• Pivotfarm
    08/03/2015 - 15:25
    The quest for perfection is man’s unattainable goal. Man can never be perfect if we are to believe the English philosopher Thomas Hobbes. Man is man’s wolf and all of that.

Crude

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Producer Prices Surge Most In Over Four Years As BLS Discovers Food Inflation





And just like that, the BLS is reacquainted with soaring food prices. Moments ago the US government reported that producer prices, as part of a newly reindexed PPI series, spiked by 2.1% from a year ago, or a whopping 0.6% surge in April, the biggest monthly jump since January 2010, and up from the 0.5% increase in March. So what caused this surge in producer prices? Why food costs of course, which in April soared by 2.7%.

 
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Treasury Yields Tumble In Europe, US On ECB QE Disappointment





Overnight Europe got two mini lessons: i) that rumors spread by conflicted French banks about "imminent" ECB QE don't always, if ever, come true, after the ECB spent a decent portion of the overnight session explaining, via Reuters, that while the central bank would engage in "some stimulus for the euro zone economy but falls short of the large-scale effect the ECB could unleash with a major program of quantitative easing (QE) - money printing to buy assets. Such a QE plan is still some way off." Precisely as we warned. The other lesson is that when QE or even hopes of QE fade, bonds get bid due to rotation out of equities into "safe haven" assets. As a result, German Bund yields tumbled with stops taken out (and Goldman stopped out on their Bund short) through the 12 month lows of 1.4% with 10 Year yields following lower and dropping to 2.565% hours ago, or a level not seen since November 1.

 
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Frontrunning: May 13





  • EU Court: Google Must Remove Certain Links on Request (WSJ), people have right to be forgotten on Internet (Reuters)
  • Harsh weather: German Investor Confidence Drops for Fifth Straight Month (BBG)
  • More harsh weather: China Slowdown Deepens (BBG)
  • Harsh weather as far as the eye can see: China’s New Credit Declines (BBG)
  • "Alien" artist, surrealist H.R. Giger dies aged 74 (Reuters)
  • Pfizer urges AstraZeneca to talk as UK lawmakers slam offer (Reuters)
  • Property sector slowdown adds to China fears (FT)
  • Russia says EU sanctions will hurt Ukraine peace efforts (Reuters)
  • U.S. Considers Relaxing Crude Oil Export Restrictions (WSJ)
 
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German ZEW Crushed, China Missing Across The Board? Have No Fear - It's Tuesday





If, in the New Normal, newsflow and facts mattered, facts such as the German Zew Investor Expectations index crashing from 43.2 to 33.1, smashing expectations of a 40.0 print to the downside and down to the lowest since January 2013 nearly half the 7 year half reported as recently as December confirming Germany can no longer be Europe's growth dynamo courtesy of a still nosebleed high EURUSD, or facts such as overnight Chinese data missed in every category with industrial output up 8.7% y/y in April vs an estimated 8.9%, retail sales up 11.9% below the estimated 12.2% rise and ; Jan.-April fixed-asset investment growing 17.3% vs est. 17.7%, then futures may just posted a downtick. However, since it is a Tuesday, with a ~$1 billion POMO, one can ignore the fundamentals and proceed straight to buying anything and everything with indiscriminate abandon. The only question is whether the NY Fed orders Citadel to slam the VIX under 11 to start off the morning S&P rampage which should push the broad market index above Goldman's 1900 price target for the end of the 2014.

 
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GaveKal On The Recent Emerging Market Surge: "Little To Suggest Any Sustainable Economic Healing"





Is there anything fundamental to explain why the equity indices of the "Fragile Five" countries, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, India and Turkey, have regained their recent highs? According to GaveKal the answer is a resounding no: "As investors, we like equity rallies to be propelled by fundamental factors, like earnings re-ratings or growth surprises. But there is little behind this rally to suggest any sustainable economic healing." So what is pushing this particular subset of risk higher? Why the global liquidity tsunami of course.

 
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A Commodities Trading Titan Staffed With Former Goldman And JPM Employees Is Quietly Growing In Switzerland





If there was any confusion about what may be coming next, now that the bulk of the TBTFs are liquidating their commodities trading divisions having been caught manipulating virtually every physical asset under the sun (except for Goldman: the bank will first stage a mutiny at the Fed before it is forced to spin off its legendary J Aron commodity division which spawned such taxpayer generosity recipients as Gary Cohn and Lloyd Blankfein), the most recent events at Swiss commodities giant Mercuria should clarify "next steps." Because after Mercuria last month acquired JPMorgan's physical commodities trading business for $3.5 billion however without the scandal-plagued Blythe Masters, the Geneva commodities group needed someone to fill in the big enough shoes which may now belong to the world's largest, and very much still under the radar, physical commodities trader.  It picked Magid Shenouda, who was co-head of commodities for Goldman until the end of last year.

 
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US Futures Blast Out Of The Gate On More Empty Promises By The ECB





East Ukraine may be independent in a result which the Kremlin said it "respects" and hopes for a "civilized implementation" of the referendum results, and which assures further military escalation in the proxy war of east versus west, but stocks are happy to ignore it all again.  The reason: a positive close over in Asia (ex-Japan) after China’s State Council pledged to reform markets buoyed demand for risk, although it really is just a follow through to the furious VIX slam in the last hour of US Friday trading, which said otherwise, means buying of US equities was the reason to buy US equities. More importantly and adding to the early spoo euphoria were comments by ECB's Nowotny who said that interest rate cut alone would likely be too little to combat low inflation - suggesting a European QE is coming - also acted as a catalyst for the latest uptick in stocks: when trapped like the ECB and when "guiding" to future activity, if unable to actually execute it, may as well go all the way. End result, Spoos up nearly 0.5% because, well, others are buying spoos.

