Debt Ceiling

Business as usual on Wall Street but it won't be enough to save pensions...

With increasing chatter that no matter what Congress agrees on, if anything, vis-a-vis the debt ceiling, the preemptive spin has begun, with the first salvo coming out of UBS' George Bory who has released a note "The difference between downgrade and default" which paints a very placid picture of the consequences of the US losing it AAA rating. Coming from a credit strategist, Bory naturally looks at the tightly confined consequences of such an event within the rates space exclusively without any mention of other cross-linked securities. In UBS' view, we would expect i) 10-yr yields rise 20-25bps, ii) a steeper yield curve, especially long end, iii) Treasuries underperform bunds and other highly rated sovereign debt iv) Vol term structure inverts further, v) Corporate spreads tighten, especially at long end, vi) Bank credit quality re-rated lower. Altogether not too bad. The problem is that there are a few trillion in money market related rating triggers which would grind to a halt the repurchase of paper of a sovereign that no longer has the AAA mark, resulting in our opinion in a dramatic crunch in short-term liquidity, and set the stage for a Lehman-like monetary system paralysis. But that is a topic for another day. Since today reality is to be ignored (see "transitory default"), here is why according to UBS America can simply call Moody's and S&P's bluff.

A rather sobering report out from S&P, which has no other function than to tighten the screws even more on those who prudently are holding out against extending the debt ceiling. As for S&P: please explain to US how 120% debt/GDP is better than 100% debt/GDP, and thus more worthy of a AAA rating? Please. Because we must be bloody stupid: "In our view, the need for an agreement to raise the debt ceiling before it is breached--which the government has said would occur on or around Aug. 2--remains a major risk to the U.S. economy, in our view. Because we see a real risk that efforts to reduce future deficits may meaningfully miss the targets that Congressional leaders and the White House have discussed, we put the likelihood that we would lower the long-term rating on the U.S. within the next three months and potentially as soon as early August--by one or more notches, into the 'AA' category--at about 50-50."

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The EURUSD is pushing higher in the low volume afterhours session after a Reuter report that the German and French delegations have reached an agreement over Greece. Since this is about the 6th "pricing in" of Greek bailout, we can't help but be extremely skeptical that this short-lived bounce will promptly reverse especially since the USD is about to pop on comparable good news to come out from the Obama meeting with Boehner.

Time for the hourly update on the Congressional soap. The Hill reports that "Congressional Democratic leaders are headed back to the White House on Wednesday for more talks on raising the debt ceiling. White House press secretary Jay Carney announced House and Senate Democratic would meet with Obama at the White House at 2:50 p.m. Obama called Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.), Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on Tuesday night." It adds that after the release of a new proposal Tuesday by the bipartisan Senate Gang of Six, Obama told reporters it was time for leaders to "talk turkey" and work to reach a deal. And while there has been a recent increase in voices against the $3.7 trillion "plan", the fate of the McConnell fall back plan, which as expected is the most likely to pass as it is completely toothless, is also looking shaky:"House Democratic leaders are attacking Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-Ky.) debt-ceiling fallback plan, characterizing it as a political ruse intended to scapegoat Democrats and taint them at the polls. “I’m not a fan of the McConnell proposal,” Rep. Chris Van Hollen (Md.), the senior Democrat on the House Budget Committee, said Tuesday during a press briefing in the Capitol. “It’s designed to protect mostly Republican members of Congress from taking responsibility for votes that they’ve already made." How this plan makes sense in light of Obama's earlier statement that the House would not compromise a debt ceiling plan based on one time increases to the limit, without a long-term debt ceiling extension is unclear, nor is it clear how any of these plans which are simply window dressing will pass muster from the rating agencies, where even Fitch earlier announced any plan would have to be comprehensive for no downgrade of the US to occur. Translated: the CRAs need more stuffing for the Christmas stockings.

The Bloomberg Chart of the Day (see above) shows how gold in dollars is correlated with increases in the U.S.’s debt limit, particularly in the last 10 years. Julia Yoo, a Seoul-based analyst at Korea Investment told Bloomberg that “gold’s rally is quite explosive.” “Increasing the debt limit means you print more dollars, which will weaken the dollar and consequently lift the gold price,” adding to gains this year that were driven by demand from countries including China.”

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Those hoping for some relative distribution in this rally will have to do what they always do on up days: wait until a down day. The chart below shows cumulative divergence from average volume. Ever since yesterday's late ramp on hopes for yet another European solution through today's so called debt ceiling resolution, when we have seen 30 points surge in the ES on no actual news, the volume has been well below average for two consecutive days in a row. Yes: the move is once again based on marginal churning courtesy of HFT vacuum tubes and the occasional day trader. Everyone else has already tapped out their margin account.

