It's officially Groundhog day... and month... and year... and so on.
China Soars Most Since 2009 After Government Threatens Short Sellers With Arrest, Global Stocks SurgeSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 07/09/2015 08:57 -0400
The Shanghai Composite Index had dropped as much as 3.8% to a 4 month low before the news that the cops were going to arrest anyone who was caught "maliciously shorting stocks", when everything suddenly took off, and the SHCOMP closed a "Dramamine required" 5.8% higher, the biggest daily increase since March 2009! Stocks around the globe followed, with US equity futures wiping out much of yesterday's losses and up 1% at last check.
The long-awaited BRICS bank has officially launched, marking yet another milestone on the road to global de-dollarization and lending further credence to the notion that the sun is finally setting on the US-dominated multilateral institutions that have defined the post-war world and served to underwrite six decades of dollar dominance.
Since The FOMC's supposedly dovish June meeting, bonds have outperformed stocks rather notably and crude has crashed. The crucial aspect for the Minutes is the balance they struck between market turmoil overseas (dovish) and the domestic economic and housing recovery (hawkish) as to how that fits with an expectation for a 'gradual' post-September lift-off...
- *FOMC SAW CONDITIONS STILL APPROACHING THOSE WARRANTING LIFTOFF (dovish)
- *ONE MEMBER READY TO RAISE RATES IN JUNE BUT WILLING TO WAIT (dovish)
- *MANY FED OFFICIALS EXPRESSED CONCERN ABOUT GREECE AT JUNE FOMC (hawkish)
- *SEVERAL OFFICIALS VOICED UNCERTAINTY ABOUT CHINESE GROWTH PACE (hawkish)
With macro data having beaten expectations since then, the last best hope for stocks is that global turmoil picks up (as it has in Greece) to keep The Fed on hold (as they remain cornered to regain some ammo before the next 'event' happens). As SF Fed's Williams notes today the "safer course" for raising rates would be to start sooner and proceed gradually.
For the 2nd week in a row, crude oil inventories saw a build (after 8 weeks of draws) albeit a modest 384k barrels. Cushing also saw an inventory build. At the same time, production rose very modestly back to near cycle record highs (thouygh we note an extremely small drop in Lower 48 production). Crude prices have tumbled on the news as apparently yesterday's exuberance over better demand data from EIA has been long forgotten...
Today's market battle will be between those (central banks) "hoping" that a Greek deal over the weekend is finally imminent (which on one hand looks possible after a major backpeddling by Tsipras - who may never have wanted to win the Greferendum in the first place - yesterday in Brussels and today during his speech in the Euro Parliament, but on the other will be a nearly impossible sell to Greece as any deal terms will be far harsher than the deal offered by the Troika 2 weeks ago and will have no debt reduction), and those who finally noticed that the Chinese central planners have effectively lost control.
While not predicting that Tehran and six world powers will strike a deal by the new July 10 deadline, a senior Iranian oil official says his country hopes to nearly double its crude exports immediately if and when sanctions are lifted and hopes that OPEC will accommodate this growth by capping production by the cartel’s other members. “We are like a pilot on the runway ready to take off,” Mansour Moazami, Iran’s deputy oil minister for planning and supervision, told The Wall Street Journal inTehran on July 5. “This is how the whole country is right now.”
Overnight hope has faded and WTI crude prices have retumbled as Iran deal expectations rebuild and China economic collapse fears grow. The last few days have seen crude break crucial support levels and tumble to 3 month lows, down over 12% - the biggest losing streak since November. Credit risk for HY energy names is resurgent, crushing the mal-investment dream in a double-whammy for the industry as cost of capital rises and incomes shrink.
- Greece faces last chance to stay in euro as cash runs out (Reuters)
- Tsipras Begins Brussels Campaign to Keep Greece Inside the Euro (BBG)
- Greek Crisis Shows How Germany’s Power Polarizes Europe (WSJ)
- Eurogroup Head Dijsselbloem Calls for ‘Credible’ Greece Package (BBG)
- Europe Not Playing ‘Domino Theory’ Leaves Markets Calm on Greece (BBG)
- China stocks fall again despite support measures (Reuters)
- Chinese Trading Suspensions Freeze $1.4 Trillion of Shares Amid Rout (BBG)
- Crude Creeps Higher After Downturn (WSJ)
When it comes to Greece, and Europe in general, "hope" continues to remain the driving strategy. As Bloomberg's Richard Breslow summarizes this morning, "if you were looking for a word to describe the general feeling of equity markets today, you might well pick hopeful. U.S. equity futures opened higher and have been up all day. European bourses opened cautiously higher as they await word, any word, from the European finance ministers or more importantly, Chancellor Merkel. Equity markets will continue to be very reactive to European headlines, but so far, no news has been taken as a reason for hope." Which incidentally, has been the general investment case for the past 6 years: "hope" that central banks know what they are doing.
In hyperinflation, the currency's purchasing power collapses. Many Fed critics have predicted this will come soon, though it hasn't happened yet. However all is not well with the dollar.
Earlier today we commented that while stock markets across the globe, heavily influenced by central bank intervention from the PBOC to the SNB, are doing everything in the central planners' power to telegraph just how irrelevant Greece is, other indicators are far less sanguine. One example was copper, which plunged to a level not seen since February, and was in danger of breaching its 15 year support level. The commodity weakness today has persisted and is now crushing both WTI crude and Brent, both of which are in freefall, and WTI is now down over $3 on the session, or 6%, to a $53 handle, the biggest one day plunge since February to a level last seen in early April when there was much hope that the dramatic plunge in December and January was finally over. Turns out it wasn't.