Debt Ceiling

"The Fed Is Holding A Hand Grenade In The USA Bunker"

"Troubles and portents of more trouble are stacking up as we approach the Ides of March zone of financial turmoil. You must surely surmise that a debt ceiling impact, a Federal Reserve interest rate hike, and the election of a Dutch anti-EU leader all scheduled for that one day are a good start on the greater unravel to follow."

Are We Witnessing The Weirdest Moment In Economic History?

"If you thought 2016 was weird, I suggest you get comfortable with the surreal because it is not going away anytime soon. 2017 is a veritable treasure trove of falling elevators... it seems to me that many of these events, stacked so closely together in the next few weeks, are not coincidental in their timing."

"Trump Trade" Or Just A $200 Billion Liquidity Illusion?

Since the election we’ve heard the rally in stocks characterized as a “Trump Trade” or a “reflation” trade. We think there is a really important element missing from this analysis that could change very quickly over the next several weeks.

Beware The Ides Of March

It is unfortunate that so many have forgotten what “investing” actually means. Given that investors have piled into the market since the beginning of the year, the question simply becomes who is doing the selling?

Great Expectations (Not)

This is what happens when societies (and individuals) can’t face the true quandaries of a particular moment in their history. All of their attention gets channeled into fantasy: spooks, sexual freakery, conspiracies, persecution narratives, savior fairy tales. It’s been quite a cavalcade of unreality for the past six months, with great entertainment value for connoisseurs of the bizarre - until you’re reminded that the fate of the nation is at stake.

This Is The Only Chart Americans Should Be Worrying About Right Now

While the stock market (and VIX) signal utter calm, signs of stress are very clear in America's money markets. With Treasury's cash balance plunging to just $108bn this week as the debt ceiling deadline looms, newly ensconced Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will be forced to order “emergency measures” to effectively buy more time for the government to pay its creditors and cover revenue shortfalls to keep the government operating.