• Tim Knight from...
    10/06/2015 - 17:03
    As we head into another earnings season, the bulls better pray to whatever pagan gods they worship that company after company magically defy the downturn that the economy is quite obviously entering.

Dark Pools

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Global Markets: It's Getting Ugly Out There

You'd have to be in full denial mode not to see that it's getting ugly out there in global markets: currencies are melting down, trade and shipping are tanking, commodities are swooning and global stock markets are increasingly on central-bank life support.

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Does The Fed Really Have A Choice?

We all know the global economy is slowing, so why would stocks soar from here? The basic answer is simple: The Fed has no choice, because this game is now for all the marbles.

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CyberWar & The False Comfort Of Mutually Assured Destruction

As an investor, you have enough to be concerned about just taking into account factors like inflation, deflation, Fed policy and the overall state of the economy. Now you have another major threat looming – financial warfare, enabled by cyberattacks and force multipliers. What can you do to preserve wealth when these cyberfinancial wars break out? The key is to have some portion of your total assets invested in nondigital assets that cannot be hacked, wiped out or disrupted by financial warfare. The time to take defensive action by acquiring some non-digital assets is now.

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The Letter That Stock Exchanges Should Write To Investors

Dear Investors, The last few weeks have exposed that our equity markets are not as liquid as we have long claimed mainly due to market fragmentation and the lack of diverse liquidity pools...

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A Layman's Explanation Of The Wall Street Rigged Casino Analogy

It doesn’t make sense to you. And it shouldn’t to anyone. Unless – they first go directly to the ‘house bar and media entertainment center’ that is always open and always free with spiked Kool-Aid™. It works better and is cheaper than actual liquor. It’s not actually a drink per se. It’s just hoopla and endless propaganda for the masses. That’s why it’s free and encouraged. It keeps everyone happy within the walls and enhances the experience, while simultaneously acting as one non-stop running commercial to entice anyone foolish to think they too can get rich quick. All legal by the way. The laws were adapted to fit the criteria.

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Citi Admits The Truth: "If The Market Drops 10%, The Fed Will Most Likely Not Hike"

The market has already delivered its verdict swiftly in the face of the global equity market correction– reducing substantially the probability of a rate hike in September, and pricing in a full rate hike only by March next year. We assign a higher probability than the market for a lift off in September but acknowledge that the risk has shifted towards later, a slower pace and a lower terminal rate. For now, we hold on to the put on EDU5 that we initiated two weeks ago. "Data dependency” over the next couple of weeks might really mean “equity market dependency”. If the equity market drops 10%, the Fed will most likely not hike, no matter what the payrolls data is.

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The Only Thing That Was Preventing A Rate Hike, Just Flashed A Rate Hike "Green Light"

The relief rally from the market drop that resulted over fears of a Fed rate hike, has pushed financial conditions back to a level which allows the Fed to hike again, which in turn means the market can drop again having risen enough to allow the Fed to do what it has done.

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Frontrunning: August 27

  • Virginia TV journalists killed by suspect with 'powder keg' of anger (Reuters)
  • Policeman shot to death and three women stabbed, one fatally, in Louisiana (Reuters)
  • China Intervened Today to Shore Up Stocks Ahead of Military Parade (Reuters)
  • Margin Calls Bite Investors, Banks (WSJ)
  • "Computer glitch" is preventing dozens of mutual funds, ETFs from promptly pricing their securities (WSJ)
  • Oil prices rise more than 4 percent as equities rally (Reuters)
  • Oil Industry Needs Half a Trillion Dollars to Endure Price Slump (BBG)
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Plunge Protection Teams Of The World, Unite!

Central bankers are watching Marx's dictum all that is solid melts into air play out in global stock markets with a terror informed by the scalding memories of 2008's global financial meltdown.  The herd must be turned away from selling by any means available, and at this point, that means coordinated buying by all the world's Plunge Protection Teams.

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Fundamentally Flawed Markets & The Grey Area Between Cheating And Edge

HFT critics are crowing over the ITG confession. You see! HFT is front running, plain and simple! Told you! And HFT defenders are largely silent because... well, you can’t defend the indefensible. However, if history is any guide at all, the existence of a clearly identifiable small-v villain will forestall the unmasking of what we believe is a Big Bad... the subterranean influence, bordering on control, of human investment behaviors by firms controlling advanced inference machines.

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Flash Crash Alert: Navinder Sarao Granted Bail, To Leave Prison Today

Earlier today, one of the biggest farces of 2015 was remedied when a UK judge granted Sarao a bail reduction from £5m to £50,000 and was allowed to leave prison as soon as today. As profiled before, Sarao had been at the infamous Wandsworth prison - Britain's worst - since his arrest. As the FT reports, at a court hearing at Westminster Magistrates Court in London today, a lawyer for the US said he would not oppose the bail reduction.

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Biggest US Dark Pool Busted For Rigging Markets, Engaging In Precisely The Manipulation It Warned Against

The WSJ reported that none other than the operator of the biggest dark pool in the US by volume, Credit Suisse and its massive Crossfinder dark pool, "is in talks with regulators to settle allegations of wrongdoing at its “dark pool” with a record fine in the high tens of millions of dollars, according to people familiar with the matter." What is grotesque about this story, is that back in December 2012, it was none other than Credit Suisse which conveniently explained and laid out all those forms of HFT manipulation which we accused virtually every HFT firm of employing since 2009... and which Credit Suisse itself is now accused of engaging in!

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Head Trader Of World's 4th Largest Hedge Fund Caught In HFT Frontrunning Scandal

Shortly after we reported the latest market-rigging scandal, in which ITG was busted for frontrunning sellside clients in its dark pool in what has been since dubbed a "trading experiment" (because it sounds better than criminal conspiracy to defraud clients), and which will cost the company a record for a private Wall Street firm $22 million settlement, we had one question for AQR's Cliff Asness yesterday morning: "Hi @Cimmerian999, is Hitesh Mittal the AQR employee who was formerly at ITG and is part of the SEC settlement?"   We got no answer from the AQR head, but luckily Bloomberg noticed, and as it turns out the answer to our question was a resounding yes.

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In Latest Market-Rigging Scandal, ITG Busted For Frontrunning Clients In Its Dark Pool

Since the market is once again on the verge of a terminal liquidity seizure with its associated side-effects (see China for details), the authorities needed to remind the "market" just who the scapegoat will be when the next crash finally does come. Which is why earlier today in an unexpected "preliminary second quarter guidance" release, ITG, owner of the Posit dark pool, was just busted with a $22.6 million potential SEC settlement for what appears to have been blatant frontrunning of company clients in its own prop trading pod. But what is particularly amusing in this case is that while everyone knows that when it comes to HFT's, it is never called "rigging" - the proper nomenclature is "glitch", so now we learn a new term to use instead of "criminal frontrunning" - drumroll... trading experiment,

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