Debt Ceiling

Are the markets already front running a potential announcement of a third round of Quantitative Easing (QE 3)?   Maybe so.  We had expected QE3 at the end of last summer as the economy weakened substantially from the impact of the Japanese earthquake/debt ceiling debate/Eurozone crisis trifecta.  However, with political pressures running high due to the raging battle in Congress raising the debt ceiling there was little support from the public for further intervention.  Furthermore, with inflation, as measured by CPI, already outside of the Fed's comfort zone, the Fed opted to institute "Operation Twist" (O.T.) instead. With the Euro-Crisis on the broiler, another debt ceiling debate approaching, the U.S. economy struggling along as Europe slips into a recession and corporate earnings being revised down there are plenty of reasons for stocks to decline in price.  Yet, they have continued to inch up.  With short interest on stocks having plunged in recent weeks it certainly sounds like the markets are betting on something happening and soon.

Update:

• HOUSE TO VOTE JAN. 18 ON OBAMA'S DEBT-LIMIT INCREASE REQUEST

Two days ago we wondered how long it would take for Obama to restart the debt ceiling theater. Not that long it turns out.

• OBAMA SENDS CONGRESS REQUEST TO RAISE DEBT CEILING
• OBAMA NOTIFICATION STARTS 15-DAY CLOCK FOR CONGRESS TO VOTE

So with Congress in recess, will Obama succeed in passing another automatic vote using base trickery? The same Obama, who as recently as 3 hours ago warned Congress that any attempts to pass approval on the Keystone Pipeline without his involvement are "counterproductive"... In other news, America' new debt ceiling of $16.3 trillion, or 107% of GDP is now just a formality, about to be interrupted by a little circus clowning.

America may have breached its debt ceiling, but that is certainly not preventing it from issuing debt, placing another $21 billion in 10 Year bonds in a reopening, which priced 1.5 bps through the WI tail of 1.915% or at 1.90%. This is merely the latest record low yield in the history of the auction. The Bid To Cover came at 3.29: not a record, but certainly one of the top 5 highest. Oddly enough, while the Directs disappeared from yesterday's 3 Year auction, today they surged, coming at double last month's 8.4% at 17.4%, the highest since the August post-downgrade auction. Primary Dealers accounted for 44.3% with Indirects coming in at a very weak 38.3%. Still, the take home is that in the past two days, the US has raised over $50 billion in debt with no capacity, and instead is plundering from government retirement accounts, just like it did back in July 2011 at the first, but not last, debt ceiling theater. SSDD.At least we know what it takes to get new record low yields: just keep breaching the debt ceiling - guaranteed way to raise 30 Year debt at 0.00% in a few months.

As Zero Hedge reported first, the US is once again, in just 5 short months (see chart), back at the debt ceiling, with just $25 million in new debt issuance dry powder, or in other words, no space of more debt absent resorting to the same "technique" last seen in late July when the Treasury plundered from government retirement accounts in order to accommodate new debt, such as yesterday's issuance of 3 Year bonds, and today's 10 Year bonds. And as The Hill reported yesterday, Obama is expected to request that Congress allow the incremental and final $1.2 trillion debt expansion (of the $2.1 trillion total) within a few days. So it is all on autopilot right? Wrong. As Bank of America explains below, it is very likely that the US will not have a debt ceiling hike for at least a few weeks, meaning that while a debt hike will ultimately come, it will very soon be all the song in dance, potentially overtaking the GOP drama, coupled with the pillaging of government retirement accounts yet again and likely leading to more rating agency action as the US debt fiasco is once again brought front and center. And the last thing the market needs is to experience the August 2011 collapse which brought it to 2011 lows and sent it gyrating for 400 DJIA points daily, in essence breaking the market as noted previously. And the worst news is that even with $1.2 trillion in new debt capacity, the total amount is guaranteed to not last through 2013, and should tax withholdings dip as trends are already indicating on adverse year over year comps, the $1.2 trillion in new debt may be exhausted as soon as September, which at this point may be the only thing that derails an Obama reelection if indeed he is running against "Wall Street."

Not even an hour after we asked the question, The Hill gives us the answer: "The Obama administration will be asking Congress to raise the debt limit in the coming days, White House press secretary Jay Carney said on Tuesday. "I'm confident it will be executed in a matter of days, not weeks," he told reporters. The notification by the administration — which had been scheduled for last month — was delayed because Congress has been holding only pro forma sessions. The White House will be asking Congress to raise the U.S. borrowing limit by $1.2 trillion. The move would mark the third and final increase from the debt-ceiling deal reached last year by Congress." Of course, the optics of yet another debt-ceiling increase, even a preapproved one, are simply horrible during campaign season. But such is life. Here is the kicker though: the US has preapproval for $1.2 trillion in debt issuance, as per the August 2011 agreement. So far so good. The problem is that since then the US has issued $900 billion in debt in five short months! In other words, somehow the remaining buffer of just $300 billion, or a final debt ceiling of $15.5 trillion, is supposed to last the US until after the presidential election, because this topic flaring up just before Obama is due to hit the debate circuit will be reelection suicide. So our question is: how will the US, which has a gross debt issuance rate of over $100 billion per month on average, last for a year with just $300 billion in dry powder? And even if the $1.2 trillion count begins from the new request, it still means the new debt ceiling will be breached some time in August/September, as we expected last year when we did the calculation assuming a $180 billion gross issuance per month ($900 billion in 5 months). We can't wait to hear the OMB's explanation.

