Debt Ceiling

Moody's Says Failure To Raise Debt Limit Does Not Mean Default As Jack Lew Pleads To "Honor Our Obligations"

In an op-ed released today in the USA Today, the US Treasury Secretary takes his appeal to raise the U.S. debt target once again, this time to the $19.6 trillion number disclosed here previously, by pointing fingers at "some in Congress" who "are endangering this progress by once again manufacturing a crisis for our country. By waiting to the last minute to act on the debt limit, Congress could cause a terrible accident. This is not an abstraction; failure to raise the debt limit would mean devastating impacts for taxpayers, consumers and businesses." Only this is not really true...

Crisis Alpha & Why Volatility Is The 'Only' Asset Class

There is a tiresome debate as to whether or not volatility is an asset class. Let us end that debate... Volatility is the ONLY asset class. We are all volatility traders and the only question is whether we realize it or not.  If you disagree do me a favor and imagine you are an alien that just landed on earth and you know nothing about investing.

When Is A Ceiling Not A Ceiling?

When corrupt politicians do as they are told by their keepers on Wall Street and in the boardrooms of S&P 500 mega-corps....

Presenting America's New Debt Ceiling: $19,600,000,000,000

The only certain outcome from the melodramatic debt ceiling fight over the next several days, is the following: the US is about to have a brand spanking new debt ceiling, one that should last it until March of 2017: $19,600,000,000,000.

Paul Ryan Seals Republican Support, Declares Bid For House Speaker

One week ago he said he has no interest in the Speaker position, but so much can change in one week. Moments ago Paul Ryan sent out a letter to the GOP announcing he would run for speaker of the house. And since he had previously said said he would only enter the speaker’s race if he could lock up support from three wings of the fractious party, in the space of just 3 days this week, he appears to have done just that.

US Treasury Postpones Next Week's 2-Year Treasury Auction Due To Debt-Ceiling Roadblock

Moments ago the US Treasury promptly removed any latent optimism that this latest debt ceiling crisis will somehow be magically fixed on its own after it announced that it would postpone the two-year note auction previously scheduled for Tuesday, as the impasse over the debt limit constrains the nation’s borrowing. “Due to debt ceiling constraints, there is a risk that Treasury would not be able to settle the two-year note”

Futures Firm On Hope Draghi Will Give Green Light To BTFD

After yesterday's dramatic late day market rout catalyzed by the tumble in the biotech sector in general, and Valeant in particular, and foreseen in its entirety by Gartman who went bullish just hours before, this morning US equity futures and European stocks have recouped some losses on the recursive, and traditional, hope that Mario Draghi will say something to push risk higher when he speaks in 2 hours at the ECB's press conference in Malta. And yet, just like Yellen a month ago, Draghi faces the paradox of reflexivity that after years of being ignored, is the "new thing" in town: how does he intervene and demonstrate he is readier than ever to set up stimulus, without panicking investors over euro area’s health.

Traders Dump T-Bills Despite Lew's "Hope" US Avoids Crisis

The bloodbathery in Treasury Bills continues this morning with11/12/15 Bills pushing up to 14bps (from 0bps on Friday). Despite the "hopes" of Treasury Secretary Jack Lew that the US avoids a crisis, he warns "there's no margin for error" and with GOP Leadership talks still ongoing (as Paul Ryan lays down his demands), it appears markets are not taking any chances for now.

Bond Market Begins To Panic: Bids For 4-Week Bill Auction Crater, Yield Spikes

Less than two weeks ago, when previewing the upcoming debt ceiling battle which is shaping up to be far more contentiously than most expected, we said to "keep an eye on T-Bill yields for the turning point when the market decides this situation is becoming serious." And while things turned "serious" yesterday, moments ago the bond market officially entered into "panic" territory.

WTF Chart Of The Day: Debt-Ceiling-Driven Panic-Selling In T-Bills Sparks Buying Frenzy In Stocks

With less than 2 weeks left until the "debt ceiling accident" that Jack lew has warned about, T-Bills (maturing beyond Nov 3rd) are being dumped wholesale. Oct 29th Bills are trading -1bps but Nov 12th Bills are up 6bps at 12bps, the 1-month WI is at 16bps. Of course, equity markets will be the last to notice and algos appear to be seeing this as a panic-buying-opportunity.