Crude

Keep Calm and Keep Buying. We are sure this will be the message as for the first time this year, the Dow closed the week in the red. First time in 42 years that the S&P 500 started the year up six weeks in a row... as the S&P and Nasdaq managed modest gains (thanks to AAPL's help) - making new multi-year highs as yet another high stop-run was sent out early. After testing back under 13%, VIX popped back higher in the afternoon to close the week slightly higher. However, while stocks stumbled along sideways not really doing anything - every other asset class saw significant risk-off related moves. The USD saw its biggest weekly rise in 7 months! Treasury yields dropped 6-8bps - the biggest rally in bonds in 5 weeks. High-yield credit has suffered its biggest 2-week plunge in 9 months. WTI Crude saw its biggest weekly drop in 2 months. Given the USD strength, gold performed very well (ending the week unch). Stocks remain significantly dislocated from credit, rates, and FX markets in the medium-term (all of which closed the week with a risk-off shift). Volume, amid the blizzard, was dismal today.

Following November's massive trade deficit surge, when the final print of $48.7 billion was far worse than the $41.3 billion expected, it was only (il)logical that the December trade number would reverse this trend to the other extreme, which it did with the December trade balance plunging from a revised $48.6 billion to a tiny $38.5 billion - the lowest deficit since January 2010, and the biggest beat to expectations of $46 billion since February 2009. The deficit was the result of December exports which were $3.9 billion more than the $182.5 billion in November, and imports some $6.2 billion less than November's total $231.1 billion. Broken down by category, the goods deficit decreased $9.4 billion from November to $56.2 billion, and the services surplus increased $0.7 billion from November to $17.7 billion. A key driver of this move was a spike in Petroleum exports which shrunk the Petroleum product trade gap to the smallest it has been since August 2009 as the US imported the least amount of crude oil since February 1997. Whether this is due to rising domestic production, or just the ongoing collapse in end demand (which is to the US economy as electricity is China's traditional "8%" GDP) remains unclear.

• Rate-Rig Spotlight Falls on 'Rain Man' (WSJ)
• Blizzard Cancels U.S. Flights, Threatens Snow in New York (BBG)
• Monti says he did not know of bank probes (FT)
• Japan's Aso: yen has weakened more than intended (Reuters)
• Japan Pledges Foreign-Policy Response to Territorial Incursions (BBG)
• Paratroops mutiny in Bamako in blow to Mali security efforts (Reuters)
• China, Japan engage in new invective over disputed isles (Reuters)
• Asteroid to Traverse Earth’s Satellite Zone, NASA Says (BBG)
• EU leaders haggle over budget tightening (FT)
• China Trade Tops Forecasts in Holiday-Distorted Month (Bloomberg)
• Buffett’s Son Says He’s Prepared Whole Life for Berkshire Role (BBG)

The raging second Egyptian Spring isn't quite the webcast ratings bonanza it was when it first struck in 2011, which makes sense as the current Muslim Brotherhood government has the full backing of the US and thus it is in "everyone's best interest" to not follow how close to a counterrevolution the nation once again is. And while for the time being the country's most valuable asset, the Egypt-controlled Suez Canal Authority is in "stable" hands, that does not mean that the government, which today announced its foreign reserves had dipped precariously to only $13.6 billion, can't enforce inflation where everyone else says deflation reigns. As a result, as of May 1, the tolls for any crude oil and other liquid tankers will rise by 5%, while tolls for other commodities will increase by 2-3%. Expect said additional infrastructure costs to be promptly passed on to end consumers around the globe.

• Obama to meet with Goldman's Blankfein, other CEOs Tuesday (Reuters)
• Chinese Firms Shrug at Rising Debt (WSJ)
• McGraw-Hill, S&P Sued by U.S. Over Mortgage-Bond Ratings (BBG)... but not Moody's or Fitch
• Dime a Dozen: Dollar Stores Pinched by Rapid Expansion (WSJ)
• Dell Board Said to Vote Monday Night on $24 Billion LBO (BBG)
• BOJ Governor Shirakawa to step down on March 19 (Reuters)
• Alberta may offer more to smooth way for Keystone (Reuters)
• Facebook Is Said to Create Mobile Location-Tracking App (BBG)
• Barclays takes another $1.6 billion hit for mis-selling (Reuters)
• Apple App Advantage Eroded as Google Narrows IPhone Lead (BBG)
• Texas School-Finance System Unconstitutional, Judge Rules (BBG)
• World Risks ‘Perfect Storm’ on Capital Flows, Carstens Says (BBG)

Analysts who’ve only started paying attention to the country in the last decade often seem convinced that China has no real business cycle, or a very mild one, that because its economy is centrally planned, it’s free from the fluctuations in investment that cause booms and recessions in countries that lack the scientific guidance of a Leninist single-party state. This convenient belief, however, is mostly an artifact of the period over which they’ve been observing its economy. The boom of the early 1990’s wasn’t followed by the usual bust. Instead, after a fairly mild slowdown, another boom period began towards the end of the decade, without the usual deep cyclical trough between expansions. However, this anomaly suggests that it is unlikely to be repeated. We’re probably living, now, with a China that’s back to the sort of violent swings in economic activity, and repeated struggles with inflation, that have been characteristic of most of its recent history. To understand why, it’s necessary to understand DeWeaver's explanation of the nature of the cycle itself.

Exxon reported 4Q profit at a five-year high boosted by its refining arm.  However, Delta Airlines (DAL) can’t tell a similar success story with its newly acquired refinery at Trainer, PA. 

Between Hess' plant closing and scheduled maintenance, the squeeze appears to be on the refining space and wholesale gasoline prices are smashing higher. Along with flares in geopolitical risk (Ankara today and Israel/Syria earlier in the week) driving underlying crude prices,  Gas prices (at the pump) are surging - to record highs for the first week of February as per AAA, hitting an all time high of $3.465 for this day and just surpassing last year's price of $3.455; and based on where wholesale prices are (given the lag), we could be seeing $4.00 gas at the pump in the next few weeks.

To teach Chevron an excruciatingly painful lesson for its “serious willful” violations that caused 15,000 people to seek medical treatment. But a rounding error?

• Risky Student Debt Is Starting to Sour (WSJ)
• Political scandal in Spain as PP secret accounts revealed (El Pais)
• New York Times claims Chinese hackers hijacked its systems (NYT)
• Spain's Rajoy, ruling party deny secret payment scheme (Reuters)
• Iran crude oil exports rise to highest since EU sanctions (Reuters)
• BlackBerry 10’s Debut Fizzles as U.S. Buyers Left Waiting (BBG)
• Costs drag Deutsche Bank to €2.2bn loss  (FT)
• And the gaming of RWA continues - Deutsche Bank Beats Capital Goal as Jain Shrugs Off Loss (BBG)
• More fun out of London - Barclays, RBS May Pay Billions Over Improper Derivatives Sales (BBG)
• Hagel to face grilling by Senate panel on Mideast, budget (Reuters)

Since the peak in 2008, the Dow Transports and the price of crude oil has been extremely highly correlated. Whether this is due to the inextricable factor of central bank liquidity flushing 'money' into each and every market around the world - or an increase in the link between demand for energy and increasing transportation needs - it seems something has recently changed. Oil prices have been stymied in the last year as global growth slowed and in spite of a plethora of hot-spots for geo-political risk flares has been unable to see premia rise. On the other hand, the Dow Transports have screamed higher. Different this time? It would appear so... or is this a return to the anti-correlated (somewhat more sensible) energy-cost-to-transports world that existed before the crisis?

Following today's dismal GDP print, the massive ongoing borrowing being undertaken by our government, and the Bernankian policies which appear inescapable (and entirely ineffective for anything but the market), we thought Ken Rogoff's recent op-ed from the FT was extremely appropriate. Many foreign observers look at the US budget shenanigans with confusion and dismay, wondering how a country that seems to have it all can manage its fiscal affairs so chaotically. The root problem is not just a hugely elevated level of public debt, or a patently unsustainable trajectory for old age entitlements. It is an electorate deeply divided over the direction of government, with differences compounded by changing demographics and sustained sluggish growth. It is hard to escape the notion that today’s budget battles are but a skirmish in a much longer-term war that won’t be settled soon. The idea that one should just ignore all these problems and apply crude Keynesian stimulus is a dangerous one. It matters a great deal how the government taxes and spends, not just how much. The US debt level is a constraint.

In a slight surprise, the FOMC appears to have seen the recent weakness in macro data as supportive of its ongoing pumpathon even suggesting more is possible:

• *FED SAYS GLOBAL MARKET STRAINS EASED
  
• *FED SAYS ECONOMY PAUSED DUE TO WEATHER, TRANSITORY ISSUES
• *FED SAYS ECONOMIC ACTIVITY `PAUSED IN RECENT MONTHS'
• *GEORGE DISSENTS FROM FOMC DECISION

Pre-FOMC: ES 1502.5, 10Y 2.025%, Crude $97.75, Gold $1678, EUR 1.3570

Swiss banks, UBS and Credit Suisse, have moved to offer allocated gold and silver accounts to their clients – including high net worth, hedge funds, other banks and institutions.  The move allows these entities to take direct ownership of their bullion in allocated accounts. According to the Financial Times, the banks say that they are making the move in order to reduce exposure and risks on balance sheets and in an effort to be more transparent.  “Under more common "unallocated" gold accounts, depositors' bullion appears on the banks' balance sheets, forcing them to increase their capital reserves. Like their global peers, UBS and Credit Suisse are under pressure from regulators to reduce capital-intensive activities ahead of the introduction of new Basel III global banking rules.” It is more likely that the banks made the move to allocated storage due to an increased preference from their investors who are weary of continuing systemic risk.

• Boeing misses Q4 top line ($22.3 bn, Exp. $22.33 bn) beats EPS ($1.28, Exp. $1.18), guides lower: 2013 revenue $82-85 bn, Exp. 87.9 bn
• Hilsenrath discovers DV01: Fed Risks Losses From Bonds  (WSJ)
• Airlines had 787 battery issues before groundings (Reuters)
• Monte Paschi ignored warnings over risk, documents show (Reuters) as did Mario Draghi
• China averts local government defaults (FT)
• Economy Probably Slowed as U.S. Spending Gain Drained Stockpiles (Bloomberg)
• Bono Is No Match for Retail Slump Hitting Dublin’s Fifth Avenue (BBG)
• Catalonia requests €9bn from rescue fund (FT)
• US plans more skilled migrant visas (FT)
• Japan PM shrugs off global criticism over latest stimulus steps (Reuters)
• CIA nominee had detailed knowledge of "enhanced interrogation techniques" (Reuters)
• Cleanliness Meets Godliness as Russia Reeled Into Cyprus (BBG)
• Deutsche Bank Seen Missing Goldman-Led Gains on Cost Rise (BBG)