Cyclicality

Bill Blain On This Morning's European Euphoria

This morning the European markets are Risk-ON in frothy celebration because Right-Wing demagogue Gert Wilders “apparently” lost the election and won’t dominate the coalition process.

"The Jinga's Up"

When valuations reach extremes, despite what the masses say, even greater fools run out.

Carlson Capital: Border Adjustment Tax Would Lead To "Global Depression"

"If the border adjustment mechanism is implemented as proposed we think it will cause a global depression and a major equity market decline. It is still unclear whether it will happen but at the very least we expect that US trade policy will put downward pressure on global growth. When this becomes apparent commodities will correct meaningfully and we will reinvest in inflation beneficiaries."

What's Behind The Relentless Market Surge? RBC Explains

"We continue to see obvious re-risking in the form of “buy everything” price-action, as investors push further out onto the risk curve against a shift away from the 5+ year narrative of “secular stagnation” towards positioning that allows capture of “reflation animal spirits.”

Visualizing The "Tectonic Shift" In The Markets' Narrative

"...we're at a phase in this UST / developed sovereign bond trade where previously acceptable conditioning (‘buy dips’; ‘get long-er duration because it just keeps working’; ‘never-ending bond inflows will always pause selloffs’ etc) are all being reset in real-time, and this behavioral shift is painful."

Equity Convexity Is Back "In Play" - A Reminder Of How We Got Here

The market continues to “buy into” growing long-term narrative that CBs are shifting from notional “flow” of QE purchases to yield targeting / curve steepening goals and desire for more fiscal policy.  To anybody being intellectually honest, this should be interpreted in the long-term as “a path to tightening.”  Long-end weakens, curves steepen.

Traveling Circus

After Wednesday’s policy statements by the Fed and Bank of Japan, a harsh light is being shined on the incredible nature of their communications. It would be wise in the current environment to structure investment portfolios with a pro-volatility bias.

Jim Rogers Explains What He Is Doing Before "The Next Time The World Comes To An End"

One week after RealVision brought us the latest Jeff Gundlach interview, in which the DoubleLine bond king explained why he is now "100% net short", on Friday Grant Williams interviewed Jim Rogers, in which George Soros' former partner (the two co-founded the Quantum Fund in 1973), is about as gloomy, warning "the next time the world comes to an end, it's going to be a bigger shock than we expect."

Bad Data, Broader Alarms, And Business Cycles

The economy is pointing downward with alarms ringing in a wider and broader variety of important economic accounts. From this view, it is no wonder the FOMC overreacted to the May payroll report; that’s all that is left as it is more and more isolated.

"Policymakers Have Been Calling A 'Depression' A 'Recovery' For Nearly A Decade"

"I'd like to think that logic and reality will prevail; that distaste for being told how great the world is has become sufficiently revolting and obviously false to stir the world’s populace to end the imbalances. But that, again, will take time, perhaps a good deal of time; until then, whenever it hopefully is, central banks continue to operate with impunity even though the risks of their intemperance rise exponentially..."