 
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Everything You Wanted To Know About Global Oil Fundamentals (But Were Afraid To Ask)





There's more than one oil price around the world and as the following comprehensive (but brief) overview from Morgan Stanley's Global Energy Teach In shows, crude oil pricing across the world is dynamic and multi-factorial - from fundamental factors (such as simple supply and demand and seasonality) to macro factors (such as USD strength, macro sentiment, and "burden") and risk premia (e.g. geopolitics), the following provides everything you wanted to know about global crude oil fundamentals, but were afraid to ask...

 
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Futures Fail To Ignite Overnight Ramp In Quiet Session





It has been a very quiet session so far, and despite the slow-mo levitation in the USDJPY, its impact on US equity futures has been minimal if not negative. In fact, following yesterday's latest late day tumble, which Goldman summarized as follows, "Equities tried and failed again to break 1885, it continues to be the level that we can’t escape"... it would appear we are increasingly changing the trading regime, and as Guy Haselmann explained simply, markets are slowly but surely coming to the realization that the Fed's crutches are being taken away (that they may well return following a 20%, 30%, or more drop in the S&P is a different matter entirely) and that the economy will not grow fast enough to make up for this. Perhaps the most notable "event" is the sheer avalanche of banks pushing up their forecasts for an ECB rate cut (and or QE start) to June following Draghi's yesterday comments. And so the 1 month countdown begins until the end of forward guidance, or until the ECB "shatters" its credibility as expained yesteday.

 
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"Capital" As Seen By An Austrian Economist





In recent weeks the concept of capital has been thoroughly, and incorrectly, deconstructed by Marxists and Keynesians alike now that, suddenly, the world caught up with what we said would be the crux issue back in 2011: record wealth inequality (who could have possibly foreseen it following $10 trillion in central bank balance sheet expansion in the last decade), and finding "fair" ways of confiscating the wealth of the rich to - at least on paper - help the poor even if in reality all it would do is simply lead to more government theft, embezzling, corruption, and capital misallocation. It is now time to get an Austrian perspective and courtesy of unrepentant "Austrian" Sean Corrigan we just got one.

 
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Frontrunning: May 8





  • China’s Trade Unexpectedly Rises (BBG)
  • 'We're already not in Ukraine' - rebel east readies secession vote (Reuters)
  • Pro-Russian Separatists in Ukraine Reject Putin's Call to Delay Vote (WSJ)
  • Vietnam’s Stocks Post Biggest Loss in Decade on China Tensions (BBG)
  • Hedge Funds Extend Their Slide (WSJ)
  • Carney Looks to Untested Tools as House Prices Boom (BBG)
  • New Draghi Era Seen on Hold at ECB as Euro Area Recovers (BBG)
  • Woman With Printer Shows the Digital Ease of Bogus Cash (BBG)
  • Regulators See Growing Financial Risks Outside Traditional Banks (WSJ)
 
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Futures Ignore Ukraine Re-Escalation, Hope For Positive Surprise From Draghi





Despite Mario Draghi and Janet Yellen's (repeat) attempt to steal the show today, the first when the ECB reports its monetary decision (with zero real chance of announcing any change in policy considering all the furious, and failed, attempts to jawbone the Euro lower) as it faces the dilemma of deflationary pressure, record low bond yields and interest rates at record lows coupled with an export crushing Euro just shy of 1.40, and a practical impossibility to conduct QE even as the hawks jawbone a "potential" European QE to death, while Janet Yellen conducts the second part of the congressional testimony this time before the Senate Budget Committee where she will again, say nothing at all, it appears the world will be focused on Russia once again after the latest 24 hour "de-escalation" gambit is now once again dead and buried and on top of it is Putin waving a "come launch a nuclear attack at me, bro" flag.

 
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Frontrunning: May 7





  • Alibaba files for what may be biggest tech IPO (Reuters)
  • Early Tap of 401(k) Replaces Homes as American Piggy Bank (BBG)
  • Developers Turn Former Office Buildings Into High-End Apartments (WSJ)
  • Thai court orders Yingluck Shinawatra to step down as PM (Guardian)
  • German industry orders fell 2.8% in March, the biggest drop in one and a half years (RTE)
  • Ukraine Bulls Scatter as Death Toll Mounts (BBG)
  • China Property Slump Adds Danger to Local Finances (BBG)
  • Stein Says Fed May See Bouts of Volatility as It Approaches Exit (BBG)
 
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It May Be Non-Tuesday, But The High Freaks Are Cautiously Optimistic





Perhaps the most important "news" of the day is that it is non-Tuesday. Yes, there was actual news news, like German factory orders dropping -2.8% on expectations of a 0.3% increase, French industrial production down -0.7% on expectations of a 0.3% increase (both misses driven by a soaring Euro which is now spitting distance away from the 1.40 ECB "redline"), the Nikkei tumbling 2.9% to just above 14000, the Shanghai Composite down 0.9%, SocGen Q1 profit plunging 13% and conveniently blaming it on Russia, speaking of Russia things continue to deteriorate even though Interfax reported that the country has received the first part, some $3.2 billion, of the promised IMF bailout - money which will be used to promptly pay Gazprom... and buy gold, a sudden conflict between China and Vietnam escalating over the placement of an offshore oil rig and so forth, but in the new normal, none of this matters.

 
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