Debt Ceiling

With the possibility of a US government default growing day by day (1Y USA CDS rose 12bps today to 72bps) amid impasse after impasse in DC, Bloomberg's Mike McKee looks at the five possible scenarios should the debt ceiling be breached (however unlikely and ridiculous some may appear). From prioritization of payments to across-the-board cuts, 14th amendment interventions and delaying payments, McKee explains the process and implications of each. There are no good options left but we can't help but get the sense the Republicans might just be playing a longer-game here to take us beyond the Democrats' "red-line" of October 17th to highlight their fear-mongering (remember the shut-down devastation?) and potentially regain some election capital (in this increasingly twisted game of picking the worst of two evils)... and indeed, as we have long argued, until we see the market crash, nothing will be resolved.

Remember how we were told time and again that Europe was saved? Remember how repeatedly we were told that the European Central Bank (ECB) would do “whatever it takes” to fix things? Turns out all of that was a total load of BS.

There is no safe haven, Marc Faber tells Bloomberg TV's Tom Keene, "The best you can hope for is that you have a diversified portfolio of different assets and that they don't all collapse at the same time." Bank deposits are no longer safe; money and treasury bills are not 100% safe; and equities in the US are relatively expensive by any valuation metric. However, at around $1250, gold is a buy, Faber adds on the basis of the ongoing monetization of debt globally. The debt ceiling debacle will lead to the Fed stepping up to directly fund the government (something it already implicitly does but mainstream media prefer not to consider). Faber clarifies the idiocy of the discussions, "both parties want to spend, it's just on different things," with "the idiocies of government" having grown way too large, wasting money everywhere... the Democrats are "buying votes" and the Republicans funding the military complex. The debt-ceiling is merely a symptom of the problem, Faber concludes, that "government has grown disproportionately large and that retards economic growth."

UPDATE: *OBAMA SAYS REPUBLICANS MUST SET ASIDE SOME PARTISAN CONCERNS

Senator Harry Reid has a cunning new plan and says "we're getting closer," providing yet more hope that the US won't tip inauspiciously over the edge of the economic abyss. The latest rumored deal proposal, to be presented at the White House meeting at 3pm, includes automatic spending cuts, a framework for budget negotiations, extends the debt ceiling for 6-9 months, and funds the government through December at current sequester levels. Doing so, as AP reports, would punt the fight over whether to lock in 2014 sequestration levels at $967 billion until December. And by extending the debt ceiling until the middle of next year, it would put the issue in the center of the heated 2014 midterm elections. While this provided some short-term optimism, Obama was quick to remind the market that "it appears that has been some progress in the Senate in fiscal impasse negotiations and will see if it is real when he meets congressional leaders."

So the debt ceiling “we’re going to run out of money and the world ends” talk is not accurate. What is accurate is that playing games with your debt limits impacts other investors’ psychologies. And THAT is the real issue here.

• Headline of the day: U.S. Risks Joining 1933 Germany in Pantheon of Deadbeat Defaults (BBG)
• As Senate wrestles over debt ceiling, Obama stays out of sight (Reuters)
• The "Truckers Ride for the Constitution" that threatened to gum up traffic in the capital was a dud as of Friday afternoon (WSJ)
• China New Yuan Loans Top Estimates as Money-Supply Growth Slows (BBG)
• Vegetable prices fuel Chinese inflation (FT)
• China Slowing Power Use Growth Points To Weaker Output Data (MNI)
• London Wealthy Leave for Country Life as Prices Rise (BBG)
• Gulf oil production hits record (FT)
• Every year like clockwork, analysts start out bizarrely optimistic about future results, then “walk down” their forecasts  (WSJ)
• Weak Exports Show Limits of China’s Growth Model (WSJ)

In a world devoid for the past two weeks and certainly for foreseeable future of most US economic data (this week we get no CPI, Industrial Production and New Home Sales among others), markets are now reliant on China for an indication of how the economy is doing, which is why this weekend's weaker than expected Chinese exports (ignoring the fact that China trade data is largely made up) and higher than expected consumer price inflation (driven by higher vegetable prices), even as new yuan loans soared to CNY787 billion, well above the CNY675 billion estimate despite broader M2 slowing from 14.7% in August to 14.2% in September, means the Chinese economy is once again in a vice and following the summer's liquidity driven boost, is set to roll over. Which in turn means that once again the PBOC is flying blind: unable to inject more liquidity without risking broader inflation, while most indicators are already rolling over. In short, ugly and certainly rolling over Chinese economic indicators for the market to mull over on Columbus day, even though all this will be promptly forgotten once the Washington debt ceiling song and dance resumes and the now traditional 10:30 am surge grips the algotrons as the latest set of "imminent deal" rumors is unleashed.

