European, Asian Stocks Jump As Iron Ore Joins Oil Below $40 For First Time Since May 2009

With Draghi's Friday comments, which as we noted previously were meant solely to push markets higher, taking place after both Europe and Asia closed for the week, today has been a session of catch up for both Asian and Europe, with Japan and China up 1% and 0.3% respectively, and Europe surging 1.4%, pushing government bond yields lower as the dollar resumes its climb on expectations that Draghi will jawbone the European currency lower once more, which in turn forced Goldman to announce two hours ago that it is "scaling back our expectation for Euro downside."

The Problem With "Rules-Based" Monetary Policy

Monetary policy 'rules' are no more accurate at determining interest rates than meteorologists are at forecasting the weather. The only difference between the two is that weathermen are precise on occasion, whereas the federal funds rate under the Taylor Rule is, at best, less wrong. Setting the price of money and credit in the name of unleashing the economy’s supposed potential output is the equivalent of enacting price controls on milk to unlock its full buying power. It’s a fallacy that cannot be achieved. The sooner the Fed pawns off its printing press, the sooner its market distortions will be lifted; and the sooner that each individual will be able to make rational decisions that make sense for not only himself or herself, but for the economy at large as well.

Putin Accuses US Of ISIS Oil Coverup

"When US officials say they don't see how the terrorists' oil is smuggled to Turkey... it smells badly of a desire to cover up these acts."

For Citi, This Is The "Greatest Event Risk" For Markets In 2016

"In the year ahead, geopolitics likely poses the greatest potential to disrupt markets in terms of event risk. There is also the potential for geopolitical risks to intersect with economic fragility in the event of a downturn, amplifying both."

Turkish Troops Said To Invade Iraq Near Mosul

CNN Turkey, citing security forces officials, is reporting what appears to be yet another escalation in the middle east maelstrom as Turkish troops enter Iraq. So suddenly, just as the world is scrutinizing Turkey's role in the Islamic State oil trade, Ankara decides to send anti-ISIS troops across the border? Are they trying to secure the crude trade and guard the trafficking routes?

Oil Unmoved As US Rig Count Tumbles To May 2010 Lows

For the 13th week of the last 14, US Oil rig counts declined. Down 10 to 545 rigs, this is the lowest since May 2010 as the temporary respite in the early Fall has given way to reality and rig counts track the lagged crude price lower...


"No Cut In Production" - OPEC Press Conference Begins (Finally) - Live Feed

OPEC HAS AGREED TO OIL OUTPUT POLICY ROLLOVER, SETS TARGET AT 31.5 M B/D AFTER INDONESIA JOINS: DELEGATE. This increases the output limit up from 30 million but is merely reflective of the current real output from the Cartel of 31.5 million barrels. And crude is crashing, Ruble is dumping and gold is jumping.

Frontrunning: December 4

  • The Jobs Report Probably Won't Change the Fed's Mind on Liftoff (BBG)
  • U.S. authorities look for militant links to shooters in California mass slaying (Reuters)
  • Neighbors, Acquaintances Shocked That Couple Are San Bernardino Shooting Suspects (WSJ)
  • ECB Fumbles the Stimulus-Baton Hand-off, Mussing Up Fed’s Plans (WSJ)
  • OPEC Heads for Status Quo as Members Clash Over Crude Output Cut (BBG)
  • Foreigners drawn in as fear and loathing grip China's finance industry (Reuters)

OPEC Meeting Preview: Confusion, Clashes, Disappointment, And Lower Oil Prices

"There has been a bunch of headlines coming out of OPEC with each contradicting the other," says Petromatrix analyst Olivier Jakob. “It is difficult to trade in front of OPEC - the general consensus is for nothing, but when we get a soundbite that creates a bit of a reaction." However, once the OPEC meeting announces that, sorry Venezuela but nothing changes, expect the early upward bias to crude prices to promptly reverse.

Futures Rebound On Hope Today's "Most Important Ever" Jobs Number Will Not "Draghi" The Market

Optimism in US equity futures appears to have returned, and as of this moment US equity futures are higher by 9 points to 2060 as the attention shifts to what, according to BofA, is truly the most important ever. It is unclear just how the algos would take a second consecutive major disappointment in a row: should today's NFP print be well below the 200,000 consensus, December rate hike odd will tumble and the EUR will surge even more after declining modestly from overnight highs just below 1.10, leading to even more losses in European equities and spilling over to the US.