongoing housing bubble when new property prices were reproted to have soared 12.4% Y/Y in April, which in turn pushed the local stock market to two month lows amid concerns the rampant housing bubble sector could divert funds from stocks. Yes, China is trading on the "risk" one bubble will burst another bubble.

Crude Slides After Oil Inventories Drawdown Less Than Expected

Following last week's chaotic Genscape build (and warning), API build, but DOE draw, and subsequent face-ripping rally, tonight's API data signaled a lower than expected draw and sparked further chaos in prices as they jerked higher ("it's a draw") only to slide on missed expectations. Having reached 7-month highs during the day session, the 1.1mm barrel drawdown missed expectations of a 3.5mm draw dramatically and sparked selling pressure. However, a smaller than expected build at Cushing stalled the weakness along with notably large drawdowns in Gasoline and Distillates.

This Is Goldman's Primer On The Most Critical Crude Oil Prices

While we are not sure if the market has finally had time to actually read Goldman's oil note from Sunday night (posted here at the same time) and understand that far from bullish Goldman actually warned that the market rebalancing is taking far longer and as a result is lowering its 2017 price targets, there was one additional curious highlight in the report: Goldman's breakdown of critical prices bands for oil which actually is a useful guide for how the broader market (if devoid of momentum-chasing algo traders) would respond with oil trading in any given price interval

Futures Fizzle After Oil Fades Bounce Above $48

It has been more of the same overnight, as global stocks piggybacked on the strong US close and rose despite the lack of good (or bad) macro news, propelled higher by the two usual suspects: a higher USDJPY and a even higher oil, if mostly early on in the trading session.

Falling Chinese Demand Could Intensify The Oil War

The days of global reliance on Chinese demand are soon coming to end as seen by the decline in growth rate, decline in imports, and increase in service sector strength. The implications have already been great as stock markets across the developed world fell into peril when China's GDP growth rate fell below 7 percent. Withdrawal symptoms may last for a while until a recovery in demand alleviates some pressure. But global financial markets will have to adjust to a developed China, and as this "new normal" sets in, it will mean softer demand for commodities. China’s slowing demand for oil will lead to heightened competition for suppliers. For now, it appears that OPEC’s loss is Russia’s gain.

Oil Driller Hedges Soar To Five Year Highs

Oil producers and merchants increased their short position in WTI by 3.8% for the week ended May 10 to the highest since September 2011. As BLoomberg writes, "oil producers are taking advantage of the rebound in crude markets to lock in protection against another slump."  Energy companies from EOG Resources Corp. to Chesapeake Energy Corp. used financial instruments such as futures, swaps and collars to guard against another fall in prices. West Texas Intermediate oil, the benchmark U.S. crude, has gained more than 75 percent since hitting a 12-year low in mid-February.