Crude

The Era Of The Rock-Star Central Banker Is Far From Over

Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan were the Elvis and Beatles of this movement – the first to see widespread fame for their efforts. Then came Ben Bernanke, perhaps the Jimi Hendrix or Led Zeppelin of his day, taking existing tools and pushing them in new, previously unconsidered, directions.  Now, we have Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi, whose legacies are as yet undefined. They may end up like the next generation of rock stars from the 1970s – something like Bruce Springsteen, with a deep focus on common people in his music. Or, they could be the Bee Gees, who focused simply on commercial success. Only time will tell.

"Is The Bottom In For Crude?" Redux - Current WTI Contract Crashes To 2015 Lows

77% of CNBC viewers believed "the bottom was in" on June 4th 2015 (with crude having rallied in the few days up to the survey to over $63). It appears things did not work out as the 'smart money' expected. The current front-month (Jan 2016) WTI is now tradingh at $38.25... well below the August cycle lows and back to the lowest since 2009...

Is OPEC Losing Influence?

While countless overzealous obituaries have been written about OPEC’s vanishing influence, OPEC is indeed acknowledging that it cannot influence prices to the degree that it once could. However, the result at least shows that OPEC is going to see its current strategy through to its logical conclusion, to the chagrin of most of its members.

Crude Carnage Continues - WTI Tumbles To $38 Handle

Following Friday's plunge after OPEC "held" steady, confirming the strategy of crushing US Shale is here to stay, WTI Crude has continued its carnage and is back to a $38 handle for the first time since the August-month-end meltup... very close once again to cycle lows.

European, Asian Stocks Jump As Iron Ore Joins Oil Below $40 For First Time Since May 2009

With Draghi's Friday comments, which as we noted previously were meant solely to push markets higher, taking place after both Europe and Asia closed for the week, today has been a session of catch up for both Asian and Europe, with Japan and China up 1% and 0.3% respectively, and Europe surging 1.4%, pushing government bond yields lower as the dollar resumes its climb on expectations that Draghi will jawbone the European currency lower once more, which in turn forced Goldman to announce two hours ago that it is "scaling back our expectation for Euro downside."

The Problem With "Rules-Based" Monetary Policy

Monetary policy 'rules' are no more accurate at determining interest rates than meteorologists are at forecasting the weather. The only difference between the two is that weathermen are precise on occasion, whereas the federal funds rate under the Taylor Rule is, at best, less wrong. Setting the price of money and credit in the name of unleashing the economy’s supposed potential output is the equivalent of enacting price controls on milk to unlock its full buying power. It’s a fallacy that cannot be achieved. The sooner the Fed pawns off its printing press, the sooner its market distortions will be lifted; and the sooner that each individual will be able to make rational decisions that make sense for not only himself or herself, but for the economy at large as well.

Putin Accuses US Of ISIS Oil Coverup

"When US officials say they don't see how the terrorists' oil is smuggled to Turkey... it smells badly of a desire to cover up these acts."

For Citi, This Is The "Greatest Event Risk" For Markets In 2016

"In the year ahead, geopolitics likely poses the greatest potential to disrupt markets in terms of event risk. There is also the potential for geopolitical risks to intersect with economic fragility in the event of a downturn, amplifying both."