Cyclicality

When Will The Tesla Stock-Promote Finally Fail

"When people realize that it’s a cash incinerating vanity project for Elon Musk, at a time when new, better products are coming to the market... That point is coming soon. Very soon..."

Draghi Did Not Keep His Promise

"The threat to the euro is today greater than it was in 2012, and for that Draghi has completely failed. It comes not in Target II imbalances and Greek default penalties, but in political upheaval tied directly to what it is that Mario Draghi can’t seem to figure out. He can promise all he wants, but Europe’s fate will not be determined by his euro."

Bill Blain On This Morning's European Euphoria

This morning the European markets are Risk-ON in frothy celebration because Right-Wing demagogue Gert Wilders “apparently” lost the election and won’t dominate the coalition process.

"The Jinga's Up"

When valuations reach extremes, despite what the masses say, even greater fools run out.

Carlson Capital: Border Adjustment Tax Would Lead To "Global Depression"

"If the border adjustment mechanism is implemented as proposed we think it will cause a global depression and a major equity market decline. It is still unclear whether it will happen but at the very least we expect that US trade policy will put downward pressure on global growth. When this becomes apparent commodities will correct meaningfully and we will reinvest in inflation beneficiaries."

What's Behind The Relentless Market Surge? RBC Explains

"We continue to see obvious re-risking in the form of “buy everything” price-action, as investors push further out onto the risk curve against a shift away from the 5+ year narrative of “secular stagnation” towards positioning that allows capture of “reflation animal spirits.”

Visualizing The "Tectonic Shift" In The Markets' Narrative

"...we're at a phase in this UST / developed sovereign bond trade where previously acceptable conditioning (‘buy dips’; ‘get long-er duration because it just keeps working’; ‘never-ending bond inflows will always pause selloffs’ etc) are all being reset in real-time, and this behavioral shift is painful."

Equity Convexity Is Back "In Play" - A Reminder Of How We Got Here

The market continues to “buy into” growing long-term narrative that CBs are shifting from notional “flow” of QE purchases to yield targeting / curve steepening goals and desire for more fiscal policy.  To anybody being intellectually honest, this should be interpreted in the long-term as “a path to tightening.”  Long-end weakens, curves steepen.

Traveling Circus

After Wednesday’s policy statements by the Fed and Bank of Japan, a harsh light is being shined on the incredible nature of their communications. It would be wise in the current environment to structure investment portfolios with a pro-volatility bias.