Debt Ceiling

Over the past few days we have repeatedly heard the following statement: "China isn’t that important as it is only 7% of the U.S. economy." While that may be a true statement in relation to the economy, it is a far different matter when it comes to the financial markets. With financial markets so closely correlated, what happens in China has a direct and immediate impact on U.S. markets.

Market psychology established in recent years is reversing. Market volatility is rising and will remain pervasive for a while as psychology, the change in direction of Fed policy, and the increases in general uncertainties, will all conspire to shape an environment ripe for sharp spikes in volatility which will be further amplified by rickety market liquidity.

The S&P 500 closed at 2052 on November 18,2014. That was 405 days ago, and despite the rips and dips in the interim the broad market average has gone nowhere.

While we can account for the jump of $339 billion in November total debt, which is the result of the "debt ceiling" accrued debt recognition, what is unclear is how in the remaining 4 weeks of November, the US managed to add another $335 billion in total debt, bringing the total increase for the month of November to a whopping $674 billion, and total US debt to a record $18.827 trillion.

There is little evidence currently that the rally over the last couple of months has done much to reverse the more "bearish" market signals that currently exist. Furthermore, as noted by Jochen Schmidt, the current market action may be more indicative of market topping process. Not unlike previous market topping action, the markets could indeed even register "new highs," as witnessed in both 2000 and 2007 before the major market correction begins. This is typically how "bull markets" end by providing false signals and sucking in the last of those willing to "buy the top." The devastation comes soon after.

"The truth is, the debt ceiling doesn’t actually limit government spending. It’s a farce. Every time government debt gets close to the debt ceiling, Congress just raises it.”

There were a few different stories coming out over the last few days that reveal the true nature of government and the apparatchiks who use disinformation, devious machinations, fraudulent accounting, and taxpayer money to cover up their criminality, lies, and the true state of the American economy. The use of government accounting tricks to obscure the truth about our dire financial straits is designed to keep the masses sedated and confused.

8 months later, the US Treasury finally provided an update to the latest US debt number, and here it is: as of this moment, official US public debt is $18,492,091,120,833.99, or 102.5% of GDP.

By now most have heard of the infamous gas station in Sheberghan, northern Afghanistan which "cost" the U.S. Department of Defense nearly $43 million to "build."As it turns out this was nothing.  As the IG notes, somehow the Department of Defense lost all track and knowledge of a "reconstruction" program that amounted to a whopping $800 million...

The Fed is weighing the negative consequences of a strong dollar on corporate profits vs. unleashing inflation on the electorate, pressuring long term interest rates. We will soon see which negative scenario they favor and why.

It was 77 years ago this week that Orson Welles struck terror into the hearts of Americans with his live radio broadcast of the HG Wells classic War of the Worlds. What struck me while watching the PBS retrospective were the similarities between then and now. The gullibility of the masses, the power of fear, the overreaction by the media, busy bodies calling for the government to do something, and the effectiveness of propaganda are all commonalities between that Fourth Turning and today’s Fourth Turning.

On Wednesday morning a new national poll revealed that 54% of Americans rate the economy as 'poor', but instead of focusing oin that, Becky Quick quizzed Marco Rubio about his 'lack of bookkeeping skills,' Carl Quintanilla posed questions about homosexuality and fantasy football, and the astonishingly incompetent John Harwood expressed doubt about Donald Trump's 'moral authority.' The interaction between the candidates and the CNBC moderators revealed the yawning gap between the bubble world at the intersection of Washington and Wall Street and the hard scrabble reality of economic stagnation and political alienation on main street America.

It's that time again. From 'jolted' Jeb to 'cool' Carly and from 'calm' Carson to 'turmoiling' Trump, for some of the GOP presidential nominee candidates, tonight could be the last hoorah in a campaign that has seen apolitical entrants dominate the mainstream Washington muppets. Moderated by John "I never met a Republican I didn't like" Harwood, we are sure there will be some tension as the "general health of the economy" planned focus may morph into any and everything as the debate pushes beyond two hours. Please watch responsibly...

The exciting, if brief, life in the wild by the untethered JLENS blimp has come to a crashing halt. Moments ago, Norad told AP reported that the blimp is "on the ground and secure."

There are few political hacks in Washington more deserving of everlasting ignominy than retiring speaker John Boehner. So here’s a vehement good riddance to the man who has single-handedly destroyed whatever pathetic semblance of fiscal responsibility that remained in Washington.