Debt Ceiling

Shutdown Now 6th Longest In History (Longer Than Average Of All Others)

The consensus meme remains that a US government shut-down will have minimal economic effect if it is not protracted. Well, the US government shutdown is now 8 days old. To put things in perspective there have been 17 previous shutdowns through history and this is now the equal 6th longest - the average being 6.47 days.

Goldman: "Today Was The First Day That Concerns About The Debt Ceiling Really Started To Be Felt"

If Obama's intention in his CNBC interview was to get Wall Street to start selling, then congratulations: today he finally made some headway. However, he will have to do more before the capitulation dump we saw in the summer of 2011 pushes the House, and Boehner to finally fold (in the case of the latter, for the last time). Much More. Goldman's Sales and Trading desk explains: "Today was the first day that concerns about the debt ceiling really started to be felt."

At Least Now It's Obvious Who's In Charge

It’s clear to everyone by now that the government of the largest country in the world is careening towards default in just over 200 hours. Yet curiously, even though the US government’s completely ridiculous, untenable fiscal situation is a front page embarrassment for the entire world to see, markets have barely budged. A few very short-term rates have shot up, but for the most part, stocks are very close to where they were before the shutdown. Stocks and bonds haven’t moved because nobody cares what’s happening in the US government anymore. And that’s because every serious investor understands that the US government long since abdicated any economic power to the banking sector. Everyone knows that the Fed is going to keep printing money, ergo they’re going to keep sending markets higher. And this debt ceiling charade only proves it. The secret is out there in the open. And now it’s completely obvious who’s really in charge.

Now That The Trollin' Dollar Coin Is Back...

"Neither the Treasury Department nor the Federal Reserve believes that the law can or should be used to facilitate the production of platinum coins for the purpose of avoiding an increase in the debt limit" Anthony Coley, spokesman for the Treasury Department.

Obama Warns "No Magic Bullets", Exploring "All Default Contingencies"

In an ominous supplication to the fact that a deal may not be coming President Obama admitted that his administration is "exploring all contingencies on the debt limit." We assume, given his dismissal of the 14th Amendment and the idiocy ("there are no magic bullets" to avoid default) of the trillion-dollar-coin and premium-bond issuance to the Fed, this implies - unlike the ECB - that they are conceding it is possible we cross the "X" date. His remarks were a perfect rehash of everything he has said before... unless the Republicans stop demanding 100% of what they want and give him 100% of what he wants, he will not negotiate. In Summary: no negotiation with extremists holding hostages

US Runs Out Of Cash As Soon As October 22 Revised BPC Forecast Shows

The BPC, whose initial analysis of the US default has become the staple "go-to" analysis for Treasury cash obligations and key events in the day surrounding and following the X-Date, has released a new update on when the US runs out of money. The latest: October 22 - November 1. Which means that if it so desires, the GOP can and probably will delay a debt ceiling bargain until the last possible moment which may well be, appropriately enough, Halloween. In the meantime, the US Treasury now has about $40 billion in total cash on hand and available extraordinary measures and declining fast.

Bonds Now Expecting Worse Debt Ceiling Confrontation Than August 2011, Stocks - Not So Much

Amid the bluster of yet another press conference, equity markets chopped around jerking up and down 5 points at a time for the S&P 500. But one market, the Treasury Market, went only one way. While it is all too easy to watch the tickers and listen to the glib bloviation of any and all talking head exclaiming that there is no-way, zero-chance, totally unlikely, impossible that the US government would technically default - the Treasury-Bill market is less confident (10/17s +8.5bps to 22.5bps, 10/31s +7.5bps to 23.5bps). In fact, the T-Bill yield has now spiked massively more than during the 2011 Debt-Ceiling debate (and stocks - for now - have not).

Goldman Says Gold "Slam Dunk" Sell, Ready To Buy All Its Clients Have To Offer

Goldman, which is the hedge fund best known for originating prop order flow in the opposite direction of what its sellside "research" team tells its clients to do (see Tom Stolper), has never been clearer on gold: "Gold is slam dunk sell for next year because the U.S. economy will extend its recovery after lawmakers resolve stalemates over the nation’s budget and debt ceiling, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s Jeffrey Currie said." How the economy will expand, especially with the Fed supposedly tapering (even though everyone saw what happened to markets and the economy at the mere mention of "tapering" the last time around) and eventually ending QE - the only driver of upside market momentum in the past 5 years - was not discussed. What was, however, clear is that Goldman will continue buying all the gold its clients have to sell until the bailed out hedge fund's price target of $1,050/ounce is hit.

Earnings Season Starts With Government Still Shut; 9 Days Till The Debt X-Date

Markets are so obsessed by developments with the US debt ceiling, that absolutely nobody noticed that the Japanese Current Account (JPY152Bn, Exp. JPY520bn), Industrial Outuput in Spain (-2.0%, Exp. -1.6%), Factory Orders in Germany (-0.3%, Exp. +1.2%), Trade Balance in Germany (€13.1bn, Exp. €15.0 bn) and that the Jan-Aug tax revenue in Greece below expectations by 5.7%, all missed horribly, and that for all the talk of a European recovery (which was merely driven by a brief surge in Chinese credit spending making its way into the European pipeline) is once again fully and entirely premature. But with Congress on everyone's mind, even increasingly China and Japan, who cares about fundamentals: after all there is a Federal Reserve to mask the fact that nothing but liquidity injections matters. Even if that means a complete collapse in the actual economy as those separated from the Fed by one or more layers of banks, crash and burn.

Guest Post: Government Shutdowns, The Debt Ceiling And Gold

We strongly suspect that both government debt growth and money supply inflation will continue unabated – any pause will immediately bring about the kind of short term economic pain these policies have explicitly sought to prevent and will therefore be quickly reversed. It is not unlike the situation the revolutionary assembly of France found itself in during the late 18th century: when it issued new money, industry seemed to revive. As soon as it stopped, industry slumped again. And so it was decided to issue ever more money, until the entire scheme blew up. There can be little doubt that modern-day governments are on the road to a similar date with destiny – and lately the speed at which they travel toward it has increased markedly.