Debt Ceiling

Why Democrats Are Delighted With The Republican Spending Bill

Why were Democrats unable to hide their enthusiasm for the latest Omnibus spending bill proposed by House Republicans? Simple: because, as the Washington Examiner's Philip Klein writes, "Dems basically got everything. It's like they control House, Senate, & WH rather than the other way around."

Futures Rise On Government Funding Deal; Most Global Markets Closed For Holiday

With much of Europe and Asia, including the U.K., France, Germany and China markets closed for Labor Day, Asian stocks and the dollar rose buoyed by news that Congress had reached a deal to keep the US government funded through the end of September. S&P futures are up 4 points or 0.2%. Oil declined as rigs targeting crude in the U.S. rose for a fifteenth week and output from Libya rebounded.

Weekend Reading: Trumponomics – End Of 100 Days

So, here we are at the end of the first 100-days, with little progress being made toward the things that count the most with investors. With asset prices currently priced for perfection, the real risk is that of “disappointment.” It will likely pay to “err to the side of caution” for now as the risk is clearly tilted against reward for now.

Will Your Savings Get Caught In Government Shutdown Crossfire?

The potential shutdown would put a hiccup in federal bureaucracy for a few weeks, but that’s not the real reason Americans should be worried. Turns out, there may be an unseen economic danger that could affect you and your savings.

Is The Fed About To Drop The MOAB On Wall Street?

What all this warrants is extreme caution in Bubbleville. With geopolitical risk flashing bright red, half percent GDP growth, record high equity valuations and a delusional Fed that continues threatening interest rate normalization; the market’s reality check is surely imminent.

Will Macron Serve The Interests Of The American Deep State?

The accrued momentum in colossal sums of money flowing this way and that way has allowed unreality to reign in international finance for a while. But that is now flying apart. The ultimate reality, politicians and economists will soon discover, is that you can’t create your own reality.

June Rate Hike Odds Soar To 69% As Debt Ceiling Looms

It appears the hope that a centrist candidate will win the French election is enough to trump tumbling macro-economic data, disappointing earnings, and flailing inflation in the US economy. June rate hike odds have spiked to 69% overnight (even as debt ceiling risks begin to price in... and the dollar drops)...

FX Volatility Crashes As Traders Unwind "Existential Euro" Hedges

Heading into today's vote, FX options markets had seen massive demand for downside protection against a result that threatened the euro's existence. That didn't happen and so those hedges are being unwound en masse with the biggest drop in EURUSD implied vols in history...

David Stockman On The Anything President And The Everything Bubble

"The remaining bullishness and buy-the-dips robo-trading that temporarily sustained the dotcom bubble through March 2000 and the housing bubble through September 2008 will soon give way...  This century’s third great bubble’s days are numbered and in just a few digits."

Stocks, Dollar, Yields Rally On Mnuchin Tax Cut Comments

In a day full of upside catalyst for the reflation trade including the strong TIPS auction, the speculation that the Obamacare repeal effort is back on track, and perhaps best of all the absence of hard data (today's Philly Fed "soft data" was, well, quite soft), the dollar, the S&P and Treasury yields all rose, after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that "we are close to bring forward major tax reform", refuting speculation that it may be delayed into 2018.