With the Fed and other Central banks now leveraged well above 50-to-1, even those entities that were backstopping an insolvent financial system are themselves insolvent.
Everything has to come to an end, sometime...
Now that Europe has demonstrated that one can go NIRP and not crash the system, will the Fed - once its silly obsession with hiking rates in the summer only to launch even more easing and/or QE as the ECB did in 2008 and 2011 - follow suit and join a rising tide of "developed" world central banks in punishing savers for hoarding cash? In a note released last night titled "Revisiting Negative Interest Rates in the US", Goldman shares its thought on the matter. It goes without saying that Goldman is important, because whatever Goldman's econ team shares with Goldman's Bill Dudley over at the NY Fed, usually tends to become official policy with a 3-6 month lag.
All Out War Pt 3: Contrary to Central Bank Rhetoric, the Danish Krone Peg's as Fragile As Glass, May Throw Banks Into Turmoil!Submitted by Reggie Middleton on 02/11/2015 08:22 -0500
Exactly as I warned 3 wks ago, Nordic countries are facing pressure. Here's strong evidence of a krone break, havoc to ensue in global banks, how to monetize when skittish brokers pull access & leverage.
This was the “Rubicon” moment: the instant at which Central Banks gave up pretending that their actions or policies were aimed at anything resembling public good or stability.
"It's a man-made tragedy, and the men who made it won’t fix it." So it turns out Lenin wasn’t just right that the best way to destroy the capitalist system is to debauch the currency. It’s also the best way, as Venezuela can tell you, to destroy the socialist one.
What Denmark has just done is "back-door QE", because as some forget, there are two ways to push the price of an asset higher (thus pushing its yield lower in the case of a bond): increase demand, which is what conventional QE does when central banks buy bonds, or reduce supply. Which is what Denmark just did by completely cutting off all Treasury issuance "until further notice". As a result, paradoxically, increasingly more speculators are betting that the "Trade of 2015" could be doing precisely the opposite of what the Danish central bank is hoping will happen: i.e., shorting the EURDKK (or going long the DKKEUR) in hopes that when the Danish peg finally does break, it too will result in long Swiss France-type profits.
As everyone knows by now, tomorrow the ECB will announce a QE plan that monetizes some €50 billion (and maybe more) in European government bonds per month, although Greece may be left out in the cold. It is also the reason why while European stocks have priced in more than 100% of the full impact of a €1 trillion QE, those gains are about to be wiped out. Here's why according to Panmure Gordon.
It appears the actions of the Swiss National Bank have prompted questions for all central banks as cash squirts away from the looming Euro crash (if France's Hollande is to be believed) to any and every other currency. As the Danish Krone rallied to its strongest in 10 years against the EUR in the last few days, worries over the currency breaking its peg have apparently prompted the Danish Central Bank into action:
- *DANISH CENTRAL BANK CUTS DEPOSIT RATE TO -0.2% FROM -0.05%
The immediate reaction was DKK weakness, but that has been completely unwound and follows worrying reassurances this week from Oestergaard that "Denmark's Krone peg to the Euro is secure."
At this point the current financial system was irrevocably broken. We simply had yet to feel it.
Since the European sovereign-debt crisis erupted in 2009, everyone has wondered what would happen if a country left the eurozone. The risks created by the SNB’s decision – as transmitted through the financial system – have a fat tail - and the consequences will not be limited to Switzerland. After years of wondering whether the exit of a small, fiscally weak country like Greece could undermine the euro, policymakers will have to deal with an even bigger shock stemming from the exit of a small, fiscally strong country that is not even a member of the European Union.
By ending its three year currency peg to the weakening euro Switzerland has become the first major economy to surrender in the international currency war, and in so doing has given a long-delayed victory to the Swiss people. Contrary to the indignant reaction by the media and financial establishment, the decision is not a disaster for Switzerland, but may be looked at in the future as the first significant counter-attack against our current global system of monetary insanity.
At this point, the writing is on the wall: nothing can be taken for granted. No assurances or promises or proclamations will hold.
Anyone who continues to believes in the all powerful CB after today is a fool.