Following OPEC’s decision not to cut production at its June 5, 2015 meeting in Vienna, oil prices should likely continue their descent that began in early May (Figure 1). Prices may fall into the $50+ per barrel range since there is no tangible reason for their rise from January’s $46 low.
Germany Enters Correction; EMs In Longest Losing Streak Since 1990 Routed By Turkey, Obama Turmoils DollarSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 06/08/2015 06:48 -0400
While there were key macroeconomic data out of Asia earlier in the session, with Japan revising its Q1 GDP up from 2.4% to 3.9% (due to an upward revision to capex) making some wonder if it simply didn't snow in Japan this winter, as well as Chinese trade data that was once again disappointing with the third consecutive drop in exports coupled with an 18.1% collapse in imports hinting that nothing is going well in China's economy (which once again sent stocks soaring this time up another 2.2% on certainty another PBOC rate cut is imminent, pushing the PBOC to a fresh 7-year high of 5,132), it was actually a leaked Obama comment on the strong USD that moved markets.
Grit your teeth if you have to. Cry if you want to. US labor market is improving and the dollar is strengthening.
All key asset classes are at or near a key inflection point: either yields breach through resistance levels and send risk lower across the board over inflation fears, or bond volatility comes crashing down and allowing the "wealth effect" stock rally to continue.
When the "better than expected" jobs data came in, equity futures (alongside crude, precious metals, and bunds) promptly tumbled on fears the Fed rate hike, which many had expected would take place in September was pushed forward to July, or even the current month. However, starting with the market open, the E-mini has seen a relentless bid higher, and as of moments ago, it finally ticked into the green, covering nearly 17 points from the lows in less than an hour.
Despite the rise in the unemployment rate - which by now become nothing more than a joke - the jobs report (at the headline level) was too good for the bulls demding moar for longer. The kneejerk reaction was a selloff in bonds, commodities, and stocks as the dollar surged amid rate hike delay hopes. As time passed stocks bounced back a little but bond yields and the dollar continue to press notably higher and crude has given up all its OPEC gains.
When OPEC did not cut production last November, the oil market collapsed in shock and awe that the cartel would not just give in and allow non-OPEC members to walk away with market share. Today, in Vienna, "exactly as expected," OPEC once again confirmed production will remasin at 30 million barrels per day in the face of the global oil glut and prices for WTI and Brent have jumped $0.50 to $1.00 (we presume on machines and removal of a worst case boost to production).
After yesterday's unprecedented volatility fireworks across all markets and continents, today so far has been a modest disappointment, with no crashes and subsequent surges in China, where the Politburo's only achievement was keeping the bubble dream alive by pushing the Shanghai Composite over 5,000 for the first time since January 2008, closing the index 1.5% higher on the day - a very modest gain by China's recent blow-off top standards. Europe, too, has been relatively tame with the 10 Year Bund starting off on the wrong foot, the yield rising back above 0.91% before once again dipping to the upper 0.8% range, tracking the move in the EURUSD tick for tick, which also is a tractor beam for the US 10 Year. On the equity, front, things are just as muted, with futures at the Low of Day as of this moment, despite yesterday's last minute manic buying spree, the S&P set to open below 2100 as a result.
When Draghi warned traders yesterday that "markets must get used to periods of higher volatility" boy was he not kidding.
Legislation has been in introduced in the California state Senate that would increase the state’s approximately 47 cents-per-gallon gas tax by 10 cents. The new California fuel levy, which would be the state's first increase since 1994, will be collected on top of an 18.4-cents-per-gallon federal gas tax that is charged to all drivers in the nation to fill the federal government’s transportation funding coffers.
Why? Just because...and note this plunge began before the data hit this morning on heavy volume.
It’s almost a foregone conclusion that OPEC won’t cut its production levels at its June 5 meeting in Vienna. Anyone needing strong evidence, if not proof, of this need only listen to Ali al-Naimi, the architect of the cartel’s effort to reclaim market share. In fact, some observers say OPEC not only won’t cut overall production levels from 30 million barrels a day to shore up prices, but may even increase them.
For once Mario Draghi was right. A day after the European central bank head warned of a spike in volatility, volatility did just that, with markets everywhere from China to Europe seeing volatility explode.
While not as obvious as spoofing crude or stock futures, today's broken market covers some of the largest and most widely-held stocks in the US market. From JPMorgan to Johnson & Johnson, and from Pfeizer to GE, shortly before the cash open this morning, 13 major stocks saw sudden massive swings from 5 to 15%...