For the 11th week in a row, the number of US oil rigs rose (up 10 to 662 - the highest since September 2015). And worse still, there are thousands of drilled shale wells are sitting idle, unfracked and uncompleted. That supply sitting on the sidelines will put downward pressure on any new oil price rally... which may explain why the Saudis have just cut prices to Asia once again.
Stocks fell worldwide on the last day of the quarter, with US equity futures pointing to a lower open even as the S&P is set for its best quarter since 2015 amid persistent economic and political uncertainty.
"With the ‘hawkish Fed/dovish ECB’ scenario, the USD is experiencing ‘signs of life.’ In turn, this could in fact reinvigorate ‘US domestic reflation’ trades which had been on life-support or unwound outright over the prior weeks / months."
Asian shares and oil are lower, European shares are little changed, and S&P futures are fractionally in the red after gaining for most of the overnight session, perhaps troubled by warnings by two Fed presidents who warned that markets and valuations appear frothy, and the Federal Reserve may have to raise rates more times than currently forecast.
While fuel supplies in the country with the world's largest proven oil reserves had continued flowing despite monetary collapse and hyperinflation, a domestic oil industry in turmoil and a deepening economic collapse under President Nicolas Maduro, that changed last Wednesday when Venezuelans found themselves waiting in lines for gasoline.
The recent drop in oil prices, which has almost wiped out the price gains since OPEC announced its supply-cut deal, is coming just ahead of the spring season when banks are reassessing the credit lines they are extending to support drillers’ growth plans.
WTI and RBOB prices have drifted higher after modest weakness following API's inventory data overnight and then spiked after DOE reported a smaller than expected crude build, and bigger than expected gasoline and distillate draws. Following the lage rig count data, US crude production rose once again to its highest since Feb 2016.
Brexit day has finally arrived, and despite this major "risk event", European and Asian stocks are trading mixed, while S&P futures are just fractionally lower as a bounce on optimism over the American economy appears to have fizzled and President Trump continues to struggle to pass his legislative agenda. The pound first dipped then rose as the U.K. is set to begin its life outside the EU.
After an early spike on Libya production fears and OPEC production cut extension hope, WTI and RBOB faded all day on dollar strength ahead of the API data. The trend of builds in Crude and draws in gasoline and distillates continued but the gasoline draw was notably less than expected and has sparked selling in RBOB.
"Without movement here, the market is looking increasingly binary, with momentum building again in the ‘disinflation’ camp the longer we stay ‘stuck’ in status quo, ESPECIALLY into the back-half of the year, with the Fed again hiking and the ECB transitioning towards ‘tightening’ as well."
“Equity market participants have taken a look at the lower yields and weaker dollar and decided that since absurdly low rates are the elixir that the equity bull market lives on, they might as ‘buy the dip’ yet again” Kit Juckes, a strategist at Societe Generale wrote.
China's top steel producing province Hebei was ordered by China's central government to investigate firms in Tangshan that have "restricted but not cut production, restricted production but not actually cut emissions, and cut capacity but actually increased output," according to a provincial notice dated March 25.