The overnight exuberance in crude oil futures markets has faded notably as the day has worn on. While news of supply cuts are unquestionably bullish (should one choose to believe it or not, remember the Saudis admission "we tend to cheat"), but the last few days have also seen a plethora of bearish-biased news that for now is being ignored.
With oil prices surging to 17-month highs following this weekend's OPEC-NOPEC deal and Saudi promises to cut still more, many Wall Street analysts are skpetical with Goldman Sachs warning that the Saudis are wrong to think U.S. shale production won’t respond to higher prices. However, Nomura and Bernstein see little threat to OPEC from rising U.S. shale production in 2017.
In a quiet start to the week, European, and Asian stocks fell with S&P futures fractionally in the red, as Chinese markets tumbled the most since June and crude oil surged, even as the Nikkei erased all losses for 2016 on continued weakness in the Yen.
Despite Saudi Arabia pumping record amounts of crude, the energy complex has spiked 6% higher tonight after two major headlines. First, Russia and other non-OPEC nations agreed to join the OPEC pledge to reduce production; and then, in what some are calling their "whatever it takes" moment, Saudi Arabia surprised the market by saying it will cut more than previously agreed.
"I fully understand the 'one China' policy, but I don't know why we have to be bound by a 'one China' policy unless we make a deal with China having to do with other things, including trade. We're being hurt very badly by China with devaluation, with taxing us heavy at the borders when we don't tax them, with building a massive fortress in the middle of the South China Sea."
Non-OPEC oil-producing nations struck a deal in Vienna on Saturday to cut crude output by 600,000 barrels a day, joining a pact meant to reduce a global oversupply of crude, lift prices and lend support to economies hurt by a two-year market slump.
As RBC's head of cross asset-strategy, Charlie McElligott, asks rhetorically in a note on Friday morning, “THE” question that every investor is asking remains this: when is “the gig up” with this reflation trade? Here is his attempt at an answer...
Chinese growth of crude oil imports may likely shrink by more than 60 percent next year, as storage facilities are filling in and smaller refiners face more scrutiny over taxes and licenses, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts.
European and Asian shares rose again and S&P futures were little changed, as world stocks were set for a weekly gain and held near 16-month highs on Friday, while the euro steadied after swings following the European Central Bank’s decision to extend its stimulus program.
"Just before the buy programs kicked in, the rally in the Dow Transports was shifting up a gear as the index was on the verge of punching through to a new record high. If the Transports made a new record high, it would confirm the record high in the Industrials, thus giving a Dow Theory buy signal. As that realization spread, the algorithms kicked in with buy program after buy program and the race was on."
There’s seemingly no stopping the equity side of the “Trumpflation” trade in what may be developing into an epic year end blow-off top. The euphoria which took the S&P 500, Russell 2000 and the Transports to all-time highs yesterday, and the Dow to less than 500 points away from 20,000 carried over into Asian stocks (+0.8%) as they followed bullish trend, while European stocks rose for a fourth day.