Debt Ceiling

Last Thursday we attempted a rough estimation of how much the Treasury has been dipping, or as it is also known "disinvesting", into the G-fund and the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund (CSRDF). Courtesy of Stone Mountain, we now have a definitive number. Even we did not realize how bad it is: in a nutshell, since the debt ceiling breach in mid May, Tim Geithner has replaced one IOU (that of the Fed) with another (that of the Treasury) in the G Fund to the tune of $57 billion, and in the CSRDF of about $22 billion. In other words, retirement funds have seen a "disinvestment" of nearly $80 billion in the past 3 weeks just to make space for further funding of bloated government, defense spending, and healthcare benefits. But don't worry: Tim promises it shall all be well.

Update: As expected, debt ceiling does not pass.  Final vote:

• Nay (Republicans 236, Democrats 82), total: 318
  
• Yea (Republicans 0, Democrats 97), total: 97
  
• Not Voting (Republicans 3; Democrats 6); 9
  

As we reported first today, any minute now the Congress will pretend to vote on HR1954, a clean debt ceiling increase of $2.4 trillion to $16.7 trillion. This will not pass. Why Congress is doing this bullshit, and why the US debt ceiling is now nothing but a farce, is a question voters should ask themselves next time they vote for their representatives. Watch the tragicomedy live at C-Span below.

Today at 7:00 pm the House will hold a very symbolic vote on a $2.4 trillion debt ceiling increase. Symbolic because it is doomed from the beginning as every single republican will vote no. So why is it held? Supposedly it is to rekindle popular interest in the debt ceiling drama following several weeks of commercial interruptions (i.e., heavy lobbying), and to remind the public that America is still a "democracy." Below is Goldman's Alec Phillips with more:

Much has been speculated about what the possible impact on the fixed income market may be if the debt ceiling is breached. Few, however, have wondered about the impact of what the lack of a debt ceiling resolution would be on a market that one could argue is even more important: FX. Citi's chief currency strategist Stephen Englander takes a preliminary look at the implications of what this would look like. Englander admits that "a breach of the credit ceiling is priced in neither fixed income nor FX markets to any significant degree now", and proceeds to speculated that it is foreign exposure (recall that China has over $4 trillion in foreign financial assets) that would be most impacted by such an adverse development. To wit: "Our expectation is that the FX reaction to a
debt ceiling breach would be sharper and probably more permanent that
the FI reaction, because unhedged foreign investors will see another
layer of risk that can not be 'fixed' in the way that cash flows from
Treasuries can. The FX market reaction may not be catastrophic, given
the limit to the fixed income damage that is likely to be permitted to
emerge, but it would legitimately tax foreign investor patience and lead
to further USD dumping whenever the opportunity arises." Bottom line: the race to the garbage bottom between the USD, EUR and JPY continues in earnest, with nobody yet a solid favorite to win, er, lose first.

New home sales and speeches from several Fed officials. Even with the debt ceiling breached, and retirement funds tapped, it does not prevent the Treasury from issuing new bonds: $35 billion in 2 Years to be auctioned off at 1 pm. But never fear: Brian Sack will pump another $5-7 billion in our daily POMO.

The presumed default catastrophe driven by an inability to increase debt is precisely why it shouldn't be increased.

The only thing on today's light economic calendar is the FOMC’s April 26-27 meeting minutes, as the Fed proceeds to monetize bonds now that the debt ceiling has been reached. And meanwhile in Washington we get a debt limit discussion, two securitization-related events, and another energy vote that is expected to fail...

It's official: the US credit card has officially been maxed out, just as we predicted on Wednesday, and throughout Q1 and Q2. The United States is expected to reach the legal limit on its debt later on Monday and will start dipping into federal retirement funds to give the country more room to borrow, a Treasury official said. As Reuters reports further, The U.S. Treasury will settle $72 billion in maturing bonds on Monday, which will push the country right up against its $14.294 trillion borrowing cap, the official said. To all those who thought only the insolvent government of Ireland will plunder pension funds, our condolences.

