Debt Ceiling

Presenting America's New Debt Ceiling: $19,600,000,000,000

The only certain outcome from the melodramatic debt ceiling fight over the next several days, is the following: the US is about to have a brand spanking new debt ceiling, one that should last it until March of 2017: $19,600,000,000,000.

Paul Ryan Seals Republican Support, Declares Bid For House Speaker

One week ago he said he has no interest in the Speaker position, but so much can change in one week. Moments ago Paul Ryan sent out a letter to the GOP announcing he would run for speaker of the house. And since he had previously said said he would only enter the speaker’s race if he could lock up support from three wings of the fractious party, in the space of just 3 days this week, he appears to have done just that.

US Treasury Postpones Next Week's 2-Year Treasury Auction Due To Debt-Ceiling Roadblock

Moments ago the US Treasury promptly removed any latent optimism that this latest debt ceiling crisis will somehow be magically fixed on its own after it announced that it would postpone the two-year note auction previously scheduled for Tuesday, as the impasse over the debt limit constrains the nation’s borrowing. “Due to debt ceiling constraints, there is a risk that Treasury would not be able to settle the two-year note”

Futures Firm On Hope Draghi Will Give Green Light To BTFD

After yesterday's dramatic late day market rout catalyzed by the tumble in the biotech sector in general, and Valeant in particular, and foreseen in its entirety by Gartman who went bullish just hours before, this morning US equity futures and European stocks have recouped some losses on the recursive, and traditional, hope that Mario Draghi will say something to push risk higher when he speaks in 2 hours at the ECB's press conference in Malta. And yet, just like Yellen a month ago, Draghi faces the paradox of reflexivity that after years of being ignored, is the "new thing" in town: how does he intervene and demonstrate he is readier than ever to set up stimulus, without panicking investors over euro area’s health.

Traders Dump T-Bills Despite Lew's "Hope" US Avoids Crisis

The bloodbathery in Treasury Bills continues this morning with11/12/15 Bills pushing up to 14bps (from 0bps on Friday). Despite the "hopes" of Treasury Secretary Jack Lew that the US avoids a crisis, he warns "there's no margin for error" and with GOP Leadership talks still ongoing (as Paul Ryan lays down his demands), it appears markets are not taking any chances for now.

Bond Market Begins To Panic: Bids For 4-Week Bill Auction Crater, Yield Spikes

Less than two weeks ago, when previewing the upcoming debt ceiling battle which is shaping up to be far more contentiously than most expected, we said to "keep an eye on T-Bill yields for the turning point when the market decides this situation is becoming serious." And while things turned "serious" yesterday, moments ago the bond market officially entered into "panic" territory.

WTF Chart Of The Day: Debt-Ceiling-Driven Panic-Selling In T-Bills Sparks Buying Frenzy In Stocks

With less than 2 weeks left until the "debt ceiling accident" that Jack lew has warned about, T-Bills (maturing beyond Nov 3rd) are being dumped wholesale. Oct 29th Bills are trading -1bps but Nov 12th Bills are up 6bps at 12bps, the 1-month WI is at 16bps. Of course, equity markets will be the last to notice and algos appear to be seeing this as a panic-buying-opportunity.

Traders Are Panic-Selling T-Bills After Jack Lew Warns Of "Terrible" Debt Limit Accident

The one-month-ish Treasury Bills that mature November 18th are collapsing. Following comments this morning by Treasury Secretary Jack Lew that the US will run out of cash on November 3rd and his warning of a "terrible" debt limit accident, the 11/18/15 T-Bills have seen yields explode from -1bp to 7bps - an unprecedented 8bps spike as investors panic-sell beyond the deadline. WI 1month bills are over 11bps! As Barclays Joseph Abate warns, "This is the beginning...Nervousness is ratcheting higher”

NIRP Goes To Nippon: Japan Auctions 1 Year Paper At Most Negative Yield On Record

What is surprising about Japan is that unlike most of Europe, which has opted to adopt a Negative Interest Rate Policy, or NIRP,  is that Japan whose monetary policy became a basket case years ago - Japan is currently on QE10 - it still hasn't thrown in the "all-in" towel and announced negative rates. This may have officially changed yesterday, when in an auction that flew deep under the radar, Japan sold 1 Year (not 3 Month) Bills at the most negative yield in history, or -0.0418%, nearly doubly more negative the -0.0252% yield on the September 16 auction.

Weekend Reading: Weighed, Measured And Found Wanting

"Since Washington doesn't understand what went wrong in 2007 and 2008, so the Fed, the White House and Congress are recreating the very same conditions for another financial bubble. If it pops, we could replay the same devastating effects as occurred during the first bubble in 1999 and 2000.