We may well have reached the point where every single bond auction has to be a new record in something, or else (the else being the point where a reversal in yields becomes self-sustaining with trillions and trillions of ZIRP cash sloshing around and the smallest increases in rates could wreak havoc within the entire system)... Today, the record in the just completed $32 billion 3 Year auction was the record high Bid To Cover, which came at an all time high, obviously, 3.73, compared to 3.624 before, and 3.314 last 12 auction average. The bond priced at 0.37% (44.86% allotted at the high), with the low yield coming at a tiny 0.276%. Naturally, there always is more than meets the eye, with the bulk of the demand coming from Dealers, who took down 56.1% in the never-ending game of repo-mediated ponzi, while Indirects were accountable for just 38.%, and Directs coming at a 2 year low of 5.3%: this should probably be a warning sign to some. Probably a far more important question is why the Treasury is issuing debt in the first place: as Zero Hedge first (and so far only) pointed out last week, the Treasury has, or rather had, a $25 million buffer before it breaches the ceiling - in other words no capacity for gross issuance (not even net of the $77 billion Fed remittance). Simply said, this means every auction means more plunder from government retirement accounts - a replay of what happened in late July. Obviously, at some point the president will make it a point to push the interim debt ceiling higher, just probably not before the state of the union speech.

One of the recurring analogues we have used in the past to describe the centrally planned farce that capital markets have become and the global economy in general has been one of a increasingly chaotic sine wave with ever greater amplitude and ever higher frequency (shorter wavelength). By definition, the greater the central intervention, the bigger the dampening or promoting effect, as central banks attempt to mute or enhance a given wave leg. As a result, each oscillation becomes ever more acute, ever more chaotic, and increasingly more unpredictable. And with "Austrian" analytics becoming increasingly dominant, i.e., how much money on the margin is entering or leaving the closed monetary system at any given moment, the same analysis can be drawn out to the primary driver of virtually everything: the inflation-vs-deflation debate. This in turn is why we are increasingly convinced that as the system gets caught in an ever more rapid round trip scramble peak deflation to peak inflation (and vice versa) so the ever more desperate central planners will have no choice but to ultimately throw the kitchen sink at the massive deflationary problem - because after all it is their prerogative to spur inflation, and will do as at any cost - a process which will culminate with the only possible outcome: terminal currency debasement as the Chaotic monetary swings finally become uncontrollable. Ironically, the reason why bring this up is an essay by Pimco's Neel Kashkari titled simply enough: "Chaos Theory" which looks at unfolding events precisely in the very same light, and whose observations we agree with entirely. Furthermore, since he lays it out more coherently, we present it in its entirety below. His conclusion, especially as pertains to the ubiquitous inflation-deflation debate however, is worth nothing upfront: "I believe societies will in the end choose inflation because it is the less painful option for the largest number of its citizens. I am hopeful central banks will be effective in preventing runaway inflation. But it is going to be a long, bumpy journey until the destination becomes clear. This equity market is best for long-term investors who can withstand extended volatility. Day traders beware: chaos is here to stay for the foreseeable future." Unfortunately, we are far less optimistic that the very same central bankers who have blundered in virtually everything, will succeed this one time. But, for the sake of the status quo, one can hope...

Whether it is strong-USD-based forward revenue reductions for US corporations, rear-view mirror-based fuel-cost implicit tax-cuts, or unsustainable savings rate reductions, the recent US data has created a plethora of 'this time is different' decoupling theorists. We discussed David Rosenberg's perspective on this unsustainability last week and now his old employer (Bank of America) is notably out with a rather negative note on the chances of this 'local' European problem becoming a global issue and impacting US growth through both trade and financial linkages. In their view, we will see a steady deceleration in growth this year while the consensus sees a pick up and by the spring these negative revisions (from sell-side economists) will weigh heavily on stock markets and support bonds. They sum it up succinctly: 'Enjoy the recent price action while it lasts.'

America may be $25 million away from breaching the interim debt ceiling, it may have well over 40 million people subsisting on food stamps, and we may be reading all about this "austerity" thing gripping the country, but it sure won't be impacting Federal workers, all millions and millions of them, if Obama has his way. According to Washington Post, the White House will propose a 0.5 percent pay increase for civilian federal employees as part of its 2013 budget proposal, according to two senior administration officials familiar with the plans." Well as long as the president is adamant about increasing taxes on what is left of America's upper middle class (and let's not forget that half of America pays no taxes at all) to pay for this, we see no way that this proposal will irritate the class-war divided United States even further. And yet we can't help but wonder: why a pay increased? Haven't we been brainwashed day after day how the only threat is deflation, that prices are not going up, that nobody actually needs food or gas, and that people should in fact be grateful for a pay cut?