The Financial Times reported on Saturday that “the sharp drop in gold and silver prices has stimulated a surge in buying from India in a sign that consumers in the world’s largest gold-buying country retain faith in the decade-long bull story for precious metals.” Chhabil Jain, a Mumbai silver trader told the Financial Times that “demand for silver bars was going through the roof” and that “many vendors were starting to run low on stocks”. “People are booking incredible amounts of silver as they see the current drop in prices as a great opportunity to buy more ... most are buying for pure investment,” he added. Bloomberg reports this morning that silver was the most traded commodity in April.

Lots of data with Empire Index, Capital Flows and the Housing market index on deck, but the biggest news everyone will be waiting for is the predicted debt ceiling breach, which should be formalized at 4:00 pm today.

Following last week's surge to 474,000, everyone will be seeking confirmation of whether the dramatic deterioration in labor conditions is permanent or merely "seasonally adjusted." We also get PPI and retail sales data, and the last of three auctions ($16 billion in 30 Year notes) which effectively puts the US over the ceiling. Lastly, Bernanke talks to the Senate Banking Committee on regulatory issues.

While DC may continue playing its debt ceiling soap opera, crunch time for the Treasury is approaching as the first of three auctions is on deck: the first one for $32 billion in 3 Year Notes. The total raised will be $72 billion without any offsets from maturities. Elsewhere, the Treasury will catch a $16 billion break after it settles $100 billion in Bill maturities offset by $84 billion in new issuance, yet still the net total of $56 billion in new debt seems to be a slight problem since as of Friday, there was just $23 billion in total capacity under the debt ceiling. Granted, the Treasury has already announced it is commencing the tapering off of other debt programs such as the State and Local Government (SLGs) which however will have at most $5-10 billion in favorable impact per month. It is also cutting its debt issuance forecast in half, likely due to an expectation of maturing old Bills without rolling these, a feat which will consume all if not more of the $108.9 billion in total cash available at the Treasury. So that's the math, and now back to the theater, where Politico reports speaker John Boehner "will call on Congress to offset a debt ceiling hike with spending cuts of a greater amount, an ambitious proposal that puts House Republicans on a collision course with Democrats who want much more modest spending restrictions attached to the vote."

As the market enjoys (and we use the term loosely) this brief lapse back into deflation, which given the economic contraction, so long anticipated at least by Zero Hedge, has finally materialized and put the ball straight back into Bernanke's monetary policy court, here is a brief reminder of reality: i) total debt subject to the ceiling increased by $2 billion overnight to $14,282,174, less than $12 billion away from a breach, and ii) more importantly, total securities held by the Fed increased by $27.3 billion in the past week to $2.5 trillion, an all time record. And yes, i) and ii) go hand in hand. Especially once the $2 trillion debt ceiling hike is announced.

More political theater out of DC:

• BOEHNER SAYS NO DEBT CEILING HIKE WITHOUT "REAL SPENDING CUTS AND BUDGET REFORMS"
• BOEHNER SAYS TIME TO TALK `ABOUT TRILLIONS' IN SPENDING CUTS
• BOEHNER SAYS `NOTHING OFF THE TABLE' EXCEPT 'RAISING TAXES'

So what exactly budget reform involves doing nothing to the revenue side of the income statement? Oh, the type that cuts spending, something Washington has not really succeeded in doing once in history? Good luck, in the meantime, we look forward to our new debt ceiling of $16.3 trillion to be announced in June or July at the latest, which will then have to be hiked to $18.5 trillion for capacity through March 2013.

After announcing it issued $265 billion in marketable debt to fund $445 billion in financing needs (including the wind down of $195 billion in SFP cash management bills), the Treasury has just announced it expects to need just $142 billion in Treasury issuance in the April-June quarter. This ridiculous amount is more than 50% lower than the previous estimate of $299 billion disclosed on January 31, and confirms that the Treasury is now scrambling to appear prudent to Congress with its debt needs. That it will need far, far more at the end of the day is beyond question. The reason for the over 50% plunge in borrowing needs "largely relates to higher receipts and lower outlays." Well, that's great - perhaps the treasury can explain why its preliminary cash need for the July-Sept quarter are $405 billion (compared to $396 billion a year earlier). Altogether, this advance estimate is ludicrous and shows that Geithner has totally lost a grip on reality. Yet on the other hand, in order to make his point, the market needs to crash (just like the May 6th crash killed any hope of an Audit the Fed bill). Looks like risk is duly noting its duty to act appropriately when record 2011 bonuses are at stake.