In the face of such resistance from member states, the European Commission's plan to penalize them for not accepting "their share" of migrants could not possibly be more ill-timed and out of touch. It comes across as a desperate attempt by the EU's executive body to force its way of handling the migrant crisis onto disobedient EU member states, like an authoritarian parent disciplining its unruly children. There is, however, such a thing as bending something until it snaps. By persisting in pushing their agendas on EU member states that still consider themselves sovereign and not merely provinces of the European Union, Timmermans and his European Commission bureaucrats may just have given the European Union its kiss of death.
In what may be one of the least relevant payroll reports in a long time as the Fed already knows the labor market is doing better quantiatively (qualitatively it has been all about low-paying jobs gaining at the expense of higher paying manufacturing and info-tech positions) and as has further demonstrated it is no longer jobs data dependent, here is what Wall Street consensus expects: total payrolls +200,000, down from 215K in March; a 4.9% unemployment rate; average hourly earnings rising 0.3% (last 0.3%) M/M and 2.4% Y/Y (last 2.3%); on labor force participation of 63%.
EU Plans $290K Per Person Fine For Countries Refusing "Fair Share" Of Refugees; Angry Response EnsuesSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 05/04/2016 21:15 -0400
The European Commission plans fines of $290,000 per person on countries refusing to take in their fair share of refugees. This plan is aimed straight at Poland, Slovokia, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Austria. Sure enough, those countries promptly lashed out at the European Commission's proposal, blasting the plan as “blackmail.”
Futures are currently unchanged, but the E-mini was down as much as 12 points less than two hours earlier after the European open when this time it was up to the PBOC to intervene in global markets by pushing the Yuan higher (selling USDCNY via intermediary banks) sending global stocks sharply higher off session lows and leaving the S&P futures virtually unchanged. As Bloomberg reported, there has been increasing USD/CNY selling in afternoon session as Dollar Index edged lower. This is the PBOC entering the building and levitating stocks.
Amid the growing ghetto-isation of Muslim Europe, and with 66% of Germans against Merkel, German police have arrested five suspects on terrorism charges in raids on a right-wing group charged with attacking asylum shelters in the east of the country in the midst of Europe’s refugee crisis. German officials have proclaimed the raids show that "the state is moving resolutely and in a timely fashion against right-wing terrorist structures and criminals." We suspect sadly that more attacks, and more arrests are to come as George Soros calls for Europe to accept 500,000 more refugees per year.
In an effort to slow Syrian, Afghan, and Iraqi migrants traveling to Europe, many countries are now implementing border controls, a decision that could prove to have significant negative consequences for Europe's economy. As Bloomberg notes, the open border economy supports more than 400 million people, with 24 million business trips, and 57 million cross-border freight transfers happening every single year. Research by the Bertelsmann Foundation asserts that a permanent return to border controls could cost $530 billion of GDP growth from the European economy over the next decade.
- Global stocks, dollar and oil cool ahead of Doha meeting (Reuters)
- Oil Falls Before Doha as Global Markets Brace for Weekend Risk (BBG)
- China Growth Slows; Revival Policies Appear to Gain Traction (WSJ)
- White House hopefuls Clinton, Sanders joust in Brooklyn brawl (Reuters)
- Trump talks up 'New York values' as protesters demonstrate against him (Reuters)
- Sanders Can’t Clarify Wall Street Plan in Testy Clinton Debate (BBG)
In recent days, we have observed a distinct trading pattern: a ramp early in the US morning, usually triggered by some aggressive momentum ignition, such as today's unexplained pump then dump in the EURUSD with stocks rising after the European open, rising throughout the US open, then peaking around the time the US closed at which point it is all downhill for the illiquid market. So far today, the pattern has held, and after trading flat for most of the overnight session, with Europe initially in the red perhaps on disappointment about the Italy bank bailout fund, a bout of early Europe-open associated buying pushed US futures up, following the first rebound in the USDJPY after 7 days of declines which also helped the Nikkei close 1.1% higher.
While Sweden's seemingly self-imposed refugee crisis continues to roil the nation's population, it appears a different and potentially just as problematic social unrest looms. As Gatestone reports, for the last few years, immigration-welcoming Sweden has been overwhelmed with Roma beggars from Romania and Bulgaria who have turned "panhandling into an occupation."
NATO isn’t just an expensive luxury of the sort we can no longer afford – it is a tripwire that could be set off by a minor border conflict involving Moldova, the status of Kaliningrad, or – more likely – another round of hostilities in Ukraine. Would we start World War III in defense of the oligarchs of Kiev? I wouldn’t put it past them. With his plan – or, rather, inclination – to abandon the old NATO and replace it with some sort of multilateral counterterrorist operation, and his insistence that our “allies” pay up, Trump is forcing an issue onto the stage that hasn’t been seen since the days of Bob Taft.
Amid secular stagnation, the Eurozone's old fiscal, monetary and banking challenges are escalating, along with new threats, including the Brexit, demise of Schengen, anti-EU opposition and geopolitical friction. Brussels can no longer avoid hard political decisions for or against an integrated Europe, with or without the euro.
Any project attempting to fuse these disparate cultures into one monolithic state over the course of just 70 years was by its very nature doomed. It would inevitably encounter insurmountable levels of nationalistic resistance, and eventually the project would stall. That is the point at which we now find ourselves.
It's not all jokes, apologies, and maple syrup...
Obama has been carrying out a bipartisan Republican-and-Democratic foreign policy; it’s the policy of America’s aristocracy. Its results have been horrible for the world, but they’ll be even worse if it succeeds.