First Spain's Castilla La Mancha region was the first to announce it had "discovered" major debt ceiling holes, now it is Portugal's turn. The Telegraph informs that "Portugal's new leader Pedro Passos Coelho has told the nation to brace for further austerity measures after his government discovered a "colossal" €2bn (£1.7bn) hole in the public accounts left by the outgoing Socialists." And while it answers our immediate question "who's next" it certainly does not provide an answer to who's last. Because as more and more governments are changed, more and more such "discoveries" will be announced, but luckily for Europe (and then America), there are far more pressing issues that distract the populace than discoveries than in the past would have led to popular backlash. Concurrently, Portugal joins Greece in indicating that beggars can most certainly be choosers: "Mr Passos Coelho also appeared to caution the European authorities that his government will not tolerate heavy-handed interference in the country. "We want to take part in an ambitious European project and make our contribution so Europe can confront its problems in the most ambitious way, but as prime minister I will not stand by and let Europe govern Portugal," he told a party gathering." And while short-termism reigns across capital markets at least for a few more hours, the reality is that there is simply not enough money out there to plug each and every hole as it is uncovered. But that will take the market a few weeks to months to realize.

Since we don't have minutely Europe headlines, instead we get US ones. And here is the first official reaction to the McConnell plan from a rating agency. Since this Plan B is far more concrete than the Gang of Whatever Plan, Moody's will have absolutely the same to say about the previously noted 5 page talking points memo.

Politico reports that the latest development in the constantly changing and oh so theatric "struggle" to find a compromise on how to raise the debt ceiling by $2.5 trillion, is one which will not only not do anything to fix the deficit situation but will in fact set America back, as a key part of the "savings" will come precisely from the same change in the definition of inflation courtesy of the Chained CPI introduction, which the democrats previously blasted, and for good reason: because it will be an implicit theft from Social Security. Recall that the last time this was proposed the AARP started foaming in the mouth within minutes. The broad strokes of the plan are as follows: "The once moribund Senate “Gang of Six” regained new life Tuesday after Oklahoma Sen. Tom Coburn unexpectedly rejoined the group — and more senators are now coalescing around a new proposal that would cut the debt by as much as $3.7 trillion over the next decade.  According to a copy of the plan, obtained by POLITICO, the group would impose a two-step legislative process that would make $500 billion worth of cuts immediately followed by a second bill to create a “fast-track process” that would propose a comprehensive bill aimed at dramatically restructuring tax and spending programs. The plan calls for changes to Social Security to move on a separate track, and establishes an elaborate procedure for considering the measures on the floor." And here is the kicker: "The $500 billion in cuts would come from a range of sources, including shifting to a new consumer price index to make cost-of-living adjustments to Social Security." Care to wager what the bulk of this $500 billion will come from: that's right - social security, whose deliverable obligations will plunge as suddenly the inflation variable in the actuarial calculation will very mysteriously be cut courtesy of Senate-endorsed theft.

• Moody's suggests U.S. eliminate debt ceiling (Reuters)
• ECB weighing eurozone default options (FT)
• Debt Deal Search Intensifies (WSJ)
• Obama struggles to get Wall Street funding (FT)
• Euro Zone Sees 3 Options For Private Role in Greece (Reuters)
• Germany Says It's Confident EU to Reach Agreement on Second Greek Bailout (Bloomberg)
• ECB's Mersch-Inflation risks to upside, eyeing developments‎ (Reuters)
• Lockhart: Fed could keep rates low "much longer" (Reuters)
• Greece Seeks Advisers for Privatization (WSJ) - there's always Goldman

Gold has fallen in most currencies today and is trading at USD 1,603, EUR 1,130, GBP 995 and CHF 1,315 per ounce. Gold is 0.3% higher in Swiss francs again today after the last two weeks of deepening turmoil saw gold rise in the Swiss franc. Many market participants are expecting a correction in gold at the psychological level of $1,600/oz. This is quite possible given corrections often take place after reaching record round number highs. Also, corrections tend to happen when there is a lot of noise in the press and media. Gold’s record high in all currencies is front page news in the Financial Times today which would make any contrarian nervous that the recent move is overdone. However, coverage remains very muted in much of the non specialist financial press – many of whom barely covered or did not even mention the new record gold highs. Gold at $1,603/oz is only 2.5% above the recent record nominal price seen on April 29th at $1,563.70/oz. Thus, gold has had a two month correction and consolidation prior to reaching the new nominal highs over $1,600/oz. Therefore, it is quite possible that gold targets the next psychological level of $1,700/oz, prior to any meaningful correction. Higher prices in euros and pounds are especially likely, prior to a correction. It is worth remembering that in the 1970’s gold bull market, gold had annual appreciation of some 30% per annum and had moves of over 73% in 1973 and 66% in 1974 (see table above). Gold only went parabolic in 1979 when it rose by over 140%.

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