Crude

Why An OPEC Production Cap Is Unlikely

The initial reaction to the announcement of the September OPEC meeting is premature, however. There are several reasons why it is unlikely any action will be taken by OPEC at the meeting to restrain output. Nevertheless, continued speculation prior to the meeting in late September will likely hold oil prices above $40 per barrel for now.

Your Complete, Last Minute FOMC Minutes Preview, And How To Trade Them

Here are the key things the market will look for in today's FOMC minutes, made more interesting following yesterday's unscheduled, and substantially hawkish comments from Ny Fed's Bill Dudley. Also, for those looking to trade the minutes, here are some ideas on how the market may respond.

Gartman Is Shorting Bonds, Would "Err Bearishly Of Oil"

Over the last week, there has been little guidance from one of the market's most steadfast directional beacons, Dennis Gartman. Luckily, he provided some much needed insight into what asset classes may  not  do in the coming days, targeting not one but two key products: oil, where we would "err bearishly" and bonds, which he is now shorting.

European Stocks Drop, Futures Flat As Rising Dollar Pressures Oil, EMs: All Eyes On The Fed Minutes

European stocks are down led by tech, chemicals, alongside EM stocks which retreated from near a one-year high and oil fell for the first time in a week after hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials revived bets on U.S. interest rate rises this year, and pushed the dollar higher from 7 week lows ahead of today's Fed Minutes. S&P 500 futures were little changed following yesterday's drop from record highs

Turkish Turmoil: Let The Politics Begin

A month on from Turkey’s failed coup attempt, and you’ll find endless op-eds opining the supposed strategic implications of Erdogan’s rear-guard offensives. In a nutshell, it breaks down into four key arguments...

Crude Tumbles After Surprise Gasoline Inventory Build (Biggest In 6 Months)

With oil largely tracking the dollar as opposed to actual fundamentals - ignoring 3 weeks of crude builds at an odd seasonal time - the surprising build in gasoline inventories (after 2 big draws) seems to have woken some traders up. While crude and Cushing inventories fell, the combination of gasoline (biggest in 6 months) and distillates builds were significant. Oil prices had surged to one-month highs ahead of the API data but quickly dropped after the print.

Tumbling Dollar Sends USDJPY Under 100, Oil Over $46 As Gold Spikes; Futures Flat

Overnight, John Williams' latest uberdovish paper "Monetary Policy in a Low R-star World", which we profiled yesterday, and which suggests lower rates for far longer, made the rounds and has led to a steep 0.8% drop in the Bloomberg Dollar spot Index, which sank to its weakest since June while the yen strengthened 1.2 percent, slipping briefly below 100 against the greenback for the first time since June 24, pushing oil and gold higher, and Asian shares lower.

Morgan Stanley Says The Oil Squeeze Will End On August 17: Here's Why

"A large option position and delta hedging left the market vulnerable to a rally. Thus, bullish comments from OPEC and the IEA caught the market uniquely offside to reverse bearish positioning (see detail and calcs inside). Yet, once option expiry passes on Aug 17th, this issue should fade. Moreover, this move higher also brought in bullish buying from those who believe the worst is past, and the call skew is now shifted bullish for Sep."

Global Stocks Rise, US Futures Near All Time Highs As Flood Into Emerging Markets Continues

European shares advanced, with gains in automakers  helping Germany’s benchmark DAX Index turn positive for the year for the first time. Stocks rose around the world, led by emerging-markets, as oil climbed further after its best week since April and traders pushed back bets on higher U.S. interest rates. S&P futures advance and Asian stocks little changed as rising oil prices bolstered investor sentiment.