Debt Ceiling

Forget about the headlines, the most concerning statement from the entire circus of Jack Lew's hearing was his comment that the world counts on the US to be responsible. It seems that boat sailed a long time ago. The following succinctly summarizes the key aspects of his testimony and the Q&A. As a reminder, Lew noted "Obama did negotiate," denied the chance of "prioritization," and warned that other nations appear ready (and somewhat excited) for the US to falter.

As we noted last night, finally, it appears that the resolution to the debt ceiling, now due to hit in one week, will be a 6 week can kicking to late November, early December so the whole thing can repeat again, while the government shut throughout according to the GOP proposal, which also means no nonfarm payroll reports for September, October and November:

• *HOUSE REPUBLICANS SAID CONSIDERING CLEAN 6-WEEK DEBT-LIMIT BILL
• *REPUBLICAN LEADERS TO PRESENT PROPOSAL TO MEMBERS TODAY
• *U.S. GOVERNMENT WOULD REMAIN CLOSED UNDER HOUSE PROPOSAL

The USD and Treasury Yield are soaring, US equities are waking up slowly to the news but T-Bills remain unimpressed for now. Bear in mind this was originally reported on October 5th.

Nearly exactly five years after Hank Paulson appeared before Congress dangling a 3 page term sheet ultimatum warning it was his way or the apocalypse, it is time for the sequel. Since we all love the smell of a good Mutually Assured Destruction spectacle in the morning. Which is why we can't wait for Treasury Secretary Jack Lew's presentation before the Senate Finance Committee discussing the Debt Limit, in which he will rain fire and brimstone on anyone who suggests that the Treasury can enter the X-Date without a debt ceiling deal in place, and will most certainly seek to crucify anyone who points out the logical, namely that payments can be prioritized and interest expense is a fraction the revenue the Treasury brings in, and that the end of the world would be nigh should the US actually be forced to live within its means.

While there is hope that DC will engage in its favorite, can-kicking activity any minute and if not resolve then at least push back the funding and debt ceiling stalemate by a few weeks, the reality is that without a deal in seven days, there may be no cash to pay down maturing Bills starting with the October 17 issue whose yield soared to nearly 50 bps yesterday. The reason for the capitulation as was revealed yesterday, is that various money market funds such as Fidelity's have been selling all paper around the X-Date. This morning the contagion surrounding the use of Bills as collateral has crossed the Pacific, following news that the "Hong Kong’s futures and options market operator will require traders to put up more collateral when using some Treasury bills to back their positions, citing concern that the U.S. is at risk of a default." In other words, as we forecast on Monday, the debt-ceiling confusion in cash-land has now openly engulfed the repo market, which only makes the states of a debt deal that much higher. Because if the repo, $2.5 trillion money market, and subsequently, the entire $80 or so trillion custodian market freeze up, what happens next will make Lehman seem like a quiet walk in the park.

• The ice breaks; fiscal talks set (The Hill); Ryan steps up to shape a deal (The Hill), as predicted here yesterday
• Republicans consider short-term U.S. debt ceiling increase (Reuters)
• Shutdown Standoff Shows Signs of a Thaw (WSJ)
• JPMorgan Clients in Cash as Schwab’s Options Hedge Default (BBG)
• Mitch McConnell, Senate GOP search for way out (Politico)
• Meredith Whitney Winds Down Brokerage Unit After Setting Up Fund (BBG)
• Washington Budget Chaos Keeps Fed Rates Low for Longer (BBG)
• Chinese Premier Outlines US Debt Concerns (FT)
• Saudis brace for 'nightmare' of U.S.-Iran rapprochement (Reuters)
• Obama Urges Action on Yellen’s Fed Nomination (Reuters)
• Libyan Prime Minister Ali Zidan Freed After Kidnap (WSJ)

As reported previously, the latest meme surrounding the D.C. impasse is that Obama is suddenly willing to compromise on a short-term, supposedly six-week funding and debt ceiling extension, on the verge of his latest talks with republicans at the White House scheduled for this morning, as previously floated by the GOP. Throw some additional headlines such as "Ryan steps up to shape a deal" (in line with what we predicted yesterday) and "The ice breaks; fiscal talks set", by The Hill, and "GOP quietly backing away from Obamacare" from Politico, and one can see why futures are in breakneck soaring mode this morning, driven as usual by the two main JPY cross (USD and AUD), the first of which is less than 100 pips now away from being Stolpered out.  So will a compromise deal finally emerge 7 days ahead of the first X-Date, or will a last minute snag once again derail the (non)-negotiations? We will know quite soon.

