Debt Ceiling

Is A US Default Imminent: Liquidation Panic Grips T-Bills Market

While the politicians and the mainstream media are playing down any concerns about the US debt ceiling, Treasury Bill market participants are seeing chaos as the yield curve has snapped across the Sept-Oct divide with panic-buying in bills that mature ahead of the September-end (Q3-end liquidity needs), and dumping of October bills.

Frontrunning: September 1

  • August Jobs Report Expected to Show a Slowdown in Hiring (WSJ)
  • Emotions Swell as Houston Begins Cleanup (WSJ)
  • Fuel shortages to hamper Labor Day travel (Reuters)
  • Harvey’s Made the World’s Most Important Chemical a Rare Commodity (BBG)
  • Economists Consistently Overestimate U.S. August Payrolls (BBG)

Weird Things Are Happening With Gold

Last week featured two unusual stories on gold - one strange and the other truly weird. These stories explain why gold is not just money but is the most politicized form of money. They show that while politicians publicly disparage gold, they quietly pay close attention to it.

Harvey Destruction Prompts Goldman To Cut Government Shutdown Odds

"Recent events have lowered the odds of a government shutdown or a delayed debt ceiling hike but have also increased the number of possible scenarios, complicating the legislative outlook over the next couple of months. At this point, we peg the probability of a shutdown in early October at 35%, down from our prior view of 50% over the last couple of weeks.""