Crude

Morgan Stanley Says The Oil Squeeze Will End On August 17: Here's Why

"A large option position and delta hedging left the market vulnerable to a rally. Thus, bullish comments from OPEC and the IEA caught the market uniquely offside to reverse bearish positioning (see detail and calcs inside). Yet, once option expiry passes on Aug 17th, this issue should fade. Moreover, this move higher also brought in bullish buying from those who believe the worst is past, and the call skew is now shifted bullish for Sep."

Global Stocks Rise, US Futures Near All Time Highs As Flood Into Emerging Markets Continues

European shares advanced, with gains in automakers  helping Germany’s benchmark DAX Index turn positive for the year for the first time. Stocks rose around the world, led by emerging-markets, as oil climbed further after its best week since April and traders pushed back bets on higher U.S. interest rates. S&P futures advance and Asian stocks little changed as rising oil prices bolstered investor sentiment.

Currency Wars Escalate As Fed Treasuries In Custody Tumble To 2012 Lows

The latest custody data from the Fed shows that reserve manager holdings of Treasuries has tumbled by $17 billion in the past week, to the lowest effective level since late 2012. The prevailing hypothesis is that smaller central banks and reserve managers sell US paper to defend their currencies, while OPEC countries such as Saudi Arabia are quietly raising cash in an environment of low oil prices and acute budgetary tightness.

Funny Money Accounting - Why Social Security Will Be Bankrupt In 10 Years

In their most recent report, the so-called “trustees” of the social security system said that the trust fund’s near-term outlook had improved. So the stenographers of the financial press dutifully reported that the day of reckoning when the trust funds run dry has been put off another year - until 2034. The message was essentially take a breath and kick the can. That’s five Presidential elections away! Except that is not what the report really says...

Mexico's "Legendary" Oil Hedging Desk Is Quietly Preparing For The Next Plunge

While oil longs and Saudi Arabia are enjoying this week's latest, substantial short squeeze, prompted if not so much by the latest set of cheerful, if repetitve, IEA "rebalancing" forecasts, the fundamental reality as confirmed not only by a recent Morgan Stanley report which sees oil dropping to the mid-$30s, but also by the just released Baker Hughes oil rig count which reported a spike of 15 rigs in the past week, the most since 2015, suggests that there is more downside pressure in store for oil. Some are already actively hedging for just that.

Crude Spikes To 3-Week Highs After Biggest Surge In Open Interest In 10 Years

WTI is now up 14% from its lows last week, with Sept 2016 trading back above $44.50 at 3-week highs. Despite rising inventories (and record production levels in OPEC), the Saudi statement hope remains and prompted the biggest spike in WTI Open Interest since August 2006 yesterday! Of course, that is "probably nothing" but we suspect the last few days sudden spike in prices and aggregate positioning are a little excessive relative to any fundamentals.

Futures Rise, Global Stocks Flat After Ugly Chinese Economic Data

One day after all three US indexes hit record highs for the first time since December 31, 1999, US equity index futures, European stocks and Asian equities are little changed after the Nikkei jumped on the back of a Yen weakness, while China reported disappointing economic data and the PBOC suggested that the flood of new debt is slowing which pushed Chinese stocks higher by 1.6% on hopes of more stimulus.

What The Next Gold Confiscation Will Look Like (And How To Protect Yourself)

On April 5, 1933, under the pretext of a national emergency, President Franklin D. Roosevelt's government blatantly stole wealth from the American people. Many worry the U.S. government might confiscate gold again if it becomes desperate enough. Those fears are well-founded, as the U.S. government’s abysmal financial situation is only getting worse.

Iraq's Deal With Oil Majors Could Crush OPEC's Output Freeze Plans

Iraq and oil majors BP, Shell, and Lukoil have agreed to resume investments in oil fields the foreign groups are developing, which is expected to raise the country’s crude output by 250,000-350,000 barrels per day in 2017, Reuters reported on Thursday, quoting Iraqi officials - a move that has the potential to aggravate the supply glut and muddy the waters of the additional OPEC meeting in September, which some were glass-half-fulling might end with a production cap of some sort.

Thursday Humor: Crude Oil Futures

Forget facts (Saudi output at record high), F##k fundamentals (global growth slowing, global glut rising)... just set the algos to buy on every OPEC headline...

Oil Tops $42 As OPEC Headlines Seek To Start Another Short Squeeze

Having plunged yesterday on 'real' excess supply data, WTI crude is rallying this morning - back above $42, NYMEX close dump levels - on the heels of the latest OPEC/NOPEC headline farce on output freezes (the day after Saudis announce record output!!)...

US Futures Rebound, European Stocks Higher As Oil Rises

The summer doldrums continue with another listless overnight session, not helpd by Japan markets which are closed for holiday, as Asian stocks fell fractionally, while European stocks rebounded as oil trimmed losses after the the IEA said pent-up demand would absorb record crude output (something they have said every single month). S&P futures have wiped out almost all of yesterday's losses and were up over 0.2% in early trading.