Crude

Morgan Stanley Expects Oil To Hit $35 In A Few Weeks: Here's Why

Morgan Stanley's Adam Longson confirmed overnight that he isn't going to change his bearish oil call any time soon, with a warning that "very little has been addressed fundamentally to correct these problems. Greater headwinds lay ahead, especially for crude oil. In fact, we would argue that recent price action and developments may have exacerbated the situation." Putting a number to his call: oil will slide to $35 in the next 1-3 months.

Oil Surge Continues As Short Squeeze Accelerates

Despite a significant build at Cushing (Genscape +300k), tumbling China demand, and Libyan supply, the ever more financialized crude oil market is aoneway street higher of short-squeezing exuberance. As 2015's August explosion plays out again, WTI Crude just broke back over $43 as record shorts suffer...

Oil Spikes On Renewed OPEC Supply Cut Chatter, Just As Hedge Funds Turn Record Short

The key catalyst for today's spike is another convenient report by OPEC, according to which the oil exporting organization will hold informal talks at an energy conference in September. However. the biggest threat to oil's recent price decline is that, like in February, hedge funds are now massively short. In fact, according to Bloomberg, hedge funds have gone all-in on lower oil prices, counting on seasonal weakness to play out again this year. Specifically, money managers increased wagers on declining crude prices to a record as futures dropped to the lowest in more than three months.

Weak Chinese Trade Data Confirms Global Slowdown, Imports Tumble

While central banks continue to "print" liquidity, now at a pace of nearly $200 billion per month, they are unable to print trade, perhaps the single best indicator of deteriorating global economic conditions. The latest confirmation came overnight from China, which reported another batch of disappointing trade data including imports which have now declined for 21 straight months, while exports have fallen for 12 of 13 months.

S&P To Open At New Record High As Commodities Rise, China Trade Disappoints

The meltup continues with the S&P500 set to open at new all time highs as futures rise 0.2% overnight, with European, Asian stocks higher, as job data pushed MSCI Asia Pacific Index towards highest close since Aug. 2015. Germany, U.K. economic data seen positive, with dollar, oil rising, and gold declining. The MSCI All-Country World Index rose 0.4% and was headed for its highest close in almost a year.

The Warren Buffett Economy: How Central-Bank-Enabled Financialization Divided America

Needless to say, the above outlandish graph does not capture capitalism at work. Nor did the speculators who surfed upon this $45 trillion bubble harvest their monumental windfalls owing to investment genius. Instead, it is the perverted fruit of Bubble Finance, and there is no better illustration of this bubble surfer syndrome than the sainted Warren Buffett.

Why Oil Under $40 Will Bring It All Down Again: That's Where SWFs Resume Liquidating

If oil were to drop back under $40, not only would it precipitate even more selling of oil as momentum strategies flip, but it would catalyze a liquidation by those SWFs who thought they were done selling equities, leading to a return of the same sellers that pushed the S&P back to the low 1,900s a short 6 months ago. So for all those curious where stocks are going next, the simple answer is: keep an eye on what oil does next.

Oil Bounce Fades After 6th Weekly Rig Count Rise In A Row

Having ripped off the algo-run-seeking $39 handle lows after DOE data, WTI broke $42 this morning on payrolls before fading back into the rig count data. For the 9th week of the last 10, US Oil rig counts increased (+7 to 381).

Futures, Global Stocks Rise As Oil, USDJPY Drops: All Eyes On The Jobs Report

With all eyes on today's jobs report, where consensus expects a 180K payrolls gain, European, Asian stocks and S&P futures all rise amid a surge in government debt as markets digest the BOE's "kitchen sink" easing for a second day. But please don't overthink it. In deja vu fashion, Bloomberg summarizes the action simply as "stocks rose around the world on speculation central bank stimulus measures will support the global economy." We've heard that just a few times before.