It’s a Myth that the U.S. Has Never Defaulted On Its Debt

November 14th – not October 17th – is the key date for Doomsday watchers to circle on their calendars. For 66 years, Goldman Sachs notes, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has published a Doomsday Clock showing how close the world is to global catastrophe. On November 14th the committee will vote again whether to adjust the minute hand on the proverbial clock face. However, most market participants characterize October 17th as the fiscal Doomsday when the federal government hits its debt ceiling. It seems, for now (though this evening's futures market suggests a little more fear), that everyone assumes a deal will be reached to avert disaster just as nuclear Armageddon has been avoided since 1947.

Enter Goldman Sachs, whose Alex Phillips just said that: "If a longer-term resolution can be reached over the coming days, we would expect the downside risk from the fiscal debate to be limited to about 0.5pp in Q4, compared to our current growth forecast of 2.5%." In other words, pro forma for the 14 day government shutdown (and continuing) Goldman has just cut its Q4 GDP forecast from 2.5% to 2.0%. And to think this was the year that Jan Hatzius was desperately praying his optimism (for the 4th year in a row - and who can possibly forget Hatzius boosting its Q4 2010 GDP estimate from 4% to 5.8% - and the same every year since) would finally be rewarded. Sorry Jan: we were right again, you were wrong. Again.

With the House, as previously reported, now out of the debt ceiling negotiations, it is all up to the Senate to reach some compromise with 4 days until the midnight of the first X-Date. Unfortunately, or maybe fortunately, at least going into Monday, there is no deal, and not even a glimmer of what a potential deal may look like. Yes, Democrat leader Harry Reid did said on Sunday that he had a "productive conversation" with Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell on efforts to reopen the U.S. government and raise the federal debt limit, Reuters reports, but that's as far as it gets. "Our discussions were substantive, and we'll continue those discussions. I'm optimistic about the prospects for a positive conclusion to the issues before this country today," Reid said in remarks on the Senate floor. He did not provide any specifics of the conversation. Democrats and Republicans remain divided over spending levels in any temporary government-funding measure.

If Congress doesn't raise the debt ceiling soon, the U.S. government won't be able to pay its debts. Here's NPR's simple (and complete) illustration to who the government owes money to — all the holders of U.S. Treasury debt, broken down by category and by how much government debt they hold. It would appear the government's ponzi self-financing may be exposed for all to see... (and is it anywonder the Chinese are complaining?)

We assume it is a coincidence that on the day in which we demonstrate China's relentless appetite for gold, driven by what we and many others believe is the country's desire to have a call option on a gold-backed reserve currency when the time comes, just posted in China's official press agency, Xinhua, is an op-ed by writer Liu Chang in which he decries the "US fiscal failure which warrants a de-Americanized world" and flatly states that the world should consider a new reserve currency "that is to be created to replace the dominant U.S. dollar, so that the international community could permanently stay away from the spillover of the intensifying domestic political turmoil in the United States." Of course, if China were serious, and if the world were to voluntarily engage in such a (r)evolutionary reserve currency transition, then all Magic Money Tree theories that the only thing better than near infinite debt is beyond infinite debt, would promptly be relegated to the historic dust heap of idiotic theories where they belong.

We now appear to be close to the day of reckoning that likely determines what the coming weeks/months hold.

• Do we step back from the brink, see our politicians reach an agreement and carry on? Although to be fair, in 2011 the break below supports that led to accelerated losses in the equity markets actually took place once an agreement was reached.
• Do we break lower thereby causing the negative feedback loop/concerns that feed back into the economy, kill any possibility of tapering and sees the Fed re-establish its dovish credentials (Like 1998 and 2011)
• Do bond yields push higher after an agreement thereby increasing concerns about a negative feedback loop into the economy, housing, emerging markets, Europe (Like 2011) and ultimately the equity market?

Time will tell us the answers to the above questions, but whatever happens, Citi notes it looks like the price action in the near future is at pivotal levels that need to be watched closely.

Normally Treasury Bills are not something discussed around the dinner table or hotly debated on the business news channels. As UBS notes, the fact that the Tbill market has become the focus of attention is an ominous sign, and indicates that the stalemate over the debt ceiling could have profound effects. While TED-Spreads, and financial CDS were the key indicators in 2008, now we must watch money fund flows, and Tbill forwards. In a sense, the Tbill market is the proverbial canary in a coal mine for the US financial system. The canary is not yet back in good health.