Crude

Frontrunning: June 1

  • Japan PM delays sales tax hike, puts fiscal reform on back burner (Reuters)
  • Japanese Shoppers Keep Wallets Shut Despite Sales-Tax Delay (BBG)
  • Global stocks limp into June on oil and data slips (Reuters)
  • Euro zone factory growth remained tepid in May - PMI (Reuters)
  • China's factories steadying but weak, hopes for quick recovery fade (Reuters)

Global Stocks, US Futures Slide On Mediocre Manufacturing Data, Yen Surge

Following the latest set of global economic news, most notably a mediocre set of Chinese Official and Caixin PMIs, coupled with a mix of lackluster European manufacturing reports and an abysmal Japanese PMI, European, Asian stocks and U.S. stock index futures have continued yesterday's losses. Oil slips for 4th day, heading for the longest run of declines since April, as OPEC ministers gather in Vienna ahead of a meeting on Thursday to discuss production policy. The biggest winner was the Yen, rising 1%, with the USDJPY tumbling overnight and pushing both the Nikkei 1.6% lower and weighing on US futures.

Is OPEC About To Surprise The Oil Markets?

A day before the OPEC summit kicks off, top officials from the oil cartel say that the markets are moving in the right direction, a sign of confidence that suggests little could emerge from this week’s meeting.

These Are The Two Most Important Questions Facing The Market

The two most important questions by far, those whose answer will determine not only the near term return of the S&P, but also global equity markets as well as that all-important commodity, oil, are the  following: Can the oil price hold up even as the dollar rises;  and, Can the CNY depreciate without hurting asset prices? Here is Deutsche Bank's attempt at an answer.

The Fascinating Story Of How The Petrodollar Was Born And Lived In Secrecy For Over 40 Years

For decades, the story of Saudi Arabia recycling US petrodollars, i.e., funding the US deficit by buying US Treasuries with proceeds of its crude oil sales (mostly to the US), while the US sweetened the deal by providing the Saudis with military equipment and supplies, remained entirely in the conspiracy realm, with no confirmation or statement from the US Treasury department. Now, that particular "theory" becomes the latest fact, thanks to a fascinating story by Bloomberg which lays out the history of how the petrodollar was born...

Dow Dumps Into Red For May As Oil Fails To Hold $50

Having tried (and failed) twice to hold $50, WTI Crude futures plunged back into the red as machines ran out of stops to churn. This triggered another notable leg lower in stocks, slamming The Dow into the red for May... Gold and bond are best since the Friday close.

Oil Spikes Near $50 On Libya Turmoil Despite Highest OPEC Production Since 2008

In its ubiquitous manner, crude futures decided to try and run the stops at the US equity open but were unable to get to $50 (49.984 in July WTI) before fading back a little. Ths driver - according to the narrative-du-jour - is turmoil in Libya and ongoing Nigeria and France disruptions, which are both offsetting a surge in OPEC production to its highest level since 2008 in the minds of the machines. "The market is pretty much on hold until we get all this information," says Deutsche Bank's Jens Pedersen of the data dump and OPEC meetings this week. "We need to get that out of the way to see if there is a reason for oil to go higher."

Frontrunning: May 31

  • Major Bourses on Course to End Month Sharply Higher (WSJ)
  • Brent crude lower on strong Middle East oil output (Reuters)
  • Treasuries Lose Their Lead Over Shares as Fed Moves Toward Shift (BBG)
  • Lost Decade for Value Stocks Tests Faithful Who Say End is Nigh (BBG)
  • Iraqi army pause at southern edge of Falluja as IS fights back (Reuters)
  • Risky Reprise of Debt Binge Stars U.S. Companies Not Consumers (BBG)

Futures Flat, Gold Rises On Weaker Dollar As Traders Focus On OPEC, Payrolls

After yesterday's US and UK market holidays which resulted in a session of unchanged global stocks, US futures are largely where they left off Friday, up fractionally, and just under 2,100. Bonds fell as the Federal Reserve moves closer to raising interest rates amid signs inflation is picking up. Oil headed for its longest run of monthly gains in five years, while stocks declined in Europe.

The Limits Of Oil's Rebound

Now that all of the main oil producers are unequivocally committed to maximizing production, regardless of the impact prices, oil will continue to trade just like any other commodity (for example, iron ore) that is in oversupply in a competitive market. Prices will be determined as described in any standard economics textbook: by the marginal costs of the last supplier whose production is needed to meet global demand. In the 20-year period of competitive pricing from 1985 to 2004, the oil price frequently doubled or halved in the course of a few months. So the near-doubling of oil prices since mid-January’s $28 low is not surprising. But now that the $50 ceiling is being tested, we can expect the next major move in the trading range to be downward.

Global Stocks Unchanged; US Futures Rise Above 2,100 As Traders Celebrate Memorial Day

With the US closed for Memorial Day and UK markets also offline, overnight volumes have been weaker than normal on little newsflow. The main story remains the stronger USD which not only led to the lowest Yuan fixing since February 2011 but pushed the USDJPY as high as 111.50 overnight before paring gains. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is unchanged on poor volume, after earlier rising above the 200 DMA for the first time in 2016. US equity futures were 0.2%, or 4 points higher, currently resting just above 2,101 with the last trading day of May tomorrow expected to push the cash market over 2,100 as well.

CEO Of Asia's Largest Commodity Trader Unexpectedly Resigns

We have tracked the problems of recently junked Noble Group - Asia's largest commodity trader - extensively over the past year. Then, moments ago things finally turned serious for the company, announced moments ago on the Singapore stock exchange, not only is CEO Alireza resigning, to be replaced by William Randall and Jeff Frase as co-CEOs, but the company will also begin the sale process of its Noble Americas Energy Solutions, one of its star assets, in a deal that will generate "significant cash proceeds", which is the best confirmation just how desperate for cash the company truly is.