Debt Ceiling

Morgan Stanley: "The Debt Ceiling Worries Us Most"

"Multiple failures in the US to pass healthcare legislation, despite single-party control, raise questions about a whole host of other issues, from the debt ceiling, to the budget, to taxes. The debt ceiling worries us most, given that action may need to be taken within as little as seven weeks..."

Congress’ Radical Plan To End Illegal Money

"Perhaps they may unwittingly do us all a favor and fail to raise the debt ceiling. Could the dopes in Congress hatch a more radical plan to put an end to the government’s illegal money? Only by accident..."

Trader Tells 'New' Volatility-Sellers: "Come On In, The Water's Warm"

"My message to all those new quant fund vol sellers, come on in! The water’s warm. Glad to have your new supply keeping implieds low. Don’t worry, I am sure the returns of the next 8 years of commodity volatility selling will be just as good as the last 8 years of equity index volatility selling… Yeah, when didn’t chasing the previous decade’s best return strategy not work?"

Euro Surges To 2-Year High In "Bipolar" Draghi Reaction; Futures Flat

"Draghi tried to talk the Euro down, even going so far as to suggest that ECB’s quantitative easing could be increased and prolonged," said Swissquote Bank's Yann Quelenn. "But the currency markets were not buying Draghi’s line, and neither are we. Available bonds are too scarce, and turn to a taper is too clear to disguise."

Stockman Warns Of The Imperial City's Fiscal Waterloo

"The stand by Senators Lee and Moran was much bigger than putting the latest iteration of McConnell-Care out of its misery. The move rang the bell loud and clear that the Imperial City has become fiscally ungovernable. That means there is a chamber of horrors coming. With it, an endless political and fiscal crisis that will dominate Washington for years to come. Its cause is deep and structural."

"Probably Nothing..."

Yesterday we warned of the growing anxiety in short-term Treasury-Bill markets over the looming debt-ceiling. Today, the tension has worsened with the 10/19 bill now up a shocking 13bps in 3 days leaving the curve extremely inverted around the potential debt-ceiling deadline.

T-Bill Tantrum: Yields Spike As Debt-Ceiling Anxiety Begins To Show

US default risk has flatllined for weeks, market risk has leaked to record lows, and Treasury Bills have 'behaved'... until now. The last two days have seen a sudden aggressive spike in the yields of T-Bills around mid-October, inverting the yirld curve as debt-ceiling anxiety starts to build quietly away from NFLX and AMZN shares.

What The Senate's Healthcare Fiasco Means For Trump Policies: Goldman Explains

Looking at last night's Senate fiasco, Goldman writes that while Congress may still pass a health bill, "it just won't be this one" and notes that the "enactment of much more narrowly-focused health legislation is still possible this year, in light of problems facing the individual insurance market for 2018." And in terms of near-term catalysts, all eyes now turn to the debt ceiling debate due in September...

BofA Is Very Worried About Two "Dangerous" Games Of Chicken About To Unfold

 "If the market is underpricing the uncertainty with respect to the outlook of US monetary policy, we are even more concerned that it seems totally impervious to the risk of two potentially disruptive, if not dangerous, Games of Chicken likely to unfold in the summer and the beginning of the fall."