As Warren Buffet openly states that he believes that a default on US debt will be catastrophic and that lawmakers in Congress need to get their act together and get the federal government back to work by passing the budget we might well wonder if it’s just for show or if he really believes that.

House Dems emerge from meeting with Pres Obama reaffiming determination to bring Govt shutdown to an end.

— Mark Knoller (@markknoller) October 9, 2013

Many market-watching prognosticators have dismissed the spike in T-Bill rates on the basis of "well it's only a few pennies, why worry..." missing entirely the 50-100x leverage in TRS and the almost inifinite rehypothecation risk implicit in a missed payment (even if temporary). It seems, despite these views, Fidelity Investments  - the largest manager of money-market mutual funds - said, according to AP, that it no longer holds any US government debt maturing around the time of the nation could hit ist borrowing limit. Action - it would seem - speaks louder than words.

Remember, every single Treasury and T-bill out there is utilized as collateral for millions of Dollars worth of trades. So if the big financial institutions begin to refuse to accept some US debt as collateral based on the perceived risk of a deb ceiling debacle there could quickly be capital call in the market similar to what happened when Lehman failed.

Curious why algos suddenly are buying because other algos are buying because other algos are buying, pushing the S&P higher by 10 point in virtually no time? Simple. It appears at least one vacuum tube decided to scan the news archive, and fell upon the Politico story from 7 AM Eastern which said that the Republicans and Democrats had met in a secret meeting.

The Bill bust up may be causing ripples and major headaches for short-term funding liquidity, and as of today for repos and money markets, but for now at least, the tranquility on any point in the curve longer than a month is untouched. Case in point, the just completed 10 Year auction in which the Treasury sold $21 billion in a reopening of the VS6 CUSIP, at a yield that was well through the When Issued 2.666%, pricing at 2.657%, even if this price was hit following a gradual sell off in the 10 Year throughout the day. The Bid To Cover of 2.58 was somewhat concerning as it was well below last month's 2.86 and below the 12 month average of 2.78, bet better than the auctions from August, July and June. The internals were also less than remarkable, with Dealers taking down 40.2%, Indirects ending up with 38.6%, and Directs left with 21.2%, all in line with the TTM average so hardly remarkable. Altogether a quiet auction and one that confirm so far at least, the debt ceiling concerns are solely limited to the 1 Month Bill end of the treasury curve.

Late last night, Paul Ryan wrote a WSJ op-ed titled "Here's How We Can End This Stalemate" in which some believe he provided the framework for what a possible fig leaf offering on the government shutdown and debt ceiling compromise could look like. While on the surface this may be grounds for optimism, the reality is that Ryan, whose entire proposal is based on the assumption that Obama is willing to negotiate which for now he has shown repeatedly he won't, merely fell back to his traditional "grand bargain" talking point made so clear during the Mitt Romney presidential campaign. What Ryan does suggest is yet another angle to a common bargaining position, one which would be certainly more palatable to Obama: because in order to get both parties happy and reach a compromise, all that would happen is for various long-term assumptions would be changed, with zero actual, real current impact - something politicians are good at, because it does not generate an adverse impact during their tenure (afterwards, it becomes someone else's problem).

It is worth remembering that Goldman, to much fanfare and media attention, “told clients” in November 2007, to sell gold. On November 29, 2007, Goldman recommended that investors sell gold in 2008 and it named the strategy as one of its ‘Top 10 Tips’ for the year.