With political uncertainty near record highs (but equity market uncertainty near record lows), Goldman's Jan Hatzius analyzes the four biggest political risks receiving the most attention from market participants (and stand to create the most chaos if the priced for perfection market is disappointed).
"No, we won’t be able to balance the budget this year, but we’re working on trying to get it to balance within the ten-year budget window, which is what Republicans in the House and the Senate have traditionally done the last couple of years."
"Anyone buying stocks based on confidence that the Fed has their back notwithstanding Wednesday’s action surely deserves the pounding just ahead. What Yellen had to say doesn’t even reach the status of babbling; it was flaming incoherence..."
Attempting to spend a nation to prosperity using borrowed money is not without consequences. In the short run, an illusion of wealth can be erected. In the long run, that illusion slips into decay and disrepair.
Barack Obama pushed things right to the brink a couple of times, but he was savvy enough politically to never let things go over the edge. Now it is Trump’s turn, and somehow he has got to find a way to get the debt ceiling raised without making extremely deep compromises that would gut the rest of his agenda. And he had better get to work on this quickly, because time is running out and the clock is ticking…
Gold’s biggest 1 day percentage gain since September 2016. Fade out Fed “jibber jabber.” Focus on still ultra low rates (see chart). Rising rates bullish for gold as seen in 1970s and 2003 to 2007 (see table)
Logic and current trends suggest that declining output growth accompanied by higher prices will begin hitting economies and facing policy makers in the coming years. Markets should begin sniffing out this stagflationary macroeconomic setup this year.
As the vulture pundits in the mainstream media pick apart hollow political scandals, the essential bankruptcy of the federal government looms just ahead. The national debt is creeping toward 20 trillion dollars, and the United State’s largest problem is once again staring the world in the face.