It's simply amazing how quickly the US managed to hit its debt target, pardon, debt ceiling all over again...And now the Social Security Fund pillaging begins anew until Congress signs off on the latest interim debt ceiling increase.

While not news to Zero Hedge readers who knew about the final debt settlement of US debt about 10 days ahead of schedule, it is now official: according to the US Treasury, America has closed the books on 2011 with debt at an all time record $15,222,940,045,451.09. And, as was observed here first in all of the press, US debt to GDP is now officially over 100%, or 100.3% to be specific, a fact which the US government decided to delay exposing until the very end of the calendar year. We wonder, rhetorically, just how prominent of a talking point this historic event will be in any upcoming GOP primary debates. And yes, technically this number is greater than the debt ceiling but it excludes various accounting gimmicks. When accounting for those, the US has a debt ceiling buffer of... $14 billion, or one third the size of a typical bond auction.

Even if the European Lack of Union does, miraculously, come up with some short-term resolution of a mathematically unsolvable crisis (at its core, the problem is that there is simply far more debt than there are assets, let alone cash flow, period, end of story) suddenly the market's will refocus its attention on the question of our own intractable math: i.e., how will America, suddenly once again the "neo-decoupled" source of global growth (don't look now but the Shanghai Composite is at multi-year lows even post the bank bailout from two weeks ago so the "dynamo" sure won't be Beijing), proceed to lead the world out of its latest slump? The answer is simple - it won't. At least not according to Goldman Sachs, which once again focuses on what everyone so conveniently chooses to ignore - the complete fiasco that is America's fiscal situation. Here is a reminder: "The fiscal policy outlook is unusually uncertain, and this uncertainty will persist even after the “super committee” reaches a decision by its deadline roughly one month from today." The European math is not the only one that does not work: "Even if reforms are agreed to next month, further legislation will need to be passed next year to address the expiring 2001/2003 tax cuts and the potential constraint of the statutory debt limit (again). Some lawmakers may also want to intervene to alter the automatic spending cuts that would take effect in early 2013 if the super committee fails to reach its $1.2 trillion deficit reduction target." For those who enjoy solving insolvable problems: you take your 2.0% (tops) Q3 GDP, and cut it by 2.5%, and that's the growth rate in 2012. Why? "In FY2011, several temporary provisions added to the budget deficit. These included the payroll tax cut; emergency unemployment compensation; spending from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA), and expensing for corporate investment. Together, these account for almost 2.5 percentage points of GDP in FY2011." With the GOP dead set on making the president seem like an economic disaster, you can kiss these "temporary" boosts goodbye. And, the kicker, as far as the president is concerned, is that as Steve Jobs predicted, he most likely will not have a second run for one simple reason. "Based on our FY2012 deficit forecast along with non-deficit financing needs and accumulation of Treasuries in federal trust funds (which count toward the debt limit) borrowing authority might be exhausted by November or December of 2012, not long after the presidential election." Or, not long before the presidential election if the US continues to spend at the current rate. In which case, Jobs will be once again 100% spot on.

Earlier today we observed that absent immediate action by the House and Senate to enact the critical $500 billion debt ceiling expansion, the US would run out of Keynesian dry powder as soon as Monday. There is no longer a need to worry. According to the Hill, an attempt to sabotage the bankruptcy of America has failed after a Senate resolution to disapprove the $500 billion debt ceiling increase proposed by Mitch McConnell was voted down 45 to 52. As a reminder, "Under the debt-ceiling agreement reached in early August, the Obama administration was authorized to immediately raise the debt ceiling by $400 billion. Another $500 billion increase was authorized this month, although that could have been blocked if both the House and Senate approved resolutions expressing disapproval." The opportunity cost of passing the bill would have been an additional 10 hours of work tomorrow for the Senatorial millionaires for whom insider trading is legal: "Earlier in the day Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) threatened to hold the Senate open for up to ten hours on Friday to "dispose" of the resolution if it moved forward." As a result of this vote, a parallel bill in Congress is now moot even though it has not been voted on. This effectively greenlights the increase of the US debt ceiling from the current $14.694 to $15.194 trillion, or roughly 101% of GDP.

It is hard to believe that the last time the US had breached its debt ceiling was a whopping one month ago. Courtesy of much toil, tears and televized theater (not to mention fake compromises), the Obama administration managed to get an accordion-feature extension of the debt-ceiling-cum-target, whereby it is currently at $14.694 trillion, and can be extended in $500 billion increments, for a total of $1.5 trillion provided congress and senate do not vote down such an expansion. The reason we bring this up is because as the data below demonstrates, the US Treasury will breach its brand new debt ceiling... on Monday.

Remember when one month ago the US, to much pomp and circumstance, not to mention one downgrade,  announced a grand bargain raising the debt ceiling from $14.294 trillion to something much higher, with a stop gap intermediate ceiling of $14.694 trillion, or $400 billion more. Well, as of today, or less than a month since the expansion, total US debt is at $14.697 trillion. Yep - the total debt is again over the ceiling, which means the US debt increased by $400 billion in one month. Score one for fiscal prudence. And while the total debt subject to the limit is still slightly less, at $14.652, one week of Treasury auctions and will be time for Moody's to justify again why the US is a quadruple A credit.