Gartman, who correctly called the recent market melt up, has once again reverted to his immensely valuable - and reliable - old self of calling key market inversion points with a several hour/day advance notice.
The relentless risk rally which took the Dow above 21,000 and the S&P over 2,400, has taken a breather overnight, with S&P futures modestly lower tracking European stocks, while Asian stocks advanced on US momentum; late Wednesday comments by a unexpectedly hawkish Lael Braniard has pushed the dollar higher, pressuring oil lower.
"...the market is now in a longer-term battle between 'economic (data) escape velocity' against the prospects for 'financial tightening ahead of growth'... It will continue coming-back to 'soft data converting to hard'..."
After API's surprise gasoline build (sending RBOB prices lower), DOE reported a draw (though smaller than expected) but crude saw the 8th weekly build in a row - pushing US crude inventories to a new record high. Production continued to surge (above 9mm) to new cycle highs. As Bloomberg's Javier Blas notes, " I think we can conservatively say the rebalancing isn't happening -- or isn't happening as the bulls expected."
The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields jumped on Wednesday, while global stocks and S&P futures rose as investors gave generally favorable marks to President Donald Trump's first speech to Congress, while paying more attention to the sudden onslaught of Fed hawks who repriced March Fed hike odds from 50% to 80% in a single afternoon. Strong economic data from China and Europe helped propell global risk assets higher.
After a volatile day of White House rumors and denials, and OPEC headlines, WTI and RBOB ended the day lower ahead of tonight's API data which showed a slightly smaller than expected crude build (+2.5mm against expectations of +3mm). However RBOB prices tumbled after an unexpected build.
A double-whammy of bullish news hit WTI crude futures shortly after 1300ET today sending prices soaring. First, The White House denied earlier rumors on changes to the ethanol mandate; and then Reuters confirmed OPEC production cut compliance steady at 94%.
Canadian oil sands is struggling to remain competitive in a marketplace that has changed dramatically from three years ago. A glaring example of this problem came from ExxonMobil this week, which announced that it had removed 3.3 billion barrels of Canadian oil sands from its books.
In a quiet night for markets, in which the top highlight was the Oscar's historic peddling of best picture "fake news" and where "millions" of Academy members seemingly voted illegally, European stocks were little changed after a selloff that pushed them to a two-week low, while the MSCI Asia index fells as Japan’s Topix dropped for third day. S&P futures were unchanged.