Crude

Presenting BofA's "Number One Black Swan Event For The Global Oil Market In 2016"

"Can the government maintain this strategy of flooding the oil market? In our view, it is unlikely that Saudi leaders would want to exacerbate its ongoing reserve drain by pushing prices below $40/bbl. After all, pressure will quickly build on the riyal’s 30 year peg to the USD if Brent crude oil prices keep falling."

WTI Crude Spikes After Renewed Tumble In US Oil Rig Count

Between contract roll liquidity and a renewed tumble in the US Oil Rig Count, WTI Crude (Jan 16) has surged above $42.50 (Dec 15 to $41). After last week's very modest rise, the streak of rig count declines continues (11th week of last 12) with a 10 rig drop to 564 - the lowest since June 2010.

Three "Do You Believe In Crude Oil Miracles" Charts

It appears European and US oil & gas stock investors (and Dow Transports lovers) believe they know better than commodity traders when it comes to some kind of future reality in which miracles of growth can happen. The disconnect between European oil & gas stocks, US energy stocks, and Trannies relative to crude oil has never been bigger...

Gartman: "It Is Time To Sell Crude Oil Once Again"

"It is time to sell crude oil once again, and the risks are small while the potention seems large. Let’s sell a bit of both WTI and Brent crude, sufficient to be one unit in aggregate with nearby January WTI trading at or near to $41.85 and nearby Brent trading at or very near to $44.23."

Futures Rise, Global Stocks Set For Best Week In Six Unfazed By Terrorism Concerns

Futures are modestly higher in early trading having tracked the USDJPY once again almost tick for tick, with the carry trade of choice rising to 123 shortly after Mario Draghi's latest speech pushed the dollar strong initially only to see most gains promptly evaporate against both the Yen and the Euro. European shares are likewise little changed, after gaining earlier, while Asian stocks rise; oil also advanced in early trading only to drop to its lowest overnight level moments ago, a few dimes over $40, with aluminum and copper both posting modest increases.

The Most Important Question About ISIS That Nobody Is Asking

We wonder how long until someone finally asks the all important question regarding the Islamic State: who is the commodity trader breaching every known law of funding terrorism when buying ISIS crude, almost certainly with the tacit approval by various "western alliance" governments, and why is it that these governments have allowed said middleman to continue funding ISIS for as long as it has?

WTI Tumbles Back Below $40, Goldman Warns Risk Of "Sharp Leg Lower"

After an exuberantv-shaped recovery of hawkish fed minutes, WTI Crude (Dec contract) has tumbled back below $40 this morning following warnings from Goldmn Sachs of the potential for a "sharp leg lower" to $20 handle given expectations for warmer-than-normal weather this winter.

Goldman Releases Its Top 6 Trades For 2016... And The Three Biggest Risks

  1. Top Trade #1: Long USD vs short EUR and JPY
  2. Top Trade #2: Long US 10-year ‘Breakeven’ Inflation
  3. Top Trade #3: Long MXN and RUB versus short ZAR and CLP.
  4. Top Trade #4: Long EM ‘External Demand’ vs. Banks stocks
  5. Top Trade #5: Tighter Spread between Italy and Germany Long Rates
  6. Top Trade #6: Long large-cap US Banks relative to the overall S&P500

Global Markets Surge Overnight On Fed Minutes Optimism; ECB Minutes Set To Keep Rally Going

While it is still unclear just why the FOMC Minutes which are said to have made a December liftoff "more likely" unleashed a dramatic market rally, one which sent both stocks and TSYs higher, the sentiment continued overnight, with both Asian stocks surging on the US momentum, as well as Europe, where the DAX gapped solidly above the 200 DMA as most European shares advanced, led by resources, travel stocks. U.S. futures continue their ramp higher, and at last check were another 8 points, or 0.4%, in the green.  But if the Fed Minutes were enough to unleash the latest leg in this rally, than the ECB's own minutes due also today, should send futures back over 2100 without much difficult, regardless of their actual content.

Did Goldman Sachs Just Find The Smoking Gun In Today's FOMC Minutes?

The market's reaction to today's FOMC Minutes was, to some, a little odd given the "December is on" hawkish narrative being sold to the public. Stocks rallied, longer-dated bonds rallied, gold managed gains, and the US Dollar sold off... not exactly the reaction one would expect from a 'hawkish' Fed statement. But there is one thing that would explain those moves... and it appears Goldman Sachs found it buried deep inside the 12 pages of Minutes...