Crude

The Frogs Are Boiling Again - Why Wall Street Stays In The Pot

Wall Street’s cockeyed faith that another stock market bailout is on the way rests on the idea of a post-election return to fiscal stimulus - since even the casino punters now see that the jig is up on ZIRP, NIRP and QE. Here’s the problem. When General (Paul) Ryan gets together in the oval office with either Hillbama or the Donald next February the budget projections will already be deep in trillion dollar deficits under current policy. Therefore what will get stimulated, if anything, is a colossal political firestorm over who bankrupted the nation. There will not be another fiscal stimulus this go round. This time the frogs of Wall Street will be left to boil.

WTI Crude Tops $47 To 6-Month Highs After IEA Forecast

Following IEA's report this morning which proclaimed OPEC production at record highs but forecast a drop in the global oil glut in the first half of the year (due to demand from India, as the current marginal demand driver - China's teapot refiners - have since slowed dramatically), WTI crude prices have jumped back above $47 for the first time since November 2015. It seems, however, tha traders did not read the sedtion that said, further gains in oil prices “are likely to be limited by brimming crude and products stocks.”

Futures Halt Selloff, Levitate Higher On Another USDJPY Spike; Oil Rises

If yesterday's selloff had a specific catalyst, namely some of the worst consumer retail earnings seen in years, it merely undid the Tuesday rally which levitated global risk with no fundamental driver, aside for a 200 pip spike in the USDJPY.  Some central bankers may even say it was a "magical" levitation. Fast forward to the overnight session when following a muted Asian session, it was once again up to the "magical" USDJPY to send stocks well into the green without any actual catalyst whatsoever, but what merely appears to have been another "magical" intervention session by the BOJ.

Oil Spikes After DOE Reports Huge Inventory Draw, Production Drop

Following Genscape and API's 1.4mm barrel build estimates at Cushing, DOE confirmed a 1.52mm build. However, API's 3.45mm build overnight was shockingly opposed by DOE's 3.41mm inventory draw - the 3rd biggest weekly draw of the year (as we suspect Canadian issues are impacting levels). Gasoline also saw an unexpected draw and Distillates drew down. Following last week's big production drop (Alaska), US crude production fell once again - for the 16th week in a row. This combination of a surprise draw and lower production shocked prices of WTI above $45.50

Gartman: "We Have Suffered One Of Our Worst Days Of The Year"

"Share prices have risen nearly universally higher as nine of the ten markets comprising our Internaitonal Index have risen, and only the market in Hong Kong has fallen, and even then it has fallen by the barest of margins. As a result, we have suffered one of our worst days of the year in our retirement funds, losing a bit more than 1% as we came into the markets with a modestly bearish point of view and were therefore modestly net short of the equity market."

US Futures, European Stocks Drop As USDJPY Tumbles

One day after the biggest jump in stocks in two months on what has still been an undetermined catalyst, overnight global equities did a U-turn with European stocks falling toward a one-month low and U.S. stock index futures declining, as crude oil dropped toward $44 a barrel. A driver the move lower was a sharp reversal in the USDJPY which dropped 100 pips from yesterday's highs which took places just as Goldman predicted the USDJPY has finally bottomed, facilitated by a weaker dollar (also following a Goldman report yesterday forecasting the USD was about to surge).

Oil Slides After Crude Inventory Surges Most In A Month

Following Genscape's 1.4mm build estimate at Cushing, and expectations of a 1.1mm build, API reported a 1.46mm build. Chatter across trading desks was that API data had been leaked and that is what drove oil prices higher (after their Genscape-driven dump) which proved 100% incorrect as total crude inventories soared a shocking 3.5mm barrels (against expectations of no change) - the most in 5 weeks. Gaosline built less than expected and Distillates saw a draw but the damage was done and prices of WTI started to give back the days gains.

Oil Jumps Despite Saudi Plans For "Significant Output Growth"; Kuwait Unveils Plans For Record Production Surge

Two stories that oil traders are ignoring in today's action is the latest out of Saudi Arabia where Saudi Aramco, the state oil company, announced it was raising production to capture more customers as it pushes ahead with what could be the world’s biggest stock market listing next year the FT reported earlier. Additionally, Kuwait's head of research at state-owned Kuwait Petroleum said the country aims to produc a record 4 million a barrels a day by 2020, a major increase of nearly 50% compared to its recent 2.8mmbpd output recorded in March.

Global Stocks Jump; Oil Rises As Yen Plunges After Another Japanese FX Intervention Threat

In what has been an approximate repeat of the Monday overnight session, global stocks and US futures rose around the world as oil prices climbed toward $44 a barrel, with risk-sentiment pushed higher by another plunge in the Yen which has now soared 300 pips since the Friday post-payroll kneejerk reaction, and was trading above 109.20 this morning. At the same time base metals regained some of Monday’s steep losses following Chinese CPI data that came in line while PPI declined for 50 consecutive months however showed a modest rebound from the prior month on the back of China's recent, and now burst, speculative commodity bubble.

WTI Crude Tumbles To $43 Handle After Large Cushing Build

On the heels of downward price momentum from positive headlines out of Alberta with regard the wildfires, Genscape has just reported a forecast 1.4 million barrel build at Cushing - significantly above expectations and recent activity. This has pushed WTI crude further below the pre-Saudi oil minister levels and back to a $43 handle...

Finally Good News For Canada's Raging Wildfire: Rain, Wind Conditions Push Blaze Away From Oil Sands

Cooler weather on Monday will help in firefighters  battle to get the Alberta wildfire under control. The fire, which has destroyed about 620 square miles and has been nicknamed "The Beast", has been burning since May 1 and now has more than 100 water-dropping helicopters flying over it. After expecting the fire to double in size over the weekend, light rains and cooler temperatures helped prevent that from happening. "This is great firefighting weather, we can really get in here and get a handle on this fire, and really get a death grip on it," said Alberta fire official Chad Morrison on Sunday.