Crude

USDJPY tried and failed... and so the machines shifted their momentum ignition efforts to crude - ramping WTI back up to post-API inventory build levels... If this fails to break the S&P above VWAP, VIX will be slammed...

It appears the machines will have their work cut out today to keep the 'green for 2015' dream alive today as the last 30 minutes have seen selling accelerate across stock and commodity markets with bonds and the dollar bid.

• Oil ends 2015 in downbeat mood; hangover to be long, painful (Reuters)
• Recession, retrenchment, revolution? Impact of low crude prices on oil powers (Guardian)
• Midwest Flooding Might Make the Oil Glut Worse (BBG)
• From Oil Glut to Shortage? Some Say It Could Happen (WSJ)
• Ten Years After Blowup, Amaranth Investors Waiting to Get Money Back (WSJ)
• China Fires a Warning Shot at Yuan Speculators With Bank Bans (BBG)

It has come down to this: a year in which the US stock market (led by a handful of shares even as the vast majority of stocks has dropped) has gone nowhere, but took the longest and most volatile path to get there, is about to close either red or green for 2015 based on what happens in today's low-volume session following yesterday's unexpected last half hour of trading "air pocket" which brought the S&P back to unchanged for the year.

With yet another false-dawn of crude prices blowing in the wind of cash-flow generation desperation, we thought it an appropriate time for a bigger picture glance at the state of the carnage in crude...

"Following Turkey’s downing of a Russian jet striking the Islamic State (IS), it is undeniable that Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdogan supports jihad terrorism in Syria. IS exports oil via Turkey and terrorists of IS, al-Qaeda, and other jihad groups transit the border."

If at first you don't succeed, try, try, keep trying again and again. That appears to be the mantra of Goldman's credit strategists.

Last night's surprisingly large inventory build reported by API (+2.9mm vs expectations of -2.5mm) sent hopeful crude prices reeling (not helped by comments from Iran and Saudi this morning). Following last week's huge 5.9mm draw, DOE reports a 2.63mm build (confirming API's data). Cushing (which API reported as a 923k build) also saw DOE report a 0.9mm barrel build (pushing closer to its limits). As we have detailed previously, December typically sees major drawdowns in inventory as energy firms attempt to minimize tax burdens into year-end. December 2015 has seen a notably lower drawdown.

Sell Mortimer, Sell!

“We will satisfy the demand of our customers. We no longer limit production. If there is demand, we will respond. We have the capacity to respond to demand," Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi told reporters on Wednesday, underscoring the kingdom's belligerent stance as "lower for longer" heads into 2016. Meanwhile, Russia's Finance Ministry may reconsider its forecast for $50/bbl crude, a move which could inflate Moscow's budget deficit.

Even as Islamic State oil continues to flow from Syria and Iraq through Turkey, Ankara says it's cracking down on ISIS sleeper cells. In the latest example, Turkey has arrested two men the government says were planning a suicide attack on New Year's Eve in the country's capital.

• Oil rebound fizzles, sending global shares lower (Reuters)
• Saudi Arabia Won’t Change Oil Production (WSJ)
• China suspends forex business for some foreign banks (Reuters)
• Republicans come up short in search for diverse voters in 2016 election (Reuters)
• Oil Prices Become a Problem for U.S. Steelmakers (BBG)
• Oil-Producing States Battered as Tax-Gushing Wells Are Shut Down (BBG)

With just two days left in 2015, the main driver of overnight global stocks and US equity futures remains the most familiar one of all of 2015 - crude oil, which, after its latest torrid bounce yesterday has resumed the familiar "yoyo" mode, and again stumbled dropping below $37 on yesterday's surprising API 2.9 million crude inventory build, as well several more long-term "forecasts" by OPEC members, with Kuwait now budgeting for $30 oil, while Venezuela's Maduro said the oil price fell to $28/bbl and is "headed downward." As a result U.S. futures declined and European stocks fell, extending their worst December drop since 2002 in thin volume on the last full trading day of the year.

In addition to receiving a salary and a constant stream of weapons courtesy of regional Sunni benefactors, and on top of being allowed to live in a perpetual state of dark, bacchanalian revelry, Islamic State soldiers also recieve 20% of the "loot" in captured territory and belong to a kind of militant Sam's Club which guarantees a 50% discount on a variety of fun items.