Debt Ceiling

We would say today's main event is the culmination of the Fed's two-day meeting and the announcement slated for 2 pm this afternoon, however with the 90 economists polled by Bloomberg all expecting no rate hike, today's Fed decision also happens to be the least anticipated in years (which may be just the time for the Fed to prove it is not driven by market considerations and shock everybody, alas that will not happen). And considering how bad the economic data has gone in recent months, not to mention the recent easing, hints of easing, and outright return to currency war by other banks, the Fed is once again trapped and may not be able to hike in December or perhaps ever, now that the USD is again surging not due to its actions but due to what other central banks are doing.

Who holds the majority of the debt that would be at risk in a Russian default? Not China.  Not Iran.  Not Syria.  No, it’s the exact same nations, and banks and funds within those nations, that are applying the sanctions against Russia. So, if Russia does default, what does it mean in terms of its political relationship with the West? Nothing. But what does it mean to its creditors? Everything... Simply put, if Putin believes that the benefits of a default outweigh the consequences to his country, he won’t hesitate to do it, no matter the international ruckus it might raise.

Today, as we previewed last week, we got just the deal we envisioned.  Which leaves us only with the soundbites, such as this one moments from from John Boehner.

BOEHNER SAYS AGREES WITH RYAN THAT PROCESS THAT PRODUCED BUDGET DEAL "STINKS"; BUT ALTERNATIVE WAS CLEAN DEBT CEILING HIKE OR DEFAULT

And as Boehner's last act, he now has the honor of telling the US public that its latest and greatest debt target has just been increased to just shy of $20 trillion.

The signs of regime change are everywhere. From embarrassment by Russia's success in Syria to China's creation of its own 'World Bank' and SWIFT alternative, the trend of de-empirization are growing, but tonight's news that Washington will sell oil from its strategic reserve in order to meet budget constraints and avoid default (as China takes advantage of low prices to build its own reserves) is simply stunning in its analogy of the shifting world order.

News That Matters

With just days left until the November 3rd D-Day when the Treasury runs out of emergency cash and is forced to prioritize debt repayments over government spending, moments ago Politico reported that "congressional leaders and the White House are working toward a two-year agreement. A debt ceiling measure is on a parallel track."

In an op-ed released today in the USA Today, the US Treasury Secretary takes his appeal to raise the U.S. debt target once again, this time to the $19.6 trillion number disclosed here previously, by pointing fingers at "some in Congress" who "are endangering this progress by once again manufacturing a crisis for our country. By waiting to the last minute to act on the debt limit, Congress could cause a terrible accident. This is not an abstraction; failure to raise the debt limit would mean devastating impacts for taxpayers, consumers and businesses." Only this is not really true...

There is a tiresome debate as to whether or not volatility is an asset class. Let us end that debate... Volatility is the ONLY asset class. We are all volatility traders and the only question is whether we realize it or not.  If you disagree do me a favor and imagine you are an alien that just landed on earth and you know nothing about investing.

When corrupt politicians do as they are told by their keepers on Wall Street and in the boardrooms of S&P 500 mega-corps....

This is also why the debt ceiling needs to be raised every year, and the US has doubled the national debt over the last 8 years.

The only certain outcome from the melodramatic debt ceiling fight over the next several days, is the following: the US is about to have a brand spanking new debt ceiling, one that should last it until March of 2017: $19,600,000,000,000.

One week ago he said he has no interest in the Speaker position, but so much can change in one week. Moments ago Paul Ryan sent out a letter to the GOP announcing he would run for speaker of the house. And since he had previously said said he would only enter the speaker’s race if he could lock up support from three wings of the fractious party, in the space of just 3 days this week, he appears to have done just that.

Moments ago the US Treasury promptly removed any latent optimism that this latest debt ceiling crisis will somehow be magically fixed on its own after it announced that it would postpone the two-year note auction previously scheduled for Tuesday, as the impasse over the debt limit constrains the nation’s borrowing. “Due to debt ceiling constraints, there is a risk that Treasury would not be able to settle the two-year note”

After yesterday's dramatic late day market rout catalyzed by the tumble in the biotech sector in general, and Valeant in particular, and foreseen in its entirety by Gartman who went bullish just hours before, this morning US equity futures and European stocks have recouped some losses on the recursive, and traditional, hope that Mario Draghi will say something to push risk higher when he speaks in 2 hours at the ECB's press conference in Malta. And yet, just like Yellen a month ago, Draghi faces the paradox of reflexivity that after years of being ignored, is the "new thing" in town: how does he intervene and demonstrate he is readier than ever to set up stimulus, without panicking investors over euro area’s health.

The bloodbathery in Treasury Bills continues this morning with11/12/15 Bills pushing up to 14bps (from 0bps on Friday). Despite the "hopes" of Treasury Secretary Jack Lew that the US avoids a crisis, he warns "there's no margin for error" and with GOP Leadership talks still ongoing (as Paul Ryan lays down his demands), it appears markets are not taking any chances for now.