Debt Ceiling

JPMorgan Closes Precious Metals Sell Recommendation, Goes "Tactically Overweight" Commodities

One of the most underreported sentiment shifts of the past week was JPM's announcement late on Friday, that the firm quietly went long commodities - specifically base metals and copper (in addition to energy) - and the firm also closed it "sell" (i.e., underweight) in precious metals. This is not surprising: we had noted the ongoing purchasing of gold by JPM over the past two month (in part to restore its depleted gold vault inventory) when the yellow metal not only stabilized but promptly entered a bull market, returning 20% in a short period of time. And as gold was rising, JPM was advising its clients to sell. It seems JPM now has more than enough gold stashed away, and as the September shock is set to unwind, even JPM may be seeking the safety of gold, and the usual other hard asset suspects, if and when events escalate out of control, resulting in another "risk off" phase.

Mapping The 7 "Risk" Horsemen Of The Sept-ocalypse

Ahead of September, historically the worst month for stocks, Deutsche Bank notes that volatility has picked up and corporate bond issuance has slowed. There are several possible risks over the next few weeks that could trigger a further escalation in market volatility...

"Explosive" September Straight Ahead

If you thought August had more than enough events to crush the best laid vacation plans of Wall Streeters and men, you ain't seen nothing yet. Presenting "explosive" September.

Gearing Up For September

September is likely to be dominated by a number of key event risks, in addition to ongoing uncertainty around the US growth outlook, the Fed’s reaction function and heightened EM volatility. We highlight the major events and likely market implications.

Bank Of America: "We Hope None Of These Three Shocks Reaches A Crisis Level"

"In the spring, the risks to growth seemed to be fading. The economy was weathering the fiscal shock. Politicians decided to delay battles over the budget and the debt ceiling, passing a continuing resolution to fund the budget through September and postponing the debt ceiling drop-dead date to some time in the fall. Meanwhile, financial markets in Europe had settled down, the European economy showed signs of improvement, and commodity prices were stable. In their June directive the FOMC made it official: “The Committee sees the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having diminished since the fall.” Unfortunately, we seem to be entering another of those periods of elevated risk. Three concerns are emerging."

- Bank of America

Pivotfarm's picture

There’s too much of a sameness about Japan and the USA today. The Land of the Rising Sun and good old Uncle Sam have been copying each other far too much and now it seems as if they are railroading on the same train to the Land of Debt.

Two Months And Counting To The Real Debt Ceiling D-Day

There has been much confusion in the past several months relating to the US debt ceiling, and specifically the fact that total debt subject to the limit has been at just $25 million away from the full limit since late May. As we explained first in January 2011, there is nothing sinister about this. Any time the Treasury hits its physical debt cap, it activates its available "emergency measures" which include such money releasing options as disinvesting the Civil Service Fund, Suspending reinvestment in the G-Fund, Selling securities from the Exchange Stabilization Fund, and others, which cumulatively free up around $300-$350 billion. In essence the "emergency measures" act like a revolving credit facility that is slowly but surely being drawn down. Add to that sporadic cash creation over the past few months from cash inflows from the GSEs and one can see why the US has been able to be in breach of the debt ceiling for as long as it has. And why it still has just under two months of capacity.

7 Year Treasury Auction Prices At Lowest Bid To Cover Since May 2009

If yesterday's auction started off as a 5 Year and ended up as a 7 Year reopening, today's 7 Year was just a 7 Year. That said, it was not pretty. Pricing at 2.221%, it was right on top of the When Issued, and yet it was another 18 bps higher than the 2.03% in July, and the widest since July 2011 or right before the first debt ceiling crisis. As the chart below shows, the black line is steepening quite a bit over the past 5 months as expected thanks to the Taper talk. But it was the Bid To Cover that was the real story, having rolled over a long time ago, peaking in mid-2011, and dropping moments ago to just 2.43. This was below the 2.54 from last month., well below the 2.66 TTM average, and the lowest Bid To Cover since the 2.26 in May of 2009.

Selloffnado: Perfect Macro Storm Clobbers Stocks

An ugly day all around...

30Y Treasury yield - biggest 4-day yield compression in 15 months
Dow Transports - biggest single-day loss in ~5 months (2nd worst in 11 months)
Nasdaq - 2nd worst day in 10 months
AAPL - worst day in 3 months (2nd worst day of 2013)
USDJPY - biggest gain in JPY in 10 weeks
WTI - biggest single-day gain in 10 months
Financials - worst day in 10 months

In no particular order: Weak (and strong) US data (good or bad news?), War, Taper (Treasuries 'special'), Debt Ceiling, German elections, New Fed Chairman, imploding developing markets and collapsing global currencies... (S&P 500's first close <100DMA in 2013) it is on... (oh and S&P 500 futures 2nd biggest volume day in 2 months)

Frontrunning: August 27

  • Opposition figure: major decisions on Syria expected within hours (Al Arabiya)
  • Syria challenges U.S. to "produce the evidence" that Assad regime launched chemical attack (CBS)
  • British PM says world must act on Syria, weighs response (Reuters)
  • U.S. Treasury to Hit Debt Limit in Mid-October (WSJ)
  • U.S. could look beyond U.N. Security Council in any Syria strike (Reuters)
  • Nasdaq, NYSE at odds on outage cause as SEC seeks facts (Reuters)
  • Ackman’s J.C. Penney Sale Ends Failed Saga to Agitate for Change (BBG)
  • Zandi, LaVorgna, Blinder, Rattner all is one con puff piece (BBG)
  • Best Buy Founder Schulze Plans Stock Sale to Diversify Assets (BBG) - "diversify assets" = dump overpriced junk
  • Zero Worship: Credit-Card Firms Compete With No-Interest Transfers (WSJ)
  • Len Blavatnik wins $50m in JPMorgan lawsuit (FT)
  • Danone Finds Yogurt’s All Greek as Oikos Chases Chobani (BBG)

What Keeps America Up At Night

Pervasive, unchecked spying on millions of Americans and NSA agents eavesdropping on exes? A war with Syria? Fed tapering? A US that has been at its debt ceiling for months? A looming spending fight? Markets halting for hours due to "glitches"? Even Donald Trump? Naaaaah. According to Google Trends, this is what keeps America "up" at night.

Pivotfarm's picture

US Bankrupt!

After the banks, after the city of Detroit it will be the USA that will be going bankrupt and filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. If only that were possible! But unfortunately